Well, this division had more offensive firepower than anyone except for the Big 12 South. Rice, Tulsa, Houston and even the lowly SMU Mustangs had a multitude of offensive stars who made every week an adventure. The question is, who will rise to the top this year since the Owls lose Dillard and Clement, Tulsa loses three offensive weapons and Houston has heavy losses on defense. Tulane is another wildcard that just can't seem to escape the basement, despite having good players in recent years. Let's get to the analysis
Houston- The Cougars have all the tools on offense with Case Keenum at QB, who threw for more than 5000 yards and 44 TDs while being productive on the ground as well. With six experienced and talented receivers, including superstars Patrick Edwards and Tyrone Carrier, Keenum's productivity should stay at 4,500-5,000 yards. TB Bryce Beall should also be a star, but he may have to run between the tackles this year since the OL loses both starting tackles. The defense is not as strong because they only return four starters. Despite returning two solid LBs in CJ Cavness and Marcus McGraw the DL will struggle a lot, and in return the secondary may get hit pretty hard. Brandon Brinkley is a very good cover corner, but considering this wasn't the best defense last year, things will go downhill fast. Hopefully for them the Cougars will go 2-2 in non-conference, but road games with Mississippi St. and Oklahoma St. and a home game with Texas Tech could easily produce just one win (against Northwestern St). Houston could get to six or wins if the defense produces even a little bit, but road tilts in conference with UTEP and Tulsa could cause them to fall below the even mark. I'll say six wins, seven max.
Rice- Very few teams in the country were hit harder by the NFL draft and players leaving early than Rice. QB Chase Clement, WR Jarrett Dillard and TE/HB James Casey were outstanding last season and provide huge voids to fill. I know Nick Fanuzzi is the front-runner at QB, being an Alabama transfer and all, but if Rice wants to return to a bowl game, they will go with John Thomas Shepherd. No matter who starts, the person will have some weapons in WR Toren Dixon and Corbin Smiter, with Patrick Randolph an up-and-comer. The RB situation is highly unsettled since CJ Ugokwe decided not to return, but TB Shane Turner with his 4.4 speed could be a nice addition if given the chance. However, I think Turner should alternate carries with the veteran Marcus Knox who has never really gotten a chance to show his potential. The OL will need to gel quickly after losing three starters if the offense is to be productive. The defense was never on track last year, but with nine starters back, including productive DEs Scott Solomon and Cheta Ozougwu, who could have big-time seasons. The LB corps returns intact, but only Terrance Garmon was of note last season, so they will have to step it up this fall for the D to be successful. Despite losing a decent CB, the secondary should do fine thanks to Andrew Sendejo, one of the conference's best free safeties and CB Chris Jammer, who will only get better since he is just a sophomore. A win against Vanderbilt in week 4 will be important to Rice if they either want to get to 2-2, or capture their first win of the season since they start off on the road three times. The conference schedule is manageable with Tulsa and UTEP winnable but tough games at home. However, as much as I want to say they get to .500, 4-5 wins is more realistic.
SMU- There is a lot of confusion over who should start at TB for the Mustangs, but once that is settled, the offense will be spectacular. QB Bo Levi Mitchell is a great young QB who should improve his TD-to-INT ratio with experience. Mitchell should count his lucky stars he has potential All-Americans in Aldrick Robinson and Emmanuel Sanders returning at WR, while Cole Beasley and Terrance Wilkerson should be contributors as well. I think Shawnbrey McNeal should start at RB since he was a former track champ and has good speed, but Chris Butler could easily win the job. I may be wrong in every possible way, but I think the secondary was only as bad as it was because they had to defend the passing attacks of UTEP, Rice, Texas Tech, Tulsa and Houston over the course of the season. With another year playing together, CBs Bryan McCann and Derrius Bell should show significant improvement. The LBs are extremely good and underrated with Youri Yenga and Pete Fleps returning. If Texas A&M transfer Chase Kennemer is a solid LB, then this could be a real strength. While the DL is not a fearsome foursome, the non-conference provides a chance at 3-1 going to Wazzou and facing Navy at home. While a road game at TCU is daunting, never underestimate the upset potential of a rivalry game. I see as many as seven or eight wins if they can win at Washington St. and hold course against Rice and UTEP at home in conference. I'll call for seven on the safe side.
Tulane- If early projections are right and the Green Wave are reportedly moving Joe Kemp to starting QB, then this season could be a disaster. Kevin Moore may have had a horrible TD-to-INT ratio but he needed more time and better weapons to deliver. Having RB Andre Anderson back and healthy could only help matters as he's a 1,500 yard rusher easy, but he will need a backup to emerge since he can't carry the offensive load by himself. Whoever starts at QB may not have any superstars to throw to, but freshman DJ Banks has good speed and a nice vertical and should make waves. Alan Mitchell and Jeremy Williams are also good WRs and TE Cody Banks is a good weapon to have at 6-4 in the redzone (now if he can only produce TDs). The defense will need at least one playmaker to establish himself if Tulane is to finish out of last place in the west. The DL returns three starters but no one has any standout potential or statistics to point to a big 2009 season. The LB corps is depleted, but Travis Burks showed promise last season. FS Corey Sonnier and CB Charles Harris have potential as coverage guys and if they can continue to develop, the secondary may not be so bad. The non-conference schedule produces two sure losses (BYU and LSU), but McNeese St. and at Army are highly-winnable. The conference schedule is brutal as road games with Rice and UCF may be there best bet for wins, but a home game against Marshall is there for the taking too. However, as much as I think this team could improve, they may see 2 wins yet again, 3 at most.
Tulsa- We will know for sure by mid-season if Tulsa's success last year was predicated on the OL dominating almost every opponent, or if the scheme was near perfection. Tulsa only gets 2 O-lineman back, but if QB Jacob Bower is as good as advertised, then the offense will keep on rolling. RB Jamad Williams has breakout potential and with WRs AJ Whitmore and Demaris Johnson also able to produce on the ground, the running game should flourish once more. At WR there is a ton of talent, including Johnson, Whitmore, Trae Johnson and Slick Shelley, who all could improve upon last year's numbers. Charles Clay, at FB, is another threat both running and receiving, so it will be hard to stop this offense. The defense was as good as it had to be last season and should be even better with eight starters returning. In the secondary CBs John Destin and Kenny Sims were outstanding against some great passing offenses while safeties Charles Davis and incumbent starter DeAundre Brown (2 INTs) were very productive. The LBs are among the best in C-USA and once again should do well, especially with all the weapons the rest of the division lest on offense. The D-line produced at times last season, but a better pass rush would help them win the division. The Golden Hurricane may have to hope for a 2-2 non-conference record since they play at Oklahoma and against Boise St. Facing UTEP and Southern Miss on the road in conference could be what costs them the division title as a Nov. 7th date with Houston looms large. I see as many as eight wins, but seven looks to be the right amount.
UTEP- As with many teams in the west, a good running game needs to be established for the Miners to have an explosive offense. Daniel Palmer seems to be the RB of the future, but Vernon Frazier had the best numbers last season while Donald Buckram isn't giving up the starting spot so easily. Assuming one or two good runners can emerge and produce, QB Trevor Vittatoe will have an outstanding season. With outstanding receivers Jeff Moturi and Kris Adams returning and capable backups, the passing game will flourish. Vittatoe should also have good productivity with four starters back on the O-line and QB/WR James Thomas II should be a nice wild-card player who can shake things up at any time. The Miners are just like Tulsa in the fact they have plenty of experience back on the D-line but no real pass rush to speak of. That will have to change immediately. The secondary could be a real strength with Melvin Stephenson, Cornelius Brown and Clarence Ward all good cover corners who can make the big plays at any moment. Hopefully freshman safety DeShawn Grayson can step up and if he does, it will come down to Braxton Amy coming back from injury to make this an outstanding unit. The LBs are inexperienced, but I think can produce if given the chance, especially with Da'Mon Cromartie-Smith as a vocal leader. Losing Jose Martinez will be a big blow at K, but apparently he has a strong leg with a 72 yd FG in the spring according to Phil Steele. The schedule should provide a 2-2 start out of conference, unless the Miners pull an upset against Kansas in El Paso. Beating Houston and Tulsa at home will be crucial to taking the division title, as will a road tilt with SMU, who I consider the biggest dark-horse in the conference. Anyways, I'll call for 8-9 wins, with 10 being an outside shot if everything goes well.
Well, I'll try and get to the MWC tomorrow and maybe even the independents later this evening. Both sets are very intriguing with Navy and Army both running the option now, which should increase wins for the lackluster Cadets. I like the depth of the MWC, even the supposed bottom-feeders. The league was so top-heavy last year with BYU, TCU and Utah that everyone just assumed the rest of the conference wasn't worth anything. However, as you'll see soon, that wasn't the case.
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Friday, June 19, 2009
C-USA Eastern Division
This is one conference that had some teams play well above their potential (Rice, ECU, Tulsa) and others that fell far below expectations (SMU, Houston, Southern Miss). Now, in 2009, there really is no clear-cut favorite because a lot of the big guns left school early as did their QBs, but other key components return for certain programs. Anyhow, without a dominant recent program like Troy in the Sun Belt and Boise St. in the WAC, this year's title race is wide open.
East Carolina- The defense is the main place to start here with superstar FS Van Eskridge and with a little help from CBs Dekota Marshall and Travis Simmons, this could be one of the country's best secondaries. Nick Simmons and Jeremy Chambliss are also quality LBs and with an experienced DL returning, ECU will have an outstanding defense. DL Jay Ross and CJ Wilson will probably make All C-USA if they stay healthy and the rest will be up to the offense. The offense needs to stay on track with a challenging schedule that includes at WV, UNC and home to VA Tech. While they could obviously win all three games, two wins there is more reasonable. Patrick Pinkney is an experienced QB who should do very well, especially with Darryl Freeney, Jamar Bryant and Dwayne Harris all quality WRs. If RB Norman Whitley remains suspended it may not matter thanks to Dominique Lindsay and Brandon Jackson, a very talented transfer frm Kentucky. The OL returns intact which means ECU could start well and gain momentum early. ECU could get to 9 or 10 wins by the end of the season, but I see a C-USA that is far too challenging colliding with a brutal non-conference schedule as well. I'll go with 8 wins.
Marshall- The Thundering Herd barely lost three games last year and could have easily been bowl-eligible, but they will only go as far as their QBs take them. Whether it's Brian Anderson or Mark Cann, whoever wins the job will have All-American candidate Cody Slate at TE to throw to. Darius Marshall will need to continue his productivity at TB and if he can, the offense should be ok. However, the Herd will need someone to take the pressure off of Slate and that man could be WR Bryant Milligan. If not Milligan, then JUCO transfer Charles Walker or Courtney Edmondson will need to step up their game. Mario Harvey and Brandon Burns should be the leaders of the defense at LB, but the efficiency of the defense will depend upon starting CBs DeQuan Bembry and TJ Drakeford. Each player had 1 INT apiece and that just will not do in C-USA. Only 2 picks from your starting CBs is awful. The DEs are also outstanding so the Herd should be an improving team and will only be helped by having very dependable players at K and P also returning. The non-conference schedule isn't too brutal, but home games with SMU and UAB will determine whether they go past the break even point. I'll call for 6 wins.
Memphis- This must have been the hot city to go to two years ago because the Tigers are acquiring a lot of depth at already strong positions thanks to transfers. Miami (FL) transfers Jermaine McKenzie (WR) and DajLeon Farr (TE) will arrive to help out the fantastic duo of Duke Calhoun and Carlos Singleton. Singleton has the potential to be a dominant wideout ala Jarrett Dillard at Rice, but he hasn't had that one magical season yet. He may have that in 2009 thanks to Arkelon Hall returning, who had ok numbers, but will need to do much better with a talented receiving duo. This may be hard because only one OL returns and not just Hall will be affected, but Curtis Steele, who had a 1,000 yard season last year. If the running game can't produce, a very talented offense may go in a tailspin. The Tigers will get help in the secondary from Auburn transfer DeRon Furr and they may need it because CBs DA Griffin and Deante Lamar had less productivity than Marshall's starting CBs (just one INT here total). The good news is all of the LBs return and Derrick Odom comes in from LSU to help bolster the group. Memphis is yet another team I see going 2-2 in non-conference play from this division, but the road game at Middle Tennessee is not a given. The best Memphis can hope for is 5 wins, maybe 6, if they pull off a road upset. However, I see 4 most realistic, 3 if they can't get by MT.
Southern Miss- The Golden Eagles have a very healthy offense returning, but they do lose one key starter in TE Shawn Nelson. That could be a key loss if DeAndre Brown isn't healthy after his horrific bowl injury. However, Brown should be fine, and with Nelson gone, WRs Freddie Parham and Gerald Baptiste should produce good numbers, especially with Brown drawing double-coverage from other teams. With the entire OL returning, QB Austin Davis should keep his impressive numbers and stud RB Damion Fletcher could easily top 1500-1700 yards and have good receiving numbers. The Eagles have a very good defense returning, and may want to consider adding a Rover position instead of a 3rd LB to get Justin Wilson into the lineup more since he had 4 INTs with limited amount of starts. Wilson could be backing up Chico Hunter and besides those two, the secondary is outstanding thanks to CBs CJ Bailey and Andre Watson. That will help a lot in the pass-happy, high-octane C-USA. The DL is deep and talented, but two new starting LBs will have to produce for the Eagles to improve on their 7 wins from last year. A road game at Houston and the finale at ECU will go a long way in determining the conference champ, but I see ECU coming through in that game. However, if Souther Miss takes care of business in their other conference games, they may still come away as Eastern Division champs. UVa, Kansas and Louisville are not easy non-conference games, but the Eagles could come away 3-0, the biggie will be Kansas. However, I call for a slip up or two and for ECU to win the East division, which means 8 wins for Southern Miss.
UAB- I haven't seen a team that relies on one player this much since Ramon Flanigan was playing at SMU in the early-to-mid 90s. QB Joe Webb has one last shot at leading his Blazers to a bowl game and this may be his best shot with a deep, but not spectacular group of receivers coming back and potential 1,000 yard rusher Rashaud Slaughter. The key for Webb will be making plays with his feet and getting the ball to do-it-all WR Frantrell Forrest who could surpass 1500 yards all purpose with his KRs added in. Since the entire offense returns, all 11 starters, the entire unit can only get better. The Blazers have some solid players on defense, but no one returning who will scare opposing offenses. The DL returns intact, but that area needs a lot of improvement for this team to be successful. Terrell Springs was underwhelming at CB last year, but Brandon Carlisle did well in limited action, so if the pass D can hold up in a few games, UAB may pull an upset. The LBs are also hit-or-miss but I like this team's potential. Webb can only improve on a 10-to-16 TD-to-INT ratio and Rice and SMU are winnable home games to start the season. If they can beat Troy or Texas A&M on the road in the next two, then a .500 season is not too far-fetched. While they will probably get 4 wins, 5 at most, I see a bowl-eligibility season coming if the team gels quickly.
UCF- With the Knights losing QB Michael Greco due to his move to DB, the offense may be in good shape since incumbent Rob Calabrese won't have to worry about being pulled for a more experienced player. Calabrese will need WR Brian Watters or Kamar Aiken to step up to be really efficient through the air. This is even more important because the RBs are ok, but not necessarily reliable. Brynn Harvey and Ronnie Weaver are the RBs right now, but one needs to emerge as a feature back. UCF doesn't need another Kevin Smith, although that certainly wouldn't hurt matters, but just one player who can take the bulk of the carries and gain 1,000 yards would work wonders. Having a patchwork OL with two possible freshman starting won't help. DEs Jarvig Geathers and Bruce Miller are outstanding DEs and they will need to keep up their impressive sack totals because UCF loses a lot of experience in the secondary. While FS Derrick Hallman may be a possible all-conference performer, he can't patrol the whole secondary. Lawrence Young and Chance Henderson are two dominant LBs, so the bulk of the Knights' success will depend on their front seven. Losing a great KR in Joe Burnett will also hurt UCF. Unless UCF pulls an upset against Miami (FL) they may have five certain losses because road games at Southern Miss, ECU and Texas and a homecoming date with Houston are very tough tasks. I hate to be negative because George O'Leary has been successful here, but I see 3-4 wins max. Hey, every conference has to have a bottom-feeder.
Hopefully in a few hours I will get to the west division, where the real meat-and-potatoes lies. That's where all the high-powered offenses really come into play and a ton of exciting games await anyone who has CSTV where their games are usually featured.
East Carolina- The defense is the main place to start here with superstar FS Van Eskridge and with a little help from CBs Dekota Marshall and Travis Simmons, this could be one of the country's best secondaries. Nick Simmons and Jeremy Chambliss are also quality LBs and with an experienced DL returning, ECU will have an outstanding defense. DL Jay Ross and CJ Wilson will probably make All C-USA if they stay healthy and the rest will be up to the offense. The offense needs to stay on track with a challenging schedule that includes at WV, UNC and home to VA Tech. While they could obviously win all three games, two wins there is more reasonable. Patrick Pinkney is an experienced QB who should do very well, especially with Darryl Freeney, Jamar Bryant and Dwayne Harris all quality WRs. If RB Norman Whitley remains suspended it may not matter thanks to Dominique Lindsay and Brandon Jackson, a very talented transfer frm Kentucky. The OL returns intact which means ECU could start well and gain momentum early. ECU could get to 9 or 10 wins by the end of the season, but I see a C-USA that is far too challenging colliding with a brutal non-conference schedule as well. I'll go with 8 wins.
Marshall- The Thundering Herd barely lost three games last year and could have easily been bowl-eligible, but they will only go as far as their QBs take them. Whether it's Brian Anderson or Mark Cann, whoever wins the job will have All-American candidate Cody Slate at TE to throw to. Darius Marshall will need to continue his productivity at TB and if he can, the offense should be ok. However, the Herd will need someone to take the pressure off of Slate and that man could be WR Bryant Milligan. If not Milligan, then JUCO transfer Charles Walker or Courtney Edmondson will need to step up their game. Mario Harvey and Brandon Burns should be the leaders of the defense at LB, but the efficiency of the defense will depend upon starting CBs DeQuan Bembry and TJ Drakeford. Each player had 1 INT apiece and that just will not do in C-USA. Only 2 picks from your starting CBs is awful. The DEs are also outstanding so the Herd should be an improving team and will only be helped by having very dependable players at K and P also returning. The non-conference schedule isn't too brutal, but home games with SMU and UAB will determine whether they go past the break even point. I'll call for 6 wins.
Memphis- This must have been the hot city to go to two years ago because the Tigers are acquiring a lot of depth at already strong positions thanks to transfers. Miami (FL) transfers Jermaine McKenzie (WR) and DajLeon Farr (TE) will arrive to help out the fantastic duo of Duke Calhoun and Carlos Singleton. Singleton has the potential to be a dominant wideout ala Jarrett Dillard at Rice, but he hasn't had that one magical season yet. He may have that in 2009 thanks to Arkelon Hall returning, who had ok numbers, but will need to do much better with a talented receiving duo. This may be hard because only one OL returns and not just Hall will be affected, but Curtis Steele, who had a 1,000 yard season last year. If the running game can't produce, a very talented offense may go in a tailspin. The Tigers will get help in the secondary from Auburn transfer DeRon Furr and they may need it because CBs DA Griffin and Deante Lamar had less productivity than Marshall's starting CBs (just one INT here total). The good news is all of the LBs return and Derrick Odom comes in from LSU to help bolster the group. Memphis is yet another team I see going 2-2 in non-conference play from this division, but the road game at Middle Tennessee is not a given. The best Memphis can hope for is 5 wins, maybe 6, if they pull off a road upset. However, I see 4 most realistic, 3 if they can't get by MT.
Southern Miss- The Golden Eagles have a very healthy offense returning, but they do lose one key starter in TE Shawn Nelson. That could be a key loss if DeAndre Brown isn't healthy after his horrific bowl injury. However, Brown should be fine, and with Nelson gone, WRs Freddie Parham and Gerald Baptiste should produce good numbers, especially with Brown drawing double-coverage from other teams. With the entire OL returning, QB Austin Davis should keep his impressive numbers and stud RB Damion Fletcher could easily top 1500-1700 yards and have good receiving numbers. The Eagles have a very good defense returning, and may want to consider adding a Rover position instead of a 3rd LB to get Justin Wilson into the lineup more since he had 4 INTs with limited amount of starts. Wilson could be backing up Chico Hunter and besides those two, the secondary is outstanding thanks to CBs CJ Bailey and Andre Watson. That will help a lot in the pass-happy, high-octane C-USA. The DL is deep and talented, but two new starting LBs will have to produce for the Eagles to improve on their 7 wins from last year. A road game at Houston and the finale at ECU will go a long way in determining the conference champ, but I see ECU coming through in that game. However, if Souther Miss takes care of business in their other conference games, they may still come away as Eastern Division champs. UVa, Kansas and Louisville are not easy non-conference games, but the Eagles could come away 3-0, the biggie will be Kansas. However, I call for a slip up or two and for ECU to win the East division, which means 8 wins for Southern Miss.
UAB- I haven't seen a team that relies on one player this much since Ramon Flanigan was playing at SMU in the early-to-mid 90s. QB Joe Webb has one last shot at leading his Blazers to a bowl game and this may be his best shot with a deep, but not spectacular group of receivers coming back and potential 1,000 yard rusher Rashaud Slaughter. The key for Webb will be making plays with his feet and getting the ball to do-it-all WR Frantrell Forrest who could surpass 1500 yards all purpose with his KRs added in. Since the entire offense returns, all 11 starters, the entire unit can only get better. The Blazers have some solid players on defense, but no one returning who will scare opposing offenses. The DL returns intact, but that area needs a lot of improvement for this team to be successful. Terrell Springs was underwhelming at CB last year, but Brandon Carlisle did well in limited action, so if the pass D can hold up in a few games, UAB may pull an upset. The LBs are also hit-or-miss but I like this team's potential. Webb can only improve on a 10-to-16 TD-to-INT ratio and Rice and SMU are winnable home games to start the season. If they can beat Troy or Texas A&M on the road in the next two, then a .500 season is not too far-fetched. While they will probably get 4 wins, 5 at most, I see a bowl-eligibility season coming if the team gels quickly.
UCF- With the Knights losing QB Michael Greco due to his move to DB, the offense may be in good shape since incumbent Rob Calabrese won't have to worry about being pulled for a more experienced player. Calabrese will need WR Brian Watters or Kamar Aiken to step up to be really efficient through the air. This is even more important because the RBs are ok, but not necessarily reliable. Brynn Harvey and Ronnie Weaver are the RBs right now, but one needs to emerge as a feature back. UCF doesn't need another Kevin Smith, although that certainly wouldn't hurt matters, but just one player who can take the bulk of the carries and gain 1,000 yards would work wonders. Having a patchwork OL with two possible freshman starting won't help. DEs Jarvig Geathers and Bruce Miller are outstanding DEs and they will need to keep up their impressive sack totals because UCF loses a lot of experience in the secondary. While FS Derrick Hallman may be a possible all-conference performer, he can't patrol the whole secondary. Lawrence Young and Chance Henderson are two dominant LBs, so the bulk of the Knights' success will depend on their front seven. Losing a great KR in Joe Burnett will also hurt UCF. Unless UCF pulls an upset against Miami (FL) they may have five certain losses because road games at Southern Miss, ECU and Texas and a homecoming date with Houston are very tough tasks. I hate to be negative because George O'Leary has been successful here, but I see 3-4 wins max. Hey, every conference has to have a bottom-feeder.
Hopefully in a few hours I will get to the west division, where the real meat-and-potatoes lies. That's where all the high-powered offenses really come into play and a ton of exciting games await anyone who has CSTV where their games are usually featured.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
WAC Preview
Well, this has been a one-horse league forever, and it's hard to see that changing anytime soon. Personally, I feel that two teams need to move to the Mountain West conference, preferably Nevada and Boise State and leave Fresno State and others to duel it out for the WAC title. Then, you promote Montana from Div I-AA and watch them become another Marshall as they flourish in a much lower-tier league. And if 11 teams is too much for the MWC without two divisions and a conference title game, then you move Fresno or relegate New Mexico or UNLV to the WAC. Too bad all of this will never happen. Anyways, let's get to the preview.
Boise St.- Uh oh, it looks like the alphabetical order setup dictates that we're shooting our wad early with the Broncos. This team should again dominate with a home game against Nevada and only one real road test, at Fresno St. standing in their way. Sophomore QB Kellen Moore may not improve much upon last year's stats with only good WR back, Austin Pettis back, but he does have a good TE in Kyle Efaw returning as well. Ian Johnson's dramatic drop-off in productivity last year was BSU's gain as Jeremy Avery proved to be a fabulous second banana. DJ Harper is another good back that will produce behind a good OL. The defense should still be good despite losing 6 starters and the strength is in the secondary with CBs Kyle Wilson and Brandyn Thompson and FS Jeron Johnson. Derrell Acrey is an ok LB, but Aaron Tevis was just as productive taking fewer snaps. They will need dramatic improvement at LB to remain a top-flight program. The DL can rush the passer, but they will need to stop the outstanding ground games of Nevada and Fresno State to win this conference again. I will call for 9 or 10 wins yet again for this program, but playing against the likes of Oregon and Tulsa will provide some tough tests.
Fresno St.- If the Bulldogs are smart they will rely on a good OL and the talented backfield trio of Lonyae Miller, Anthony Harding and Ryan Mathews to help the new QB, whoever it may be, ease into his new role. That backfield should make for one of the country's deepest units. Another bright spot for the new QB will be the return of Seyi Ajirotutu and Marlon Moore at WR, with Devon Wylie and Rashad Evans providing plenty of depth. The one thing that could derail the Bulldogs' season is the defense which was struggling during a four-game stretch against Toledo, UCLA, Idaho and Hawaii last season (149 points). Now, the offense was able to make up for that ineptness and win 3 of the 4 games, but they cannot rely on that again this season. They do return 8 starters, but the secondary is pitiful. Their leader in INTs had 2 and is projected to be a backup while the DL has potential at best, with only Chris Carter being able to rush the passer. The LBs also struggled to produce so without a ton of improvement I see a down season for this usually stable program. This may be pessimistic, but I call them for only 5 or 6 wins as the schedule is very tough and the WAC is improving each season, especially the teams at the bottom.
Hawaii- It's best to get the defense out of the way because the glaring weakness. It's not that Hawaii was bad defensively last season, they were actually not bad, but with 2 returning starters, expect a serious step backwards. The good news is they have DE John Fonoti who could be a rising star, but they will need Oregon State transfer Mana Silva and CBs Melvin Hopkins and Jeramy Bryant to find their way quickly as new starters. Hopefully, the Warriors' offense will be a lot more settled now that they have chosen Greg Alexander to be the starter at QB. He doesn't throw a lot of picks and is very accurate, so SB/WR Kealoha Pilares and WRs, Malcolm Lane, Greg Salas and Daniel Lofton could have monster seasons. Lofton could be a huge star as he has the pedigree of being James Lofton's son, a soon-to-be NFL Hall of Famer. I also like Leon Wright-Jackson at TB who could produce good numbers for a RB in this system. The OL needs to replace 2 OGs, so assuming they do that with even decent players, Alexander should have plenty of time to throw and approach 4,000 yards. This is an offense that should be just like Texas Tech's in how they keep producing effective passers. The schedule is rough with Boise State and Fresno State coming to the big island, games they would probably lose anyways, and road games at UNLV, Louisiana Tech, Nevada and San Jose St. How they handle those tests will determine if they get to my max prediction of 6-7 wins.
Idaho- The first thing to note here is that the Vandals really need to break a stretch of losing and gain just 4-5 wins to gain some momentum within the program. All this could be accomplished with winnable road games at New Mexico St. and Northern Illinois early in the season. San Diego St. will travel to the Kibble Dome and haven't been much of a threat in recent seasons so it remains to be seen what will happen there. RB Deonte' Jackson has major potential and should be used as more of a feature back with Princeton McCarty capable of spelling him when he needs a break. Nathan Enderle is a good QB and thankfully he has two good WRs returning because he loses all-world TE Eddie Williams. Idaho does lose 3 starters on the OL but they still have experience from their college careers, just not in 2008. Isaac Butts should be the leader on defense as he is a CB with a lot of potential and decent size at 6". Virdell Larkins should continue to provide range at FS, but JoJo Dickson and Robert Siavii need to produce at LB for this defense to be solid, especially with a lot of good running teams around the conference. There are no outstanding pass rushers coming back, so if they can't get to the passer, that will only hurt the secondary and could cost them a few games. This is a team that has little room for error and I will call for 4-5 wins at best, but if things start going wrong early, that might be optimistic.
Louisiana Tech- The key for the Bulldogs will be finding a viable backup to take the pressure off of all-conference RB Daniel Porter, especially with all 5 starters on the OL returning. If Myke Compton doesn't fit that bill, then it should be time to turn to incoming freshman Tyrone Duplessis who not only ran track in HS but was a highly-rated all-purpose back by Rivals.com. Ross Jenkins returns at QB and will only improve with experience, but RP Stuart and Cruz Williams needs to emerge as another threat at WR to compliment Phillip Livas. I think LT will be fine on defense despite losing two good starters at LB and having no returning CBs. I think Terry Carter will be fine at one corner and with Deon Young and Antonio Baker returning at the safety spots, the secondary might surprisingly be a strength. The DL is very good as they have productivity in numbers rather than just a single star. Losing a starting K always looks bad, but when that K only hit 50% of FGs, then it's a good thing and Livas is a stud returning kicks and punts. Assuming they win at Navy they should go .500 in non-conference and all their conference road games are winnable, but at Fresno and Nevada won't be easy. If they break even on those two, I see possibly 8 wins, although 6-7 looks more likely.
Nevada- This Wolf Pack team has a legitimate shot at breaking Boise St.'s stranglehold on the conference. Even though they have to travel to the blue turf, the defense is good enough to hold up this season. DEs Dontay Moch and Kevin Basped are two of the nations best at getting to the passer and despite an inexperienced LB corps, the secondary will help the defense stay strong. Mo Harvey and Jonathon Amaya are good safeties who make QBs pay for bad decisions and Isaiah Frey and Antoine Thompson are good cover corners. Assuming the defense keeps the plot and holds steady, Nevada will have an outstanding season. On offense, if Luke Lippincott can return to his 2007 form, then he, Vai Taua, and QB Colin Kaepernick may be the best three running threats on one team in the country. Taua and Kaepernick combined for over 2,600 yards, 32 TDs and both averaged over 6 yards per carry. They lose two starters on the OL but a JUCO transfer and new C Kenneth Ackerman, who has started at G before, will ease the transition. The question is, why would Nevada throw unless they have to? They do have a solid TE in Virgil Green and Chris Wellington is a viable deep threat, but the Wolf Pack need to just wear down teams on the DL and they should do fine. A road game at Notre Dame and Missouri at home seem like two key tests, but Missouri has upset potential written all over it as the Tigers have no QB with real experience. If Nevada can stay focused and not look ahead to Nov. 27th when they play at Boise St., then 10-11 wins is well within their grasp. The key will be the defense staying strong as the offense should continue to flourish.
New Mexico St.- The Aggies will have a rough season in 2009 as their head coach is relying on a lot of JUCO transfers to fill in the holes and while that can work well for a limited time, it's not good for the program's long-term goals. The other problem is, Jeff Fleming, one of those transfers expected to fill in at QB, has a daunting task of replacing Chase Holbrook, who was amazingly efficient for a QB on a bad team. The good news is Marquell Colston and Tonny Glynn could be decent RBs if they got more carries and Marcus Anderson is a solid #1 WR. Julius Fleming is the only WR with any real experience, so two JUCO players in William Bullock and Marcus Allen better learn the system right away or this will be a horrific offense. The OL is decent, but Jeff Fleming better not take too much time while he's in the pocket. The defense only has one plus, and that is return of 3 starting LBs, but when you consider this defense allowed 30+ points nine times, that's not necessarily a good thing. Davon House is a solid CB but unless Jonte Green can shutdown the other side, the defense will get eaten alive again. The first two games will be the key point in NMSU season as they play Idaho and Prairie View A&M at home, which could result in wins, but then things go downhill. New Mexico and San Diego St. may be winnable games if the Aggies got them in Las Cruces, but on the road are more than likely losses. I'll call 1-2 wins being optimistic unless they pull a shocking upset or two.
San Jose St.- The Spartans are a very confusing team because they have most of the pieces on defense to succeed, but the offense was just pitiful last year. Carl and Duke Ihenacho were two of the best defenders on any team in the country last year and should remain All-WAC candidates again this year. DT Adonis Davis and DE Mohamed Marah should increase their production this year, and assuming they do that, the new CBs will be helped out immensely. Brandon Driver should provide immediate help as a JUCO transfer and should get a lot of help from Duke Ihenacho who plays the same type of position Brian Uhrlacher did when he was at New Mexico (which means he will be everywhere). The offense, on the other hand, may have some problems getting started despite the return of Kyle Reed as a starter. Reed never developed much of a flow as a starter last year and needs to be more efficient than 6 yards a pass attempt. Having WR Terrance Williams and Kevin Jurovich back should help him achieve that goal, but not as much as having his entire OL back to protect him and RB Patrick Perry finally healthy. Perry should team up with another JUCO, Lamon Muldrow to make for an exciting running game. Muldrow doesn't have top-flight speed, but the ground game should be focused on wearing down opponents and setting up an efficient passing game. The non-conference is tough but a win at Stanford or at home to Utah will set them up nicely. All of their home games should be wins, except Nevada who will be a tough test while going 2-2 on the road in the conference should actually be a positive as none of the road tests are easy. I'll call for a break-even season, maybe 7 wins. This all depens on Reed though and how he progresses with his WRs.
Utah St.- This is truly the wildcard team of the WAC because they will only go as far as QB Diondre Borel takes them. He has a lot of help surrounding him at the WR spot with strength in numbers thanks to Nnamdi Gachem, Stanley Morrison, Omar Sawyer and TE Doug Barbour. The running game should be ok with newcomer Michael Smith, but I would prefer to see them stick with Robert Turbin or Curtis Marsh who weren't bad. The main threat on the ground could still be Borel, but he needs to limit how many hits he takes because if he's gone, so goes the Aggies season. The defense, much like a lot of other teams in the WAC will depend on the secondary and a new CB from the JUCO ranks; this time it's Rajric Coleman. He steps into an ok position where FS James Brindley is very consistent and he can learn from Kejon Murphy, a good cover man. The DL, much like the WR corps, has no stars but a lot of depth and will provide solid play. The LBs should be good thanks to Paul Igboeli and Bobby Wagner. The schedule looks a bit rough but if they can shock fellow Aggies Texas A&M (not out of the realm of possibility) they will start 2-2 before a rough WAC schedule. They get no favors hosting 4 of the top 5 teams in the WAC and going to Idaho and Hawaii, which will be crucial games. If they win at New Mexico State and split HI/ID, I'll call for maybe 6 wins, but 4 looks realistic. It's too bad because this team has a lot of potential too.
Well, tomorrow we break down C-USA, most likely the Eastern division which has a lot of talented teams looking to climb towards the top.
Boise St.- Uh oh, it looks like the alphabetical order setup dictates that we're shooting our wad early with the Broncos. This team should again dominate with a home game against Nevada and only one real road test, at Fresno St. standing in their way. Sophomore QB Kellen Moore may not improve much upon last year's stats with only good WR back, Austin Pettis back, but he does have a good TE in Kyle Efaw returning as well. Ian Johnson's dramatic drop-off in productivity last year was BSU's gain as Jeremy Avery proved to be a fabulous second banana. DJ Harper is another good back that will produce behind a good OL. The defense should still be good despite losing 6 starters and the strength is in the secondary with CBs Kyle Wilson and Brandyn Thompson and FS Jeron Johnson. Derrell Acrey is an ok LB, but Aaron Tevis was just as productive taking fewer snaps. They will need dramatic improvement at LB to remain a top-flight program. The DL can rush the passer, but they will need to stop the outstanding ground games of Nevada and Fresno State to win this conference again. I will call for 9 or 10 wins yet again for this program, but playing against the likes of Oregon and Tulsa will provide some tough tests.
Fresno St.- If the Bulldogs are smart they will rely on a good OL and the talented backfield trio of Lonyae Miller, Anthony Harding and Ryan Mathews to help the new QB, whoever it may be, ease into his new role. That backfield should make for one of the country's deepest units. Another bright spot for the new QB will be the return of Seyi Ajirotutu and Marlon Moore at WR, with Devon Wylie and Rashad Evans providing plenty of depth. The one thing that could derail the Bulldogs' season is the defense which was struggling during a four-game stretch against Toledo, UCLA, Idaho and Hawaii last season (149 points). Now, the offense was able to make up for that ineptness and win 3 of the 4 games, but they cannot rely on that again this season. They do return 8 starters, but the secondary is pitiful. Their leader in INTs had 2 and is projected to be a backup while the DL has potential at best, with only Chris Carter being able to rush the passer. The LBs also struggled to produce so without a ton of improvement I see a down season for this usually stable program. This may be pessimistic, but I call them for only 5 or 6 wins as the schedule is very tough and the WAC is improving each season, especially the teams at the bottom.
Hawaii- It's best to get the defense out of the way because the glaring weakness. It's not that Hawaii was bad defensively last season, they were actually not bad, but with 2 returning starters, expect a serious step backwards. The good news is they have DE John Fonoti who could be a rising star, but they will need Oregon State transfer Mana Silva and CBs Melvin Hopkins and Jeramy Bryant to find their way quickly as new starters. Hopefully, the Warriors' offense will be a lot more settled now that they have chosen Greg Alexander to be the starter at QB. He doesn't throw a lot of picks and is very accurate, so SB/WR Kealoha Pilares and WRs, Malcolm Lane, Greg Salas and Daniel Lofton could have monster seasons. Lofton could be a huge star as he has the pedigree of being James Lofton's son, a soon-to-be NFL Hall of Famer. I also like Leon Wright-Jackson at TB who could produce good numbers for a RB in this system. The OL needs to replace 2 OGs, so assuming they do that with even decent players, Alexander should have plenty of time to throw and approach 4,000 yards. This is an offense that should be just like Texas Tech's in how they keep producing effective passers. The schedule is rough with Boise State and Fresno State coming to the big island, games they would probably lose anyways, and road games at UNLV, Louisiana Tech, Nevada and San Jose St. How they handle those tests will determine if they get to my max prediction of 6-7 wins.
Idaho- The first thing to note here is that the Vandals really need to break a stretch of losing and gain just 4-5 wins to gain some momentum within the program. All this could be accomplished with winnable road games at New Mexico St. and Northern Illinois early in the season. San Diego St. will travel to the Kibble Dome and haven't been much of a threat in recent seasons so it remains to be seen what will happen there. RB Deonte' Jackson has major potential and should be used as more of a feature back with Princeton McCarty capable of spelling him when he needs a break. Nathan Enderle is a good QB and thankfully he has two good WRs returning because he loses all-world TE Eddie Williams. Idaho does lose 3 starters on the OL but they still have experience from their college careers, just not in 2008. Isaac Butts should be the leader on defense as he is a CB with a lot of potential and decent size at 6". Virdell Larkins should continue to provide range at FS, but JoJo Dickson and Robert Siavii need to produce at LB for this defense to be solid, especially with a lot of good running teams around the conference. There are no outstanding pass rushers coming back, so if they can't get to the passer, that will only hurt the secondary and could cost them a few games. This is a team that has little room for error and I will call for 4-5 wins at best, but if things start going wrong early, that might be optimistic.
Louisiana Tech- The key for the Bulldogs will be finding a viable backup to take the pressure off of all-conference RB Daniel Porter, especially with all 5 starters on the OL returning. If Myke Compton doesn't fit that bill, then it should be time to turn to incoming freshman Tyrone Duplessis who not only ran track in HS but was a highly-rated all-purpose back by Rivals.com. Ross Jenkins returns at QB and will only improve with experience, but RP Stuart and Cruz Williams needs to emerge as another threat at WR to compliment Phillip Livas. I think LT will be fine on defense despite losing two good starters at LB and having no returning CBs. I think Terry Carter will be fine at one corner and with Deon Young and Antonio Baker returning at the safety spots, the secondary might surprisingly be a strength. The DL is very good as they have productivity in numbers rather than just a single star. Losing a starting K always looks bad, but when that K only hit 50% of FGs, then it's a good thing and Livas is a stud returning kicks and punts. Assuming they win at Navy they should go .500 in non-conference and all their conference road games are winnable, but at Fresno and Nevada won't be easy. If they break even on those two, I see possibly 8 wins, although 6-7 looks more likely.
Nevada- This Wolf Pack team has a legitimate shot at breaking Boise St.'s stranglehold on the conference. Even though they have to travel to the blue turf, the defense is good enough to hold up this season. DEs Dontay Moch and Kevin Basped are two of the nations best at getting to the passer and despite an inexperienced LB corps, the secondary will help the defense stay strong. Mo Harvey and Jonathon Amaya are good safeties who make QBs pay for bad decisions and Isaiah Frey and Antoine Thompson are good cover corners. Assuming the defense keeps the plot and holds steady, Nevada will have an outstanding season. On offense, if Luke Lippincott can return to his 2007 form, then he, Vai Taua, and QB Colin Kaepernick may be the best three running threats on one team in the country. Taua and Kaepernick combined for over 2,600 yards, 32 TDs and both averaged over 6 yards per carry. They lose two starters on the OL but a JUCO transfer and new C Kenneth Ackerman, who has started at G before, will ease the transition. The question is, why would Nevada throw unless they have to? They do have a solid TE in Virgil Green and Chris Wellington is a viable deep threat, but the Wolf Pack need to just wear down teams on the DL and they should do fine. A road game at Notre Dame and Missouri at home seem like two key tests, but Missouri has upset potential written all over it as the Tigers have no QB with real experience. If Nevada can stay focused and not look ahead to Nov. 27th when they play at Boise St., then 10-11 wins is well within their grasp. The key will be the defense staying strong as the offense should continue to flourish.
New Mexico St.- The Aggies will have a rough season in 2009 as their head coach is relying on a lot of JUCO transfers to fill in the holes and while that can work well for a limited time, it's not good for the program's long-term goals. The other problem is, Jeff Fleming, one of those transfers expected to fill in at QB, has a daunting task of replacing Chase Holbrook, who was amazingly efficient for a QB on a bad team. The good news is Marquell Colston and Tonny Glynn could be decent RBs if they got more carries and Marcus Anderson is a solid #1 WR. Julius Fleming is the only WR with any real experience, so two JUCO players in William Bullock and Marcus Allen better learn the system right away or this will be a horrific offense. The OL is decent, but Jeff Fleming better not take too much time while he's in the pocket. The defense only has one plus, and that is return of 3 starting LBs, but when you consider this defense allowed 30+ points nine times, that's not necessarily a good thing. Davon House is a solid CB but unless Jonte Green can shutdown the other side, the defense will get eaten alive again. The first two games will be the key point in NMSU season as they play Idaho and Prairie View A&M at home, which could result in wins, but then things go downhill. New Mexico and San Diego St. may be winnable games if the Aggies got them in Las Cruces, but on the road are more than likely losses. I'll call 1-2 wins being optimistic unless they pull a shocking upset or two.
San Jose St.- The Spartans are a very confusing team because they have most of the pieces on defense to succeed, but the offense was just pitiful last year. Carl and Duke Ihenacho were two of the best defenders on any team in the country last year and should remain All-WAC candidates again this year. DT Adonis Davis and DE Mohamed Marah should increase their production this year, and assuming they do that, the new CBs will be helped out immensely. Brandon Driver should provide immediate help as a JUCO transfer and should get a lot of help from Duke Ihenacho who plays the same type of position Brian Uhrlacher did when he was at New Mexico (which means he will be everywhere). The offense, on the other hand, may have some problems getting started despite the return of Kyle Reed as a starter. Reed never developed much of a flow as a starter last year and needs to be more efficient than 6 yards a pass attempt. Having WR Terrance Williams and Kevin Jurovich back should help him achieve that goal, but not as much as having his entire OL back to protect him and RB Patrick Perry finally healthy. Perry should team up with another JUCO, Lamon Muldrow to make for an exciting running game. Muldrow doesn't have top-flight speed, but the ground game should be focused on wearing down opponents and setting up an efficient passing game. The non-conference is tough but a win at Stanford or at home to Utah will set them up nicely. All of their home games should be wins, except Nevada who will be a tough test while going 2-2 on the road in the conference should actually be a positive as none of the road tests are easy. I'll call for a break-even season, maybe 7 wins. This all depens on Reed though and how he progresses with his WRs.
Utah St.- This is truly the wildcard team of the WAC because they will only go as far as QB Diondre Borel takes them. He has a lot of help surrounding him at the WR spot with strength in numbers thanks to Nnamdi Gachem, Stanley Morrison, Omar Sawyer and TE Doug Barbour. The running game should be ok with newcomer Michael Smith, but I would prefer to see them stick with Robert Turbin or Curtis Marsh who weren't bad. The main threat on the ground could still be Borel, but he needs to limit how many hits he takes because if he's gone, so goes the Aggies season. The defense, much like a lot of other teams in the WAC will depend on the secondary and a new CB from the JUCO ranks; this time it's Rajric Coleman. He steps into an ok position where FS James Brindley is very consistent and he can learn from Kejon Murphy, a good cover man. The DL, much like the WR corps, has no stars but a lot of depth and will provide solid play. The LBs should be good thanks to Paul Igboeli and Bobby Wagner. The schedule looks a bit rough but if they can shock fellow Aggies Texas A&M (not out of the realm of possibility) they will start 2-2 before a rough WAC schedule. They get no favors hosting 4 of the top 5 teams in the WAC and going to Idaho and Hawaii, which will be crucial games. If they win at New Mexico State and split HI/ID, I'll call for maybe 6 wins, but 4 looks realistic. It's too bad because this team has a lot of potential too.
Well, tomorrow we break down C-USA, most likely the Eastern division which has a lot of talented teams looking to climb towards the top.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
MAC (Western Division)
Ok, so we're back for the second half of the MAC preview. This is where the teams with the most potential reside, but it remains to be seen if the big boys can put the talent together and make a run at the top 25. I don't think any team in the entire conference should be really dominant and there will be more parody and uncertainty than this conference has seen in a long time. Let's start with last year's darlings...
Ball St.- The Cardinals have the misfortune of losing Nate Davis at QB, but they may be the luckiest team in America because they have 3 non-conference games that are very winnable. North Texas, New Hampshire and at Army isn't exactly a litmus test for determining if a team is great, but we will see how well they fare without Davis at least. The good news is whoever starts will have fabulous TB MiQuale Lewis back to run all over the place and take up most of the workload on offense. The bad news is the OL is very inexperienced, so Lewis could have a major drop in production. Briggs Orsbon and Daniel Ifft may be outstanding receivers, but if the QB doesn't have time to throw or Lewis is ineffective, the offense could go downhill fast. On defense, the Cardinals get a ton of experience back at the DL and some quality LBs (despite losing 2 starters), but have no CBs returning. That is bad news for a division with three outstanding passers. I see only three truly winnable conference games and a tricky non-conference schedule with two unknowns in Army and North Texas. I'll call for 4-5 wins, 6 if they get lucky.
Central Michigan- The Chippewas could be the one team in the MAC that catches all the breaks scheduling-wise. Road games at Arizona, Michigan St. and BC may not be the easiest schedule, but they all lose starting QBs and have upset potential when CMU comes calling. QB Dan LeFevour is a do-it-all QB who can win a lot of games on his own, but hasn't come through in the big games as of late. His only big win recently was at Indiana, but that's because the Hoosiers had fallen apart completely. With no experienced RB, CMU could suffer, but receivers Bryan Anderson and Antonio Brown could top 1,000 yards each this season. CMU is strong defensively with 10 returning starters, but the secondary was not very impressive last season. DEs Frank Zombo and Sam Williams are great at rushing the passer and could cause havoc against the good QBs in the MAC, but that remains to be seen if it will enough. Assuming the defense comes together and the offense stays on course, CMU should get 7 wins easily, but the upside is 9 or 10 with a non-conference upset or two.
Eastern Michigan- Much like North Texas in the Sun Belt, EMU is the great unknown in the MAC because they are a bad team that could rise up and have a surprising season. QB Andy Schmitt improves every season, and with a 63% completion rate, 2-1 TD-to-INT ratio and outstanding receivers in Jacory Stone, Marvin Sanders, Dontayo Gage and DeAnthony White, this offensive could be explosive. Even the TE, Josh LeDuc is a dangerous target. If all that wasn't enough, they get 4 OL back and two solid RBs in Terrence Blevins and Dwayne Priest. I feel Blevins could be a 1,000 yard rusher if he got enough carries, but the offense is much more balanced and that probably won't happen. The defense has a good pass rusher in DE Brad Ohrman, but with 8 returning starters the defense will be more of a team effort than individual stars. CB Arrington Hicks could grow into a good cover corner, but with all the explosive receivers in the MAC West, the secondary will need to step up if they have any chance at finishing .500. Luckily for EMU, road games at Northern Illinois and Toledo are winnable, and so is Ball St. at home, but they need to win 2-of-3 against Kent St., Temple and Western Michigan to finish 7-5, which is their max potential. Army and Northwestern are also winnable non-conference games, but it remains to be seen if this team can get out of their losing tradition. I'll say 4 or 5 wins, but I'm rooting for a .500 season in Schmitt's final season.
Northern Illinois- The Huskies are a confusing team because they have two talented RBs in Me'co Brown and Justin Anderson, but never turned either loose to be a dominate runner. Instead, Chandler Harnish I feel hurt the team more than helped it last year by often times keeping the ball and running it himself. Nathan Palmer is a good returning receiver, but I have little faith in this offense because they were too conservative. The excuse could be that Chandler was just a freshman last year, but really, when I saw him play, he looked only good enough to be obviously weaker foes and got overwhelmed by truly good teams. The good news is they get DE Brandon Bice back to rush the passer, but the bad news is far worse; they lose both CBs and only have 4 starters back overall. Therefore, the defense which helped them get to a bowl game will not be nearly as strong. I just don't like NI's chances against a MAC conference that has plenty of high-powered offenses. Unless NIU can run the ball and limit posessions, it will be a long season. Only Western Illinois and Idaho seem to be gimmes, but Eastern Michigan and at Miami (OH) are winnable, but beyond that, it all depends on how the defense comes together. I'll call for 4 wins because they are usually well-coached and a .500 record would be a huge success.
Toledo- The Rockets have so many returning starters that it seems inevitable that they will top last year's 3 win total, which they will, but the early season could be rough. Purdue is winnable on the road, but not a gimme by any stretch and home against Colorado could also be a close game, but Ohio State is a definite loss. Therefore, if the Rockets start 0-3, things could collapse on their first-year coach Tim Beckman. Anyways, QB Aaron Opelt has superstar receiver Stephen Williams back, and if they can find another weapon or two on the flanks, the offense will be quite dangerous. RBs Morgan Williams and DaJuane Collins may provide the best 1-2 punch of any backfield in the MAC and with the entire OL returning, Toledo will outscore a few teams when they have to. The Rockets have a lot of returning starters on defense, especially at LB and will need a lot of leadership from Archie Donald, Daris Quinn and Barry Church. The secondary may end up ok, but the pass rush will need to produce more than 2 sacks for their individual leader. If the defense can't get to all the talented QBs, I see a 5-7 record. Temple, Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan are not easy games by any stretch so any loss of confidence will hurt.
Western Michigan- It will be a heavy task for Tim Hiller to replicate his 3700 yards and 36 TDs from last year without three of his favorite receivers returning. However, he does have outstanding TB Brandon West returning, along with his capable backup Aaron Winchester, and the reliable Juan Nunez at WR. However, even with all the losses at wideout, they do have a strong OL returning. But, the main problems will be on defense. First, the positives are they get DE Justin Braska who will disrupt any good offense with his speed and agility while LB Austin Pritchard should be an easy All-MAC selection. The problems will be in the secondary where only FS Mario Armstrong has any real experience. The good news with the scheduling is they could cruise to 4-1 or even 5-0 at home, but the road is killer going to Eastern Michigan, NIU and Toledo. All three games could end up in losses, even though WM is probably better than all of them. I have no reason to say with any conviction they will win more than 7 games. It could be a bad season for a program that has been very consistent the last 4 years. And by bad I mean 5 wins, which is not too tragic.
Ok, tune in tomorrow where hopefully I will get through the entire WAC conference, which has two real contenders and a bunch of other squads just praying to achieve bowl eligibility.
Ball St.- The Cardinals have the misfortune of losing Nate Davis at QB, but they may be the luckiest team in America because they have 3 non-conference games that are very winnable. North Texas, New Hampshire and at Army isn't exactly a litmus test for determining if a team is great, but we will see how well they fare without Davis at least. The good news is whoever starts will have fabulous TB MiQuale Lewis back to run all over the place and take up most of the workload on offense. The bad news is the OL is very inexperienced, so Lewis could have a major drop in production. Briggs Orsbon and Daniel Ifft may be outstanding receivers, but if the QB doesn't have time to throw or Lewis is ineffective, the offense could go downhill fast. On defense, the Cardinals get a ton of experience back at the DL and some quality LBs (despite losing 2 starters), but have no CBs returning. That is bad news for a division with three outstanding passers. I see only three truly winnable conference games and a tricky non-conference schedule with two unknowns in Army and North Texas. I'll call for 4-5 wins, 6 if they get lucky.
Central Michigan- The Chippewas could be the one team in the MAC that catches all the breaks scheduling-wise. Road games at Arizona, Michigan St. and BC may not be the easiest schedule, but they all lose starting QBs and have upset potential when CMU comes calling. QB Dan LeFevour is a do-it-all QB who can win a lot of games on his own, but hasn't come through in the big games as of late. His only big win recently was at Indiana, but that's because the Hoosiers had fallen apart completely. With no experienced RB, CMU could suffer, but receivers Bryan Anderson and Antonio Brown could top 1,000 yards each this season. CMU is strong defensively with 10 returning starters, but the secondary was not very impressive last season. DEs Frank Zombo and Sam Williams are great at rushing the passer and could cause havoc against the good QBs in the MAC, but that remains to be seen if it will enough. Assuming the defense comes together and the offense stays on course, CMU should get 7 wins easily, but the upside is 9 or 10 with a non-conference upset or two.
Eastern Michigan- Much like North Texas in the Sun Belt, EMU is the great unknown in the MAC because they are a bad team that could rise up and have a surprising season. QB Andy Schmitt improves every season, and with a 63% completion rate, 2-1 TD-to-INT ratio and outstanding receivers in Jacory Stone, Marvin Sanders, Dontayo Gage and DeAnthony White, this offensive could be explosive. Even the TE, Josh LeDuc is a dangerous target. If all that wasn't enough, they get 4 OL back and two solid RBs in Terrence Blevins and Dwayne Priest. I feel Blevins could be a 1,000 yard rusher if he got enough carries, but the offense is much more balanced and that probably won't happen. The defense has a good pass rusher in DE Brad Ohrman, but with 8 returning starters the defense will be more of a team effort than individual stars. CB Arrington Hicks could grow into a good cover corner, but with all the explosive receivers in the MAC West, the secondary will need to step up if they have any chance at finishing .500. Luckily for EMU, road games at Northern Illinois and Toledo are winnable, and so is Ball St. at home, but they need to win 2-of-3 against Kent St., Temple and Western Michigan to finish 7-5, which is their max potential. Army and Northwestern are also winnable non-conference games, but it remains to be seen if this team can get out of their losing tradition. I'll say 4 or 5 wins, but I'm rooting for a .500 season in Schmitt's final season.
Northern Illinois- The Huskies are a confusing team because they have two talented RBs in Me'co Brown and Justin Anderson, but never turned either loose to be a dominate runner. Instead, Chandler Harnish I feel hurt the team more than helped it last year by often times keeping the ball and running it himself. Nathan Palmer is a good returning receiver, but I have little faith in this offense because they were too conservative. The excuse could be that Chandler was just a freshman last year, but really, when I saw him play, he looked only good enough to be obviously weaker foes and got overwhelmed by truly good teams. The good news is they get DE Brandon Bice back to rush the passer, but the bad news is far worse; they lose both CBs and only have 4 starters back overall. Therefore, the defense which helped them get to a bowl game will not be nearly as strong. I just don't like NI's chances against a MAC conference that has plenty of high-powered offenses. Unless NIU can run the ball and limit posessions, it will be a long season. Only Western Illinois and Idaho seem to be gimmes, but Eastern Michigan and at Miami (OH) are winnable, but beyond that, it all depends on how the defense comes together. I'll call for 4 wins because they are usually well-coached and a .500 record would be a huge success.
Toledo- The Rockets have so many returning starters that it seems inevitable that they will top last year's 3 win total, which they will, but the early season could be rough. Purdue is winnable on the road, but not a gimme by any stretch and home against Colorado could also be a close game, but Ohio State is a definite loss. Therefore, if the Rockets start 0-3, things could collapse on their first-year coach Tim Beckman. Anyways, QB Aaron Opelt has superstar receiver Stephen Williams back, and if they can find another weapon or two on the flanks, the offense will be quite dangerous. RBs Morgan Williams and DaJuane Collins may provide the best 1-2 punch of any backfield in the MAC and with the entire OL returning, Toledo will outscore a few teams when they have to. The Rockets have a lot of returning starters on defense, especially at LB and will need a lot of leadership from Archie Donald, Daris Quinn and Barry Church. The secondary may end up ok, but the pass rush will need to produce more than 2 sacks for their individual leader. If the defense can't get to all the talented QBs, I see a 5-7 record. Temple, Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan are not easy games by any stretch so any loss of confidence will hurt.
Western Michigan- It will be a heavy task for Tim Hiller to replicate his 3700 yards and 36 TDs from last year without three of his favorite receivers returning. However, he does have outstanding TB Brandon West returning, along with his capable backup Aaron Winchester, and the reliable Juan Nunez at WR. However, even with all the losses at wideout, they do have a strong OL returning. But, the main problems will be on defense. First, the positives are they get DE Justin Braska who will disrupt any good offense with his speed and agility while LB Austin Pritchard should be an easy All-MAC selection. The problems will be in the secondary where only FS Mario Armstrong has any real experience. The good news with the scheduling is they could cruise to 4-1 or even 5-0 at home, but the road is killer going to Eastern Michigan, NIU and Toledo. All three games could end up in losses, even though WM is probably better than all of them. I have no reason to say with any conviction they will win more than 7 games. It could be a bad season for a program that has been very consistent the last 4 years. And by bad I mean 5 wins, which is not too tragic.
Ok, tune in tomorrow where hopefully I will get through the entire WAC conference, which has two real contenders and a bunch of other squads just praying to achieve bowl eligibility.
Monday, June 15, 2009
MAC (Eastern Division)
Well, here we are, back for another round. This is finally not the weakest conference in Div I-A thanks to the Sun Belt and the emergence of Ball St., Central Michigan, Buffalo and Northern Illinois over the last decade or so. Of course, we can't forget Toledo either, who played in the first ever OT game in Div I-A, winning the game over Nevada thanks to Wasean Tait. Anyhow, all that is not relevant now, it's about 2009. So, let's get on with the bigger, but possible lesser talented MAC East.
Akron- Well, the main question here is how much the loss of Dennis Kennedy at RB will hurt the Zips. QB Chris Jacquemain is an underrated player in a conference that is known for producing quality NFL QBs. Now, I'm not saying he will be the next Pennington or Roethlisberger, but at 58%, 20 TDs and over 2700 yards, he's keeping a once-fledgling program above water. Akron used to be at the bottom of the MAC but thanks to recent years they have become much more competitive and should remain so with Deryn Bowser, Jeremy Bruce and Andre Jones at WR. The only plus for whoever finds his way starting at TB is the return of 4 quality OL and a good passing attack to take the pressure off of him. The defense will be in trouble because the 2 DEs that do return are good, but not great and starting CB Miguel Graham is the only real standout. Mike Thomas is also a solid player, covering all areas of the field, but this defense wasn't a strength in 2008, so I have little faith for '09. The schedule is balanced with some tough road games and some gimmes at home, but I see 4-5 wins at best in this ever-improving MAC.
Bowling Green- The Falcons seem to be a program that consistently puts up good win totals but never quite gets into the territory Marshall rocketed to in the late 90s where they are consistently feared, year in, year out. Northern Illinois and Central Michigan have occupied the same position as of late, but BG only gets close, and that seems to be the case this season. If anything, BG may regress unless a defense that has two outstanding safeties returning and LB Jerett Sanderson being a leader by example is enough. Angelo Magnone could be a decent DE and productive enough, but the real pressure is on the offense. Tyler Sheehan has all the talent to lead BG back to a bowl game and his receivers are good, but need to produce more TDs. The loss of Corey Partridge, a dependable starter for a few years really hurts, but Freddie Barnes could be a breakout star. The only way for the passing game to gel however is for RBs Chris Bullock and Willie Geter to dominate games. Together, the two combined for about 5 yards a pop, which is very efficient, and if that continues, the Eagles will be explosive. The key will be how BG starts, playing Troy and at Marshall for two winnable games in their first 4. However, I see the toughest tests coming at home and no guaranteed road victories. I still think they could get to .500, maybe even 7-5, but 4 or 5 wins at best seems realistic.
Buffalo- You have to give Turner Gill credit. He took a program that didn't seem ready for Div I-A and turned them into winners the last two seasons. Now the question is whether or not they can maintain that success without QB Drew Willy. Sophomore Zach Maynard may not be ready for primetime at QB, but with TB James Starks and the explosive Naaman Roosevelt at WR, he has a great supporting cast that can only help his learning curve. The OL only has 2 returnees, so the running game will be a concern without a proven passer under center. One positive is the defense returns 8 starters, which could help them win games early while the offense finds its rhythm. Then again, the defense was hardly impressive last season, even allowing Temple, who seemed to be in a coma offensively most of the season, to put up good yards and points. Their sack total was borderline reprehensible, something Tedy Bruschi or Rob Waldrop would have had at Arizona in the mid-90s by mid-season. Anyways, that's enough badgering of the defense, because I can't say anything nice about them except hopefully another season will help. Anyways, the schedule is not bad, but a loss at UTEP could create a bad feeling and then Pitt at home and UCF on the road are not cupcakes. I think everything hinges on how they start the season and I don't see things going well. Plus, playing Central and Western Michigan from the MAC West does not help them. I see 4-5 wins, but the main wildcard is Maynard. If he grasps the offense quickly, the East is not very top-heavy, so 7-8 is realistic as well. Who knows really.
Kent St.- It seems crazy to think that the Golden Flashes could get better after losing do-it-all QB Julius Edelman, but that may just be the case. Giorgio Morgan is a reliable QB who should do well, as long as he doesn't forget how to hand the ball to All-America caliber RB Eugene Jarvis. I think Jarvis tops 1500 yards easy, maybe 2000 if he becomes the focus of the offense. The receivers will get plenty of help with Iowa transfer Anthony Bowman while the rest of the group may not be spectacular, they are reliable, which is all Coach Martin could ask for in this run-dominant offense. They also lose only one OL which means they should still be good offensively. The DL is a major strength as well with Kevin Hogan, Sam Frist and Aaron Hull returning. The secondary is dependable, mostly thanks to S Brian Lainhart, and will help them win more than a few games. I can see a 4-2 start for the Flashes if they upset either Iowa St. or Boston College, the latter of which has become a distinct possibility since QB Dominique Davis' departure. I could see 7 or 8 wins and probably a .500 record in their future. They may not make my surprise teams list, but good things could come to Kent this fall.
Miami (OH)- Yet again, the major story will be the QB play. However, this time a key figure returns under center in Daniel Raudabaugh, who has all the talent and experience, but needs to cut down on interceptions big-time. Chris Givens and Dustin Woods are highly-capable receivers and they return 5 or 6 weapons on the flanks, and with Thomas Merriweather at TB, the offense could be one of the best in the MAC if they come together early in the season. The defense is the confusing issue for the Redhawks as they didn't allow very many yards through the air, but then again, they played a lot of teams who had below-average passing attacks. Without a lot of experience on D, the real issue all season will be if they can hold their opponents enough and not get worn down late in games. I would bet on that being a negative and despite a potentially high-powered offense, I call for 3 or 4 wins at best. This is also due to a very tough non-conference schedule.
Ohio- Ok, so I was reading Phil Steele's magazine and he had Theo Scott as the starter which means either Frank Solich and his OC are high, or they are complete idiots (or Steele is making a dumb prediction). There is no way in hell the Bobcats should be deviating from the Boo Jackson plan at QB because he has been outstanding because he creates a lot of plays with his feet, can pass well enough and has turned around a program that has been used to losing (except for 2006) much like Juice Williams at Illinois. Donte Harden are two very good RBs and the passing game has enough weapons at wideout to make up for the loss of dangerous TE Andrew Mooney. Mooney became one of those players last season whose reputation for being a receiving threat opened up holes in the defense for other receivers, so he will be missed. On defense, Lee Renfro and Noah Keller are good LBs and CB Thad Turner and S Steven Jackson can make this a strong unit. The DL may have plenty of returning contributors, but they will need to make more plays if they hope to contend for the MAC East title. I see Temple, Kent or Ohio coming out of the division with the crown so, Ohio has the advantage getting both of them at home. The good news for Ohio is they avoid all the directional Michigan teams in the MAC and even games at Ball St. and Buffalo aren't too bad since they will both be losing starting QBs. This all boils down to the Scott/Jackson situation; if Scott starts I call for 6-6 or 7-5 and a wide open MAC East race, but if Jackson gets the nod, they go 8-4, possibly climbing up to 9 wins and cruise to the MAC title game.
Temple- The good news for the Owls is despite losing a very good QB, Vaughn Charlton is an experienced replacement and Jason Harper and Dy'Onne Crudup are steady, but not outstanding receivers. I believe Delano Green could be another contributor at WR but the most important part of the offense is getting the ground game up and running. Syracuse transfer, and former LB Lamar McPherson apparently has the inside track at RB, but Kee-ayre Griffin and Joe Jones are not bad. The problem is they need to focus on running more and that may happen with 3 of 5 OL returning. The defense is the real strength however, as anyone would know who watched an Owls game last year. In six games last year the Owls allowed 12 points or less. The problem is they lost two of those games, but nonetheless, Jamal Schulters, Dominique Harris and Jaiquawn Jarrett make up 75% of the best secondary in the MAC. Heck, the fourth starter could be a midget and the secondary would be damn good. DE Junior Galette is a fierce pass-rusher and the front seven is very experienced and can tackle very well, which is rare with smaller programs. I think Temple is the most capable, and most logical contender for Ohio, but their offense has to improve immensely to be a real contender. They have three winnable non-conference games, but playing at Toledo, Akron and Ohio will be a tough test. If they pass, I see as many as 8 wins and a MAC East title.
Ok, when I return we shall dissect the MAC West together. Come back again soon.
Akron- Well, the main question here is how much the loss of Dennis Kennedy at RB will hurt the Zips. QB Chris Jacquemain is an underrated player in a conference that is known for producing quality NFL QBs. Now, I'm not saying he will be the next Pennington or Roethlisberger, but at 58%, 20 TDs and over 2700 yards, he's keeping a once-fledgling program above water. Akron used to be at the bottom of the MAC but thanks to recent years they have become much more competitive and should remain so with Deryn Bowser, Jeremy Bruce and Andre Jones at WR. The only plus for whoever finds his way starting at TB is the return of 4 quality OL and a good passing attack to take the pressure off of him. The defense will be in trouble because the 2 DEs that do return are good, but not great and starting CB Miguel Graham is the only real standout. Mike Thomas is also a solid player, covering all areas of the field, but this defense wasn't a strength in 2008, so I have little faith for '09. The schedule is balanced with some tough road games and some gimmes at home, but I see 4-5 wins at best in this ever-improving MAC.
Bowling Green- The Falcons seem to be a program that consistently puts up good win totals but never quite gets into the territory Marshall rocketed to in the late 90s where they are consistently feared, year in, year out. Northern Illinois and Central Michigan have occupied the same position as of late, but BG only gets close, and that seems to be the case this season. If anything, BG may regress unless a defense that has two outstanding safeties returning and LB Jerett Sanderson being a leader by example is enough. Angelo Magnone could be a decent DE and productive enough, but the real pressure is on the offense. Tyler Sheehan has all the talent to lead BG back to a bowl game and his receivers are good, but need to produce more TDs. The loss of Corey Partridge, a dependable starter for a few years really hurts, but Freddie Barnes could be a breakout star. The only way for the passing game to gel however is for RBs Chris Bullock and Willie Geter to dominate games. Together, the two combined for about 5 yards a pop, which is very efficient, and if that continues, the Eagles will be explosive. The key will be how BG starts, playing Troy and at Marshall for two winnable games in their first 4. However, I see the toughest tests coming at home and no guaranteed road victories. I still think they could get to .500, maybe even 7-5, but 4 or 5 wins at best seems realistic.
Buffalo- You have to give Turner Gill credit. He took a program that didn't seem ready for Div I-A and turned them into winners the last two seasons. Now the question is whether or not they can maintain that success without QB Drew Willy. Sophomore Zach Maynard may not be ready for primetime at QB, but with TB James Starks and the explosive Naaman Roosevelt at WR, he has a great supporting cast that can only help his learning curve. The OL only has 2 returnees, so the running game will be a concern without a proven passer under center. One positive is the defense returns 8 starters, which could help them win games early while the offense finds its rhythm. Then again, the defense was hardly impressive last season, even allowing Temple, who seemed to be in a coma offensively most of the season, to put up good yards and points. Their sack total was borderline reprehensible, something Tedy Bruschi or Rob Waldrop would have had at Arizona in the mid-90s by mid-season. Anyways, that's enough badgering of the defense, because I can't say anything nice about them except hopefully another season will help. Anyways, the schedule is not bad, but a loss at UTEP could create a bad feeling and then Pitt at home and UCF on the road are not cupcakes. I think everything hinges on how they start the season and I don't see things going well. Plus, playing Central and Western Michigan from the MAC West does not help them. I see 4-5 wins, but the main wildcard is Maynard. If he grasps the offense quickly, the East is not very top-heavy, so 7-8 is realistic as well. Who knows really.
Kent St.- It seems crazy to think that the Golden Flashes could get better after losing do-it-all QB Julius Edelman, but that may just be the case. Giorgio Morgan is a reliable QB who should do well, as long as he doesn't forget how to hand the ball to All-America caliber RB Eugene Jarvis. I think Jarvis tops 1500 yards easy, maybe 2000 if he becomes the focus of the offense. The receivers will get plenty of help with Iowa transfer Anthony Bowman while the rest of the group may not be spectacular, they are reliable, which is all Coach Martin could ask for in this run-dominant offense. They also lose only one OL which means they should still be good offensively. The DL is a major strength as well with Kevin Hogan, Sam Frist and Aaron Hull returning. The secondary is dependable, mostly thanks to S Brian Lainhart, and will help them win more than a few games. I can see a 4-2 start for the Flashes if they upset either Iowa St. or Boston College, the latter of which has become a distinct possibility since QB Dominique Davis' departure. I could see 7 or 8 wins and probably a .500 record in their future. They may not make my surprise teams list, but good things could come to Kent this fall.
Miami (OH)- Yet again, the major story will be the QB play. However, this time a key figure returns under center in Daniel Raudabaugh, who has all the talent and experience, but needs to cut down on interceptions big-time. Chris Givens and Dustin Woods are highly-capable receivers and they return 5 or 6 weapons on the flanks, and with Thomas Merriweather at TB, the offense could be one of the best in the MAC if they come together early in the season. The defense is the confusing issue for the Redhawks as they didn't allow very many yards through the air, but then again, they played a lot of teams who had below-average passing attacks. Without a lot of experience on D, the real issue all season will be if they can hold their opponents enough and not get worn down late in games. I would bet on that being a negative and despite a potentially high-powered offense, I call for 3 or 4 wins at best. This is also due to a very tough non-conference schedule.
Ohio- Ok, so I was reading Phil Steele's magazine and he had Theo Scott as the starter which means either Frank Solich and his OC are high, or they are complete idiots (or Steele is making a dumb prediction). There is no way in hell the Bobcats should be deviating from the Boo Jackson plan at QB because he has been outstanding because he creates a lot of plays with his feet, can pass well enough and has turned around a program that has been used to losing (except for 2006) much like Juice Williams at Illinois. Donte Harden are two very good RBs and the passing game has enough weapons at wideout to make up for the loss of dangerous TE Andrew Mooney. Mooney became one of those players last season whose reputation for being a receiving threat opened up holes in the defense for other receivers, so he will be missed. On defense, Lee Renfro and Noah Keller are good LBs and CB Thad Turner and S Steven Jackson can make this a strong unit. The DL may have plenty of returning contributors, but they will need to make more plays if they hope to contend for the MAC East title. I see Temple, Kent or Ohio coming out of the division with the crown so, Ohio has the advantage getting both of them at home. The good news for Ohio is they avoid all the directional Michigan teams in the MAC and even games at Ball St. and Buffalo aren't too bad since they will both be losing starting QBs. This all boils down to the Scott/Jackson situation; if Scott starts I call for 6-6 or 7-5 and a wide open MAC East race, but if Jackson gets the nod, they go 8-4, possibly climbing up to 9 wins and cruise to the MAC title game.
Temple- The good news for the Owls is despite losing a very good QB, Vaughn Charlton is an experienced replacement and Jason Harper and Dy'Onne Crudup are steady, but not outstanding receivers. I believe Delano Green could be another contributor at WR but the most important part of the offense is getting the ground game up and running. Syracuse transfer, and former LB Lamar McPherson apparently has the inside track at RB, but Kee-ayre Griffin and Joe Jones are not bad. The problem is they need to focus on running more and that may happen with 3 of 5 OL returning. The defense is the real strength however, as anyone would know who watched an Owls game last year. In six games last year the Owls allowed 12 points or less. The problem is they lost two of those games, but nonetheless, Jamal Schulters, Dominique Harris and Jaiquawn Jarrett make up 75% of the best secondary in the MAC. Heck, the fourth starter could be a midget and the secondary would be damn good. DE Junior Galette is a fierce pass-rusher and the front seven is very experienced and can tackle very well, which is rare with smaller programs. I think Temple is the most capable, and most logical contender for Ohio, but their offense has to improve immensely to be a real contender. They have three winnable non-conference games, but playing at Toledo, Akron and Ohio will be a tough test. If they pass, I see as many as 8 wins and a MAC East title.
Ok, when I return we shall dissect the MAC West together. Come back again soon.
Sunday, June 14, 2009
Sun Belt Preview
Oh yeah, it's time to get back to the college football world. Welcome to the mecca of college football discussion. You will get a breakdown of every single conference, every single team and just about everything you could want in Div I-A (I refuse to call it FBS because there are too many BS's in college football nowadays). You'll laugh, you'll cry, you'll hurl. Wait, wasn't that on the movie poster for Wayne's World? Anyways, the best part about all of this is you get everything for free. So, let's skip the foreplay and get into the teams.
Arkansas St.- Well, this team could be good once again, a possible darkhorse for the Sun Belt crown. With Reggie Arnold back again at TB and Corey Leonard at QB they could be a scare for Nebraska and Iowa on the road, although it will be hard to duplicate any upset road victories like the one they pulled at Texas A&M last year. With a good secondary and a dominant DE in Alex Carrington (10.5 sacks) they will have a good shot at taking down Florida Atlantic and Troy, the two most dominant teams in the Sun Belt the last few years. They will need to step things up on special teams after being subpar in KR and PR and losing their punter. The K they do have is consistent and one of the best, but they will have to get by Troy in late September to have a good shot at the title. The Red Wolves' best bet is to lean on Arnold and keep the offensive balanced with most of their receivers returning. I could see 7-5 or 8-4 in their future.
Florida Atlantic- Just the fact that QB Rusty Smith and WR Cortez Gent are still around makes me feel old. Those two are a great combo and with TEs Jason Harmon and Jamari Grant back to help out the passing game, Smith could easily surpass 3,500 yards. Heck, he may have to with a running game that is very inexperienced. The fact that this program has back-to-back bowl wins would make one think they are on the rise. However, all of that momentum may be halted by a defense that loses a ton of starters. The secondary may be able to recover and do well, but the front 7 will take awhile to gel. They couldn't rush the passer last year and likely won't do that this season unless a star emerges. The schedule also does not favor them going to Louisiana and Troy while finishing the season with a good up-and-coming FIU squad. I predict 6-6 or 7-5, even with Wyoming and UAB on the schedule, both winnable games.
Florida International- Well, the bad news is that the Panthers lost their top 2 rushers from last season. The good news; their running game sucked anyways, so they can only improve. Besides that, with a stud like TY Hilton at wideout, they won't need to run too much. Hilton will be a lesser-known version of Ted Ginn Jr. as he can return kicks and punts and average a good 20+ yard plus per reception (I spared USC fans some pain by not comparing him to R. Jay Soward). They have 10 offensive starters back, including the entire OL, which should help the run game. Also, an experienced passer in Paul McCall means the offense should improve. The defense may not be as strong with a DL that needs immediate help, but a strong secondary may bend but not break during the conference schedule. The non-conference is brutal playing at Alabama, Rutgers and Florida. Anthony Gaitor is a potential All-American at CB but the team will go only as far as McCall's arm and Hilton's speed takes them. I say 5-7, with an upside of 7-5 max.
Louisiana Ragin' Cajun- This program should thank the lord they have a good OL returning and a defense that should keep them competitive. Losing QB Michael Desormeaux, RB Tyrell Fenroy and WR Jason Cherry will be tough to replace. That may be the biggest collection of losses on offense for any one team because it's much tougher for a club in the Sun Belt to just replace three standouts. Brad McGuire looked decent when playing but he has a tough job with no real experienced RBs returning. The question is whether or not the strength of the receiving corps, relative to the rest of the offense, dictates a more down-the-field approach rather than ball-control and option. The defense is in good hands with a great set of LBs returning, a strong DL and only losing a SS in the secondary. The defense was a bit shaky at times, making them underachieve, but returning so many starters should help them make tremendous strides. Catching Kansas State in week 2 without Josh Freeman at QB for the Wildcats is a big break. The real problem will be going to FIU, Arkansas St. and Middle Tennessee for three consecutive weeks late in the season. Although the defense could carry them to a .500 season, the offense is on life support. I'll call for 3-9 or 4-8.
Middle Tennessee- Maybe it was dropping the state from the end of their name, but whatever it is, this program has not been the same since being a perennial power in Div I-AA before they stepped up divisions. While Dwight Dasher did not look good at QB in mop-up duty last year, he has looked impressive before in his college career and the rest of the offense returns intact. Phillip Tanner is an underrated RB and he has 5 good receivers coming back. While only one receiver had a good yards per catch average, the offense should be explosive as long as Dasher matures and regains his confidence. Their defense loses 3 good LBs, including one standout, which is never a good sign, but as seems to be the norm in this conference, they return a strong secondary. They have some good DL who can get to the QB and what they lack in superstars, they make up for in productivity. Despite a brutal non-conference schedule where they probably will come away with zero wins, they only need get by Troy and FAU on the road to have a good shot at the conference title. However, I see a bad start with their schedule that they won't be able to recover from until it's too late. I'll go 6-6 with an upside of 7-5 if they get by both FAU and Troy.
North Texas- This is the great unknown in the Sun Belt conference. I see far better days ahead for the Mean Green, especially with the coach's son, Riley Dodge, set to take over at QB. Dodge can run and perhaps this offense should be a lot more run-oriented. While they shouldn't be a pure option club, a nice mix, such as the one Rich Rodriguez had set up at Tulane with Shaun King would work perfectly. Cam Montgomery is maybe the best RB in the conference and Micah Mosley and Lance Dunbar are very good backups. The receivers are not very experienced but will put up good numbers in this offense. Losing Casey Fitzgerald is something they cannot recover from with one player, so the entire starting OL that returns will have to give Dodge time to hit his targets and develop a good rhythm. Starting at Ball St. and home against Ohio won't be too difficult with a game against Army late in the season winnable. The team does return 9 starters on defense, but as bad as the defense was last year, that's not a good thing. They allowed under 40 points only twice. TWICE!! The LBs are strong but the secondary is shaky at best. I don't see a huge upgrade in wins right away, but they will be much more competitive, so I'll go 4-8 with an upside of 6-6 if they go 2-2 in non-conference. However, that is being very optimistic to say the least.
Troy- This will be another strong squad led by Larry Blakeney and as long as the defense can patch up a few holes in the secondary, they will cruise to another conference title. The LBs are outstanding and the DL can rush the passer like no one else in the SBC. The offense has a strong leader in Levi Brown at QB and various threats at WR including Jerrel Jernigan, RB DuJuan Harris and OK transfer Josh Jarboe is expected to be a big contributor. The OL is good, but they don't have either of their tackles returning so if the protection falters and Brown has no time to throw, the Trojans may struggle. However, this is not very likely, and playing at Bowling Green and home against UAB provides a manageable non-conference schedule. They have to play at Arkansas St. early in the season and a loss could derail their title chances. Despite Troy's experience and pedigree, I see the ASU-Troy tilt as being the title decider and the Red Wolves coming out on top. I think Troy could still finish 7-5, maybe even 9-3, but that's with all the breaks going their way.
ULM- The Warhawks may lose a very good leader in QB Kinsmon Lancaster, but Trey Revell is a good dual-threat option who should fill in nicely. Frank Goodin is a fantastic runner and receiver out of the backfield and Darrell McNeal could be a stud at WR if they let him loose. Anthony McCall is another good receiver, but losing TE Zeek Zacharie will hurt their productivity somewhat. The OL returns 4 of 5 so they should protect Revell enough to find his plethora of weapons while still opening up holes for Goodin. The schedule is brutal going on the road to Texas, Arizona St. and Kentucky, plus they play SBC powers Troy and FAU away from home. The defense is not as solid as the offense, but DE Aaron Morgan can rush the passer and LB Cardia Jackson is a solid all-around player. The secondary is solid in every way possible, no real weaknesses, which will help immensely in this conference. I think 4-8 is realistic with a tough overall schedule, but the upside is 6-6 and that's about all.
Western Kentucky- Oh, where have you gone Willie Taggart. The former standout QB may have only thrown for 1,000 yards once, but he ran for nearly 4,000 during an illustrious career. This paved the way for a good recruiting class that produced a national title in 2002. This team will struggle immensely with no one of any experience at QB. They could win against Central Arkansas, but that's about it. They do get a star back at TB in Tyrell Hayden and two other contributors in Bobby Rainey and Marell Booker. Possibly the lone bright side for whoever starts at QB is they get an experienced group of receivers coming back. The depressing part is the defense where they return Blake Boyd and Darvis McBride, two very good LBs coming back, but little else. This will be a brutal season for Hilltoppers fans who may only experience one win, and not even from a Div I-A opponent. Bad times indeed.
Well, there's your first conference preview, check in down the road for the MAC.
Arkansas St.- Well, this team could be good once again, a possible darkhorse for the Sun Belt crown. With Reggie Arnold back again at TB and Corey Leonard at QB they could be a scare for Nebraska and Iowa on the road, although it will be hard to duplicate any upset road victories like the one they pulled at Texas A&M last year. With a good secondary and a dominant DE in Alex Carrington (10.5 sacks) they will have a good shot at taking down Florida Atlantic and Troy, the two most dominant teams in the Sun Belt the last few years. They will need to step things up on special teams after being subpar in KR and PR and losing their punter. The K they do have is consistent and one of the best, but they will have to get by Troy in late September to have a good shot at the title. The Red Wolves' best bet is to lean on Arnold and keep the offensive balanced with most of their receivers returning. I could see 7-5 or 8-4 in their future.
Florida Atlantic- Just the fact that QB Rusty Smith and WR Cortez Gent are still around makes me feel old. Those two are a great combo and with TEs Jason Harmon and Jamari Grant back to help out the passing game, Smith could easily surpass 3,500 yards. Heck, he may have to with a running game that is very inexperienced. The fact that this program has back-to-back bowl wins would make one think they are on the rise. However, all of that momentum may be halted by a defense that loses a ton of starters. The secondary may be able to recover and do well, but the front 7 will take awhile to gel. They couldn't rush the passer last year and likely won't do that this season unless a star emerges. The schedule also does not favor them going to Louisiana and Troy while finishing the season with a good up-and-coming FIU squad. I predict 6-6 or 7-5, even with Wyoming and UAB on the schedule, both winnable games.
Florida International- Well, the bad news is that the Panthers lost their top 2 rushers from last season. The good news; their running game sucked anyways, so they can only improve. Besides that, with a stud like TY Hilton at wideout, they won't need to run too much. Hilton will be a lesser-known version of Ted Ginn Jr. as he can return kicks and punts and average a good 20+ yard plus per reception (I spared USC fans some pain by not comparing him to R. Jay Soward). They have 10 offensive starters back, including the entire OL, which should help the run game. Also, an experienced passer in Paul McCall means the offense should improve. The defense may not be as strong with a DL that needs immediate help, but a strong secondary may bend but not break during the conference schedule. The non-conference is brutal playing at Alabama, Rutgers and Florida. Anthony Gaitor is a potential All-American at CB but the team will go only as far as McCall's arm and Hilton's speed takes them. I say 5-7, with an upside of 7-5 max.
Louisiana Ragin' Cajun- This program should thank the lord they have a good OL returning and a defense that should keep them competitive. Losing QB Michael Desormeaux, RB Tyrell Fenroy and WR Jason Cherry will be tough to replace. That may be the biggest collection of losses on offense for any one team because it's much tougher for a club in the Sun Belt to just replace three standouts. Brad McGuire looked decent when playing but he has a tough job with no real experienced RBs returning. The question is whether or not the strength of the receiving corps, relative to the rest of the offense, dictates a more down-the-field approach rather than ball-control and option. The defense is in good hands with a great set of LBs returning, a strong DL and only losing a SS in the secondary. The defense was a bit shaky at times, making them underachieve, but returning so many starters should help them make tremendous strides. Catching Kansas State in week 2 without Josh Freeman at QB for the Wildcats is a big break. The real problem will be going to FIU, Arkansas St. and Middle Tennessee for three consecutive weeks late in the season. Although the defense could carry them to a .500 season, the offense is on life support. I'll call for 3-9 or 4-8.
Middle Tennessee- Maybe it was dropping the state from the end of their name, but whatever it is, this program has not been the same since being a perennial power in Div I-AA before they stepped up divisions. While Dwight Dasher did not look good at QB in mop-up duty last year, he has looked impressive before in his college career and the rest of the offense returns intact. Phillip Tanner is an underrated RB and he has 5 good receivers coming back. While only one receiver had a good yards per catch average, the offense should be explosive as long as Dasher matures and regains his confidence. Their defense loses 3 good LBs, including one standout, which is never a good sign, but as seems to be the norm in this conference, they return a strong secondary. They have some good DL who can get to the QB and what they lack in superstars, they make up for in productivity. Despite a brutal non-conference schedule where they probably will come away with zero wins, they only need get by Troy and FAU on the road to have a good shot at the conference title. However, I see a bad start with their schedule that they won't be able to recover from until it's too late. I'll go 6-6 with an upside of 7-5 if they get by both FAU and Troy.
North Texas- This is the great unknown in the Sun Belt conference. I see far better days ahead for the Mean Green, especially with the coach's son, Riley Dodge, set to take over at QB. Dodge can run and perhaps this offense should be a lot more run-oriented. While they shouldn't be a pure option club, a nice mix, such as the one Rich Rodriguez had set up at Tulane with Shaun King would work perfectly. Cam Montgomery is maybe the best RB in the conference and Micah Mosley and Lance Dunbar are very good backups. The receivers are not very experienced but will put up good numbers in this offense. Losing Casey Fitzgerald is something they cannot recover from with one player, so the entire starting OL that returns will have to give Dodge time to hit his targets and develop a good rhythm. Starting at Ball St. and home against Ohio won't be too difficult with a game against Army late in the season winnable. The team does return 9 starters on defense, but as bad as the defense was last year, that's not a good thing. They allowed under 40 points only twice. TWICE!! The LBs are strong but the secondary is shaky at best. I don't see a huge upgrade in wins right away, but they will be much more competitive, so I'll go 4-8 with an upside of 6-6 if they go 2-2 in non-conference. However, that is being very optimistic to say the least.
Troy- This will be another strong squad led by Larry Blakeney and as long as the defense can patch up a few holes in the secondary, they will cruise to another conference title. The LBs are outstanding and the DL can rush the passer like no one else in the SBC. The offense has a strong leader in Levi Brown at QB and various threats at WR including Jerrel Jernigan, RB DuJuan Harris and OK transfer Josh Jarboe is expected to be a big contributor. The OL is good, but they don't have either of their tackles returning so if the protection falters and Brown has no time to throw, the Trojans may struggle. However, this is not very likely, and playing at Bowling Green and home against UAB provides a manageable non-conference schedule. They have to play at Arkansas St. early in the season and a loss could derail their title chances. Despite Troy's experience and pedigree, I see the ASU-Troy tilt as being the title decider and the Red Wolves coming out on top. I think Troy could still finish 7-5, maybe even 9-3, but that's with all the breaks going their way.
ULM- The Warhawks may lose a very good leader in QB Kinsmon Lancaster, but Trey Revell is a good dual-threat option who should fill in nicely. Frank Goodin is a fantastic runner and receiver out of the backfield and Darrell McNeal could be a stud at WR if they let him loose. Anthony McCall is another good receiver, but losing TE Zeek Zacharie will hurt their productivity somewhat. The OL returns 4 of 5 so they should protect Revell enough to find his plethora of weapons while still opening up holes for Goodin. The schedule is brutal going on the road to Texas, Arizona St. and Kentucky, plus they play SBC powers Troy and FAU away from home. The defense is not as solid as the offense, but DE Aaron Morgan can rush the passer and LB Cardia Jackson is a solid all-around player. The secondary is solid in every way possible, no real weaknesses, which will help immensely in this conference. I think 4-8 is realistic with a tough overall schedule, but the upside is 6-6 and that's about all.
Western Kentucky- Oh, where have you gone Willie Taggart. The former standout QB may have only thrown for 1,000 yards once, but he ran for nearly 4,000 during an illustrious career. This paved the way for a good recruiting class that produced a national title in 2002. This team will struggle immensely with no one of any experience at QB. They could win against Central Arkansas, but that's about it. They do get a star back at TB in Tyrell Hayden and two other contributors in Bobby Rainey and Marell Booker. Possibly the lone bright side for whoever starts at QB is they get an experienced group of receivers coming back. The depressing part is the defense where they return Blake Boyd and Darvis McBride, two very good LBs coming back, but little else. This will be a brutal season for Hilltoppers fans who may only experience one win, and not even from a Div I-A opponent. Bad times indeed.
Well, there's your first conference preview, check in down the road for the MAC.
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Who Has the Best College Football Program of All-Time?
First off, each conference with a legitimate representative should be used. This eliminates the ACC sadly because no matter how good Florida State is, their program has only been good a short amount of time compared to the others on this list. We are using the polls since 1936 to decide which national championships count. The UP (United Press) from 1950-57 counts, so does the AP (Associated Press) since 1936, INS (International News Service) from 1952-57, the UPI (United Press International) from 1958-90, the FW (Football Writers Association of America) from 1954-now, the NFF (National Football Foundation and Hall of Fame since 1991, and finally, the USA Today/CNN since 1991. Now, the criteria used will be the following…
National Championships and NC opportunities (broken down into 3 categories)
#1 vs. #2 Matchups in major bowl games for the NC. Outright national championships before 1968, when it was finally decided that AP polls for who should be NC would be taken after the bowl games. Every year before (except 1965) the NC was decided before the bowl games, which means you could be NC but lose your bowl game, and that makes no sense. If you split the national title, that counts, almost as much as an outright because at least the pollsters realized that the best team is subjective, and maybe two teams are the best but never played (USC and LSU in 2003). I cannot take into account EVERY single season where a #4 team could have jumped to #1 with all the losses had they won their bowl game, such as in 1983 when all that mess happened. Three of the top 5 teams lose, but a #5 Miami-FL leapfrogs a #3 Auburn. Huh? If Texas wins, ranked #2, they win the national title, but ifs are just that, ifs, and didn’t happen.
Ok, there will be no points system. I’m not going to arbitrarily decide that some national title should count for a 100 points and this for that many points or whatever, that’s BS. I could manipulate the points systems so that whoever wins by 7 points because they have the most Academic All-Americans or some BS. No, this will be stat based, but at the same time, the stats need to be examined in context, not just, hey they won a title, check. Also, no awards for individuals will be counted and this includes All-Americans, Academic All-Americans, Heismans and any other individual trophies, it’s all about teams, because this is about the greatest program in history, which to me means the most consistently great program that rarely has bad eras where they could not compete. Every program is allowed a bad year or two to rebuild based on rebuilding if they lost a great senior class or early draft picks, which happens a lot more now. But still, consistency is the key, as is how strong your conference is. If we go from 1935 on, the last year before the AP stepped in and started declaring national champions, look at the conference breakdowns of what programs have won national championships.
Big 10: Iowa (1958), Michigan (2), Minnesota (5), Michigan St. (3), Ohio State (7), and Penn State has 2, but none as a member of the Big 10.
Big 8: Oklahoma (7), Nebraska (5), and Colorado (1990).
SWC: SMU (1935), TCU (1938), Texas A&M (1939), Arkansas (1964) and Texas (4).
Pac-10: USC (7), UCLA (1954), Washington (1991)
SEC: Alabama (7), Tennessee (2), Florida (3), LSU (3), Auburn (1957), Ole Miss (1960) and Georgia (1980). Arkansas has not won a title since joining the SEC.
By this statistical evidence, the SEC and Big 10 would be the most well-rounded conferences, but the SEC has their national champions spread out over decades (every one since the 50s). I will also put how many wins each team that comes into consideration has, but this will be going since 1953 because that’s the most comprehensive and accurate info I could find. Bowl wins mean very little since you could have won the California Bowl but who cares, the major bowls are what matters, where you face the best competition. The Big 5 matter most (Cotton, Rose, Sugar, Orange and Fiesta), but the Fiesta only counts since the mid-80s, when Penn St.-Miami FL legitimized it as an important bowl game that could decide the national title.
Lastly, a team’s worst ten-year period since 1953 will be counted. It’s important as I mentioned earlier that a team has consistency. Losing records, very few bowl wins, a lack of high conference finishes, few AP poll appearances (at the end of the season) will be factored. I’ve broken down the criteria and who qualifies, here are the candidates: Alabama, Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Southern Cal, and Texas. I give Michigan a break even though the criteria should be at least 4 national titles, which means Minnesota would make it over them. However, looking at winning from 1936-2008, Michigan is far superior.
Alabama: 7 national titles. Let’s look at them. Five of them have been split titles, in 1961, 1964, 1965, 1973 and 1978. Now, in the two taken before the bowl games, they won the Sugar Bowl over Arkansas in 1961, then lost in 1964 to Texas in the Orange Bowl. So, how many are legit? Well two are outright, no disputing those. In 1973 they won despite losing their bowl game. So, we can count 5 as truly legitimate. Their record since 1953: 460-182-18. Alabama is 2-1 in bowl games where they were in a #1 vs. #2 bowl matchup. They won in 1978 and 1992, but lost to Nebraska in 1971. Alabama has won 4 of the 5 major bowl games, losing their only Fiesta Bowl appearance in 1990 to a very good Louisville team, 34-7. Worst 10-year period: 1997-2006. They have one BCS appearance, losing to Michigan by one. They have six bowl appearances overall, 2 AP poll appearances, and 5 winning records. By all means that’s a good resume, especially considering how good the SEC has been forever, having won a national title in every decade since the 50s.
Michigan: 2 national titles. Now, the Wolverines have an impressive history, there’s no questioning that. However, they’ve never been in a #1 vs. #2 bowl matchup, so no groundbreaking victories to capture a NC and their 1948 title featured no bowl game. Also, their only title in the last 50 years is a split title. So, only one may really be legitimate and the other was 60 years ago. Their record since 1953: 447-171-12. They have won 3 of the 5 major bowls, but the 1985 Fiesta Bowl win was over a good, but not great 9-2 Nebraska team. From 1960 to 1990 they lost 7 Rose Bowls and won only 3, which is of course the premier bowl they could have gone to being in the Big 10. Their worst 10-year period was from 1958 to 1967 when they only had 4 winning records, 1 AP Poll appearance (1964, #4), and just one bowl appearance. This run was pretty bad, but after 1967 they only missed the final AP poll two times in the following seasons until 2004. It’s a resume that most programs would love to have, but then again, they have a lack of major bowl success and not as many national titles as the others.
Nebraska: 5 National titles. All of Nebraska’s national titles came as a result of polls taken after the bowl games and every single NC has been undefeated or unbeaten (11-0-1 in 1970). Now, in 1970, Ohio State and Texas split the title with Nebraska, but both of them won polls that were decided on before the bowl games, and both lost. Therefore, the ‘Huskers remained the only unbeaten team. They then won 3 of 4 undisputed national titles in 1994, 1995, and 1997. They also lost a #1 vs. #2 national title matchup in 1993 with Florida State, beat Alabama in 1971 in the Orange Bowl in a 1 vs. 2 and also lost to Miami in the BCS title game in 2001 (a game they probably shouldn’t have been in to begin with, being ranked #4 by the AP). Thusly, by losing in 1983 to Miami (FL), they have had plenty of legit national title opportunities and only one title, 1997, could really be considered controversial, splitting with Michigan. Their record since 1953: 484-170-7. The only Big 5 bowl they haven’t won is the Rose, having played in it just once. They are under .500 in the Big 5 bowl games, which isn’t impressive, but they have been to over 30 of them combined. Their worst 10-year period was from 1953-62 when they only had two winning seasons, and is easily the worst decade of the 7 teams up for consideration. The one positive for them was when they hired Bob Devaney at the end of that run (in 1962) they immediately turned the program around. The final verdict is it’s a great program, but that 10-year run was pretty bad, however, the lack of controversial NC helps a lot.
Ohio State: 7 national titles. Their first national title was in 1942, and they had a loss, but after the bowls, nobody was undefeated. In 1954 they won the national title again but split it with UCLA, however, of the 3 undefeated teams, they were the only ones to play a bowl game. In 1957 they swept 3 of the 4 major polls for the national title, but they split it with Auburn. The reverse happened in 1961 when they won one major poll, with Alabama taking the other three. In 1968 they were undefeated and swept every poll, but in 1970 they had the split with Nebraska and Texas and the poll was taken before the bowls. They also won the title in 2002 by beating Miami (FL) in the BCS title game. Therefore, only 3 of the titles may be undisputed, but another did have 3 of the 4 major polls. Their record since 1953: 470-143-13. The Buckeyes won the 1968 title in a #1 vs. #2 matchup with USC, then beat Miami (FL) in 2002 but lost a golden opportunity losing to Florida in 2006. They have had countless other national championship opportunities losing to Michigan so many times, but that’s neither here nor there. It was hard picking a 10-year lull for the Buckeyes because they had bad years from 1958-67, but also won a national title in 1961, so no there. 1983-1992 was their worst period, with just one Big 10 title, missing the final AP poll 4 times and their highest final ranking was #7. They also went 3-5 in bowls. The Buckeyes make another very good case, hardly ever having bad seasons for more than 5 years in a row and they also have plenty of titles, some controversial, some not.
Oklahoma: 7 National titles. Ok, the first Sooners title in 1950 is marred by an Orange Bowl loss to Maryland since the NC was decided before the bowls. However, every other top 5 team lost their bowl, so who would have taken their place? 1955 features no argument as they were undefeated and won their bowl. They didn’t get to play in a bowl after their 1956 title, but every top 5 team lost besides #5 Texas A&M, so again, no controversy. Oklahoma may have won an outright title in 1974, but they were on probation. Therefore, USC took 3 of the 4 major polls in 1974. In 1975 they had one loss and #2 Arizona State went undefeated, so why not the Sun Devils? In 1985, Oklahoma had one loss and was chosen over Michigan, since the Sooners beat #1 Penn St. in the Orange Bowl. The 2000 title was undisputed as that featured a BCS title win over Florida St. The 1-loss national titles are somewhat controversial, and so is the no bowl season, but the others are pretty cut and dry. Their record since 1953: 485-155-11. Oklahoma is one of the few teams to win the Big 5 bowl games, with the Rose and Cotton victories coming in the last decade. Regarding the issue of #1 vs. #2 bowl matchups, Oklahoma is an unimpressive 1-4, only winning in 2000. They lost to Miami (FL) in 1987, LSU in 2003, USC in 2004 (a massacre) and to Florida in 2008. Their worst ten-year period may have been the worst of any major program being considered. The 1990s were horrible, going to 4 bowl games, winning only 2. They finished in the final AP poll just three times (#16 in 1991 was the highest) and had five seasons where they either had a losing record or were just .500. Well, all things considered, Oklahoma has been very good and very consistent, but that run in the 1990s was awful. How can the greatest program in history have an off-decade? No other team was that bad for that long. OU fans should be grateful Bob Stoops stepped in to save them.
Southern Cal (USC): 7 national titles. Well, of the Trojans seven titles, 1962 was undisputed, having blownout #2 Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl (before the Badgers made a near-legendary comeback). In 1967, USC survived as the best 1-loss team and won their bowl, despite it being a pre-bowl poll NC. In 1972 they won their bowl and took an outright NC, as they did again in 1974, winning 3 of the 4 polls thanks to OU’s probation. In 1978, they only took one poll’s NC thanks to Alabama’s dominance, but who was the outright champion was controversial considering so many teams had one loss. They split the title in 2003 with LSU despite the BCS’s plans, but they were dominant in 2004, beating OU in the BCS title game. Therefore, thanks to OU’s probation, 4 of their titles should be undisputed, with 1967, 1978 and 2003 being either/or situations. Their record since 1953: 448-182-18. They have a very good Rose Bowl record at 15-6, helping their overall mark in the Big 5 bowl games, also having won the Cotton and Orange bowls (3-0 between the two bowls). They have only been to the Fiesta once and never to the Sugar, so that hurts their cause, but then again, generally when they were dominant, they went to the Rose Bowl. They have a very impressive resume of going into bowl matchups as either a 1 or a 2. They beat #2 Wisconsin in the 1962 Rose Bowl, then lost to Ohio State in 1968, but made up for it by crushing Oklahoma in 2004. However, they lost their last #1 vs. #2 Texas, but that was one of the great bowl games of all-time so, let’s cut them some slack. Their worst 10-year period was from 1991 to 2000, but still, they won the Cotton and Rose Bowls in back-to-back years, 1994 and 1995 (as well finishing #13 and #12, respectively). They also shared 2 Pac-10 titles. 1991 and 2000 featured losing seasons, but every other season had them at .500 or better, so for a bad stretch, it wasn’t bad at all. Now, considering the overall strength of those stats, USC can make a very good case, but then again, their conference may easily be the weakest of the bunch. Even though Oklahoma and Nebraska have weak competition, they still had to battle each other and Colorado, which were legit threats.
Texas: 4 National Titles. Despite only having 4 titles, the Longhorns still have some pretty good claims, considering in 1963 they beat #2 Navy and Heisman winner Roger Staubach convincingly in the Cotton Bowl. In 1969, after a grueling game with Arkansas ended with President Richard Nixon proclaiming the ‘Horns the NC, UT survived an amazing game with Notre Dame, 21-17. In 1970 they had a little less to brag about, splitting the NC with Nebraska and Ohio State. They also lost their bowl game to Notre Dame. In 2005 they survived maybe the greatest game of all-time, beating 2-time defending champs USC in the BCS title game, so three of the four titles are pretty undisputed. Only the 1970 title has reason for doubt, what with two other legit contenders. Their record since 1953: 457-180-10. Texas can claim 4 of the Big 5 bowls, but considering they’ve only played in the Sugar Bowl twice, they could easily have had them all. Nonetheless, they had numerous Cotton Bowl appearances during the SWC’s heyday, clinching numerous NCs and playing in some bowl games with major NC implications. Vince Young also led them to back-to-back Rose Bowls. They beat Navy in a #1 vs. #2 bowl game in 1963 and they also clinched some polls in 1969 by beating Arkansas in a #1 vs. #2 clash in December (since some polls still voted before the polls). There is also the 2005 BCS game, where enough has been said. The worst part for Texas is their 10-year drought from 1984 to 1993 where they only finished in the final AP poll once, 1990 (#12). They had four losing seasons, but the shining light is not just 4 bowl games, but making the then-prestigious Cotton Bowl in 1990, even though that game ended badly. In conclusion, that 10-year streak is inexcusable for a team that doesn’t have enough national titles to begin with to really be considered the best. The SWC was also getting a little weak at that point, especially with SMU getting the death penalty. Houston, Arkansas and Texas A&M had become very good however, so maybe the losing ways were to be expected.
After looking at all the evidence, every team has a very good record since 1953, so going by that is probably pointless, but it’s fun to compare who had the most wins (best win pct.). Also, even though national titles are subjective, Texas, Michigan and Nebraska get the axe. Nebraska was a tough cut to make, especially considering how indisputable their national titles really are. Still, they have had a good run since 1962, and that’s how they pile up most of their points. Then again, their titles come in spurts, back-to-back ones in the 70s, then 3 of 4 in the 90s, so it’s almost as if they have great spurts, then a 9-win season and a Big 5 loss (2-6 in Big 5 bowls from 1984 to 1992, and a Citrus Bowl loss to NC GA Tech in 1990). That won’t cut it.
Now, you have USC, Ohio State, Oklahoma and Alabama. Ohio State, I would love to choose you, it seems pretty wise, but then again, you have struggled so many times in big games and could do so much more to be an all-time program. While the Buckeyes had chances at winning NC if they could just beat Michigan numerous times, from 1980 to 2001 they basically went 22 seasons without having a shot at the NC come bowl season. USC, yeah very impressive, but I can’t get over the lack of real competition. Yes, Oregon is coming on, Stanford was good in the 70s, UW was great under Don James and UCLA has been consistent for decades, but only a handful of times was USC’s competition elite.
So, this leaves Alabama and OU. Now, Sooners fans, there’s no love lost, but let’s face it, the Big 8 wasn’t that great. I know Colorado has been good since the early 70s and Nebraska was on a roll for awhile, but Iowa State, Missouri, Kansas St. Those are some of the worst programs ever, hardly ever rising up for great seasons. Oklahoma State was only good sparingly, but never NC competition. Kansas has been good at times, but again, not NC worthy. Alabama meanwhile, they have had 6 other teams win NC. In the 2000s they had Florida and LSU win NC, which I realize wasn’t Alabama’s strongest decade. Still, besides Alabama’s title, Tennessee and Florida each won titles in the 90s, Georgia took one in the 80s and the Crimson Tide dominated the 70s. Before that, Ole Miss and Auburn would claim titles under great coaches like Johnny Vaught and Shug Jordan in the 50s and 60s. Auburn even deserved a title in 1993 but were on probation. Paul “Bear” Bryant saved this program in 1958 and the tradition he established delivered titles in the 60s, 70s and then resurrected itself under a Bryant protégé, Gene Stallings, in 1992. All of this coupled with the scandals and probation involved with the Oklahoma programs during some national title runs (’74), it’s hard to excuse the Sooners. Would they have won without cheating under Switzer’s reign, because NCAA officials were constantly snooping around? The probation doesn’t seal the deal, however, it’s the SEC competition, and considering what Alabama has been doing for decades, against all of that talent, makes them my greatest college football program since 1936 (the invention of the AP poll).
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