Friday, July 3, 2009

Top 25 Fantasy TEs

Ever since Ken McAfee of Notre Dame broke new ground for tight ends in the mid-70s by making it into the Heisman race, the position has been a coveted position for teams with pro-set offenses and teams looking for more options in the red zone. BYU revolutionized the position shortly thereafter thanks to big-time yardage gainers Clay Brown, Gordon Hudson and Chris Smith. Other teams have produced outstanding TEs, Carlester Crumpler Jr. of East Carolina, Pete Mitchell of Boston College (almost 2,400 yards), and others who won the newly created Mackey Award, given to the nation's best tight end. This year should be an outstanding season for tight ends and if you can get an elite one early, you will definitely have an advantage over the other players/teams in your league. Let's get to it.

1. Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma- With only one experienced WR returning alongside him and a fantastic QB to get him the ball, Gresham should have plenty of yards and TDs. The offense won't be as high-powered this year, but he'll still do great.
2. Dennis Pitta, BYU- Unlike Gresham, Pitt has ZERO great WRs to take away his receiving opportunities. He'll get plenty of his numbers while in the red zone. He should get a 1,000 yards again easy, probably 10+ TDs.
3. Cody Slate, Marshall- Slate missed a few games last year, so his receiving totals could have been much better. He should be healthy this year and have big numbers due to the offensive system he's in.
4. Rob Gronkowski, Arizona- There are a lot of good WRs around and two talented RBs to take away his productivity, but with a new QB comes a reliance on safety valves, and Gronkowski is one of the best. When the wideouts are covered, he'll be a nice big target across the middle for new starting QB Matt Scott.
5. DJ Williams, Arkansas- With QB Ryan Mallett on board, the Razorbacks offense should be in high gear this season and that means good things for this talented TE.
6. Ed Dickson, Oregon- Considering the QB'ing carousel the Ducks went on last season, it's amazing he had as good a numbers as he did. They can only go up with the loss of 2 good WRs and the fact he'll have more time to gel with Masoli.
7. Aaron Hernandez, Florida- He became an effective weapon for Tebow in the bowl game last season and has become one of his favorite targets recently, especially with the development of that famed "jump pass" Tebow loves to throw near the goalline.
8. Jamie McCoy, Texas A&M- He was a fantastic find for QB Jerrod Johnson last season and became a man of great importance in certain fantasy leagues (especially considering he helped to keep me undefeated). He should be even better this season as a full-time starter.
9. Garrett Graham, Wisconsin- I don't trust Graham this much as he has plenty of risk/reward possibilities. The QB position is not very stable even though he could produce big numbers. Pick him and beware.
10. Richard Dickson, LSU- If Jordan Jefferson takes over as the full-time starter, then I think Dickson could be an invaluable weapon near the goalline.
11. Greg Boone, VA Tech- He can be a decent runner when the Hokies choose to use him and is also a huge target in every respect. He has the potential for a massive season, it all depends on the erratic Tyrod Taylor.
12. Mike McNeill, Nebraska- Without a reliable starting QB, who knows if McNeill will be as productive this season. However, he is the best returning weapon among the wideouts, so keep an eye on his numbers throughout the year.
13. Tony Moeaki, Iowa- I think without Shonn Greene at TB, the Hawkeyes passing numbers will go up a bit this season and Moeaki will be a huge benificiary.
14. Charlie Gantt, Michigan St.- If Keith Nichol takes over as the starter, then the passing numbers might go down because he's a great runner. Thanks to a bunch of talented returning WRs, his numbers may be a bit suspect.
15. Jason Harmon, Florida Atlantic- Rusty Smith is a QB, so I think Harmon's numbers will be outstanding. He had a good 2007 and was out last season, but he should return in good shape and ready to put up outstanding stats.
16. Andrew Quarless, Penn St.- All of QB Daryll Clark's talented WRs are gone, so we shall see how much Quarless can benefit, especially in the red zone. I don't think the offense will do quite as well this season, so he's a risky pick.
17. Anthony McCoy, USC- If you've noticed, head coaches who have NFL coaching experience place an emphasis on finding good TEs and Pete Carroll is a natural at doing that. McCoy should have good numbers, but not great.
18. Jeron Mastrud, Kansas St.- There's no really great QB left, but the offense is high-octane and loves to pitch the ball around, so Mastrud should get his no matter what happens. Also, with a JUCO transfer at QB, the transfer shouldn't take as long as it normally would.
19. Ryan Moya, UCLA- The Bruins were awful passing the ball last season, throwing a ton of picks, but Moya still had outstanding numbers. Assuming someone even halfway decent steps forward he'll put up even better numbers in terms of yards and TDs (600+ and 7+ I'd guess).
20. Ben Guidugli, Cincinnati- The Bearcats love to pass so watch out for this multi-talented converted QB. If stud WR Marcus Barnett does get moved over to CB, as is expected, then Ben should have vastly improved numbers.
21. Blaine Irby, Texas- If Colt McCoy can even produce 2/3 of the numbers he had last season, then Irby should have a very good season. He got hurt last year early in the season, which took away one of McCoy's favorite targets, but be rest assured McCoy will remember who he is in the fall.
22. Terrance Williams, San Jose St.- Here is a good TE surrounded by a QB who struggles a lot and a running game that can never get on track. I would hope he has improved numbers this season, but I wouldn't bet the house on it.
23. Kyle Efaw, Boise St.- Here is a player who can only benefit from QB Moore's maturity as a sophomore. Boise generally loves to use their TEs, so this is always a good bet.
24. Josh LeDuc, Eastern Michigan- Andy Schmitt is a QB who loves to sling the ball around and if he can't find Jacory Stone, he'll go to his safety valve, Mr. LeDuc, one of the best pass-catching TEs around. He could have outstanding numbers, a real sleeper pick.
25. Kyle Rudolph. Notre Dame- This would be a good pick only because I think Notre Dame will really sling the ball around all over the field with Clausen calling the signals and taking the naps. However, I fear stud WRs Floyd and Tate may take away the majority of TDs, so that's not good for fantasy owners.

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Top 65 Fantasy WRs

College football wide receivers sure have evolved over the years. Some smaller schools back in the day, such as Tulsa and San Diego St., had a much more modern passing game and thus put up huge scoring numbers. While at least half the country went to the Wishbone offense that was developed by Emory Bellard and others, these teams threw the ball all over the place. Quarterbacks such as Mark Herrmann of Purdue, Jim McMahon and Ty Detmer of BYU, Doug Flutie of BC and Alex Van Pelt of Pitt all turned out huge passing yardage numbers thanks to high-octane offenses. However, the greatest of success may have developed in the Southwest, where Andre Ware of Houston put up such spectacular passing numbers of 1989 that he won the Heisman despite not playing once on national TV. Then, the Klingler boys, David and Jimmy, had good numbers at Houston, while SMU revitalized it's program with Mike Romo passing the ball to SB Jason Wolf, who holds the SWC record for receptions with 235. Maybe even more impressive, during Ware's Heisman campaign, his favorite target, Manny Hazard, had 142 receptions in 11 games!! That's almost 13 receptions a game. Anyways, thanks to the run 'n' shoot, which eventually evolved into the modern spread offense and quick passing games employed at Texas Tech, Purdue and Missouri. Even Rice got caught up in the passing frenzy after flexbone head coach Ken Hatfield left the program a few years ago and developed superstar WR Jarrett Dillard. Well, now there are more good WRs than ever, and with Michael Crabtree leaving early for the NFL draft, it's up for grabs as to who is #1. Let's get to the list.

1. Dezmon Briscoe, Kansas- I think this is the safest pick in the WR section, even with competition from teammate Kerry Meier for catches. Todd Reesing will throw plenty of yards and TDs and Briscoe will benefit. The Big 12 North is pretty weak and Duke, Northern Colorado and UTEP won't provide much resistance either.
2. Dez Bryant, Oklahoma St.- Thanks to QB Zac Robinson's preference for finding him all over the field, Bryant will have gigantic numbers. No other WR will take away opportunities. Houston, Rice, Grambling St., Iowa State and Texas Tech should see him soar to big numbers.
3. Mardy Gilyard, Cincinnati- If Marcus Barnett does move primarily to DB, then Gilyard will be the go-to guy. If Barnett stays, then they will form probably the best receiving combo east of Dallas. SE Missouri St., Miami (OH) and Fresno St. make for easy target dates.
4. Aldrick Robinson, SMU- Whether you get Robinson or Sanders, you'll be happy. Bo Levi Mitchell should only improve this season and these two will both benefit. I think only TCU and East Carolina will provide challenges for these two game-breakers. I expect even better numbers from these two and they combined for 126 rec., 2005 yds and 20 TDs last season.
5. Emmanuel Sanders, SMU- See Robinson.
6. Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma- He has an All-American TE challenging him for catches and two dynamic RBs to take away yards, but you know with Bradford's ability he'll get plenty of opportunities for big plays. Texas and Miami (FL) are the only tough defenses on tap.
7. Detron Lewis, Texas Tech- Taylor Potts should do just fine at QB and with Michael Crabtree leaving early, someone has to pick up the slack and he'll be the man. Good combination of possession receiver and deep threat. OU and Texas are the only scares defensively in 2009.
8. DeAndre Brown, Southern Miss- Assuming he returns with no ill effects from that horrific injury in the bowl game, he is the premier deep threat in the country. Also, he has size to score in the red zone. Maybe Kansas, Louisville and East Carolina will challenge him, but not a whole lot.
9. Tyrone Carrier, Houston- He's small, but he can do it all. Patrick Edwards and LJ Castille might take away some yards, but when your QB throws for 4,500-5,000 yards, who cares, you'll still get yours. No real tough defenses on the schedule besides Southern Miss.
10. Ryan Wolfe, UNLV- This would be a risky pick if it weren't for the fact that the Rebels have no running game and QB Omar Clayton loves to look for Wolfe on every play. Utah and TCU might be tough opposition, but the Utes lose a lot of talent, so he could put up big numbers.
11. Golden Tate, Notre Dame- Coach Charlie Weis loves to throw the ball and should really unleash QB Jimmy Clausen, which means who knows how many yards Tate and counterpart Michael Floyd could put up. Michigan, USC and BC will be rough, but he should still contribute.
12. Greg Salas, Hawaii- Well, the Warriors haven't gone far away from the offense June Jones installed when he was coach. The passing game may not be as prolific, but with a starting QB finally settled upon, Salas should do well. Boise St. is the only good defense on the schedule.
13. Antonio Brown, Central Michigan- I think QB Dan LeFevour will be healthier in this his senior season, so that can only mean good things for Brown. Even with Bryan Anderson around, he'll produce big-time. Only Michigan St. and BC will be a major challenge.
14. Jordan Shipley, Texas- I think with Quan Cosby gone, Shipley will be even more of a factor in the red zone and all over the field. QB Colt McCoy may not do as well as he did in 2008, but Shipley will be great as always. Only Oklahoma is a proven factor defensively.
15. Naaman Roosevelt, Buffalo- There's no proven QB to get him the ball, but with only Pittsburgh and Temple being even average defensively, Roosevelt should get 1,000 yards easily. Hopefully for fantasy owners he will come close to the 1,400 yards and 13 TDs of '08.
16. Kris Adams, UTEP- This player is high because of all the TDs he caught last season and with no great RB around, QB Trevor Vittatoe may have to throw even more this season. Even if Jeff Moturi is on the other side, he will be quite productive. Only Kansas and Texas stands in the way of a great season statistically.
17. Jacory Stone, Eastern Michigan-
18. Kerry Meier, Kansas-For some reason, the Eagles just don't throw the ball that much. On the other hand, why would they with Stone at WR and Andy Schmitt under center? Michigan seems to be the only top-notch defense he faces, however, EMU has lots of road games, so beware.
19. Eric Decker, Minnesota- Decker does have to face Penn St. and Ohio St. on the road, but every other team is quite vulnerable. Adam Weber is a stud at QB and newcomer Hayo Carpenter should take the pressure off of Decker, who has already had a nice career.
20. Edward Britton, Texas Tech-Counterpart Tramain Swindall could fit in this spot just as easily, but Britton has more experience. It's important to note that even the 2nd best WR on Texas Tech will produce more than 90% of other team's #1 WR.
21. Cortez Gent, Florida Atlantic- Rusty Smith will get him the ball early and often and without much of a running game, 1,000 yards is a given. Jason Harmon is back at TE, so that will help too. Nebraska and South Carolina will be tough to start with, but then things get much easier.
22. Juan Nunez, Western Michigan- With Jamarko Simmons and others gone, Nunez should be the man and develop a quick relationship with QB Tim Hiller. If the running game continues to be effective, he'll put up big numbers. Only Michigan and Michigan St. will pose a threat.
23. Marcus Anderson, New Mexico St.- The Aggies will need to have a new QB develop quickly if Anderson is to fulfill his All-American potential. No other receivers pose a threat to take away receptions and the only good defense he will face is Boise St.
24. Carlos Singleton, Memphis- With Arkelon Hall back at QB and no standout WR to challenge him, Singleton should be a dangerous weapon, especially in the red zone. I predict a fantastic season despite Tennessee, Southern Miss and East Carolina on the schedule.
25. Toren Dixon (or Corbin Smiter), Rice- There are two good WRs left at this program, but without an accurate QB, their numbers could suffer a lot. However, with the way the offense is programmed, they should produce near 1,000 yards. The two challenges will be when they face Vanderbilt and East Carolina, two strong defenses.
26. James Rodgers, Oregon St.- Not only could he catch a ton of passes, but he will get good yardage on flanker sweeps. He's a dangerous weapon with a good supporting cast and with only USC on the schedule, he will be even more productive this season.
27. Jacoby Ford, Clemson- The Tigers should have a competent enough QB to get Ford the ball and he should produce plenty of yards and TDs. With James Davis gone, he will get more touches. With BC, TCU, Florida St. and GA Tech around the schedule won't be easy, but it's not too bad.
28. Damaris Johnson, Tulsa- Jacob Bower will fit nicely at QB, and with this dynamic offense, Johnson will get his yardage no matter what. Playing at Oklahoma and Southern Miss will be tough road tests, and home dates with Boise St. and East Carolina aren't particularly easy either.
29. Terrell Turner, Arizona-This is a risky pick only if Matt Scott doesn't develop as an accurate passer. Even with two good RBs, another good WR and Rob Gronkowski at TE, Turner will put up good numbers. Only Iowa and USC will be particularly strong opposition.
30. Brandon Banks, Kansas St.- Only road dates with Oklahoma and UCLA should derail him from having a great season. Breaking in a new QB won't help him much either, but he should have a season, especially with Deon Murphy gone.
31. Kendall Wright, Baylor- If Griffin keeps progressing as a smart and accurate QB, then Wright should improve in every area; receptions, yards and TDs. Texas and OU will be tough, as will Wake Forest, but the Demon Deacons do lose Alphonso Smith, so they may not be as challenging.
32. Jeff Moturi, UTEP- With Trevor Vittatoe being an outstanding QB, there's room for both Adams and Moturi in this draft. Moturi still had plenty of TDs last season and his yardage should be better with more experience playing in the system.
33. TY Hilton, Florida International- It will be nearly impossible for Hilton to match last year's yards per catch average, but he will be a star yet again. His value is hurt because CBS sports doesn't count KR/PR. Going to Alabama and Florida won't help his stats, but he'll do fine.
34. Tim Brown, Rutgers- The new QB won't be half as good as Mike Teel, but with the two other standout WRs gone, Brown will be who the new QB leans on most of the season, which could mean big things. USF, WV and Maryland will be minor competition.
35. Mike Williams, Syracuse- If the Orange are smart enough to keep Cameron Dantley at QB, then Williams should have a tremendous season. They have a pretty easy schedule, aside from a trip to Penn St. and home dates with USF and West Virginia early in the season.
36. Jerrel Jernigan, Troy- Jernigan would have had even better stats last season if he didn't get injured. Levi Brown will help him put up great numbers and with Florida being the only tough defense he faces, who knows how great he will be.
37. Deryn Bowser, Akron- I think Jacquemain is an underrated QB and he's good because he has Bowser and Andre Jones, two WRs who overachieve immensely. Only the opener at Penn St, will cause him to have an off day. Northern Illinois may also be a tricky one on the road.
38. Austin Pettis, Boise St.- Pettis will thrive as Kellen Moore's only returning WR with any experience. The only thing that could derail a superb season is if Moore has a sophomore slump. Oregon will be a challenge, but Boise gets them at home so, he should be free and clear for '09.
39. Michael Floyd, Notre Dame- As I said with Golden Tate, Clausen could get the go-ahead to throw even more this season, which means their stats will go up if they play up to potential.
40. Jeremy Williams, Tulane- If Joe Kemp starts as Phil Steele predicts, then Bob Toledo, generally regarded as a smart coach, needs to be fired. Kevin Moore is far better and could help Williams put up good stats. Consecutive road trips to Southern Miss and LSU will halt his productivity, but otherwise, he'll do bad things to opposing defenses.
41. Patrick Edwards, Houston- If he hadn't suffered a horrible leg injury last season, he would have surpassed 1,000 yards easily and should so this season. Keenum is a fantastic QB and will do enough to keep him and Carrier happy.
42. Rashaun Greer, Colorado St.- This is tricky because Greer had a lot of yards last season, but counterpart Dion Morton had all the TDs (10 to 3). This is a tricky pick since the Rams will have a new QB, but thankfully the MWC won't be as good as 2008. However, TCU will be a challenge.
43. Damian Williams, USC- I don't know who will be the Trojans new QB, but in their productive, pro-style offense, Williams should get good yardage and probably 10+ TDs. A road trip to Ohio St. will be interesting, but the rest isn't so bad, including Notre Dame and UCLA.
44. Brandon LaFell, LSU- Jordan Jefferson will only improve as a QB with more reps and LaFell should have another great season, much like he did last year with no real competent QB to get him the ball. Alabama and Florida will be stern tests, but he will do well against everyone else.
45. Keith Smith, Purdue- He could be a steal if you get him this late in the draft. That is, provided new QB Joey Elliott steps up and has decent numbers. Almost everyone else who contributed in '08 is gone, so look for a huge jump. Ohio St. will not be easy at home and neither will be road games at Oregon or Michigan.
46. Jimmy Young, TCU- Andy Dalton is another underrated, but highly productive QB and he's only as good as he is because Young is a stud at WR. Going to UVa and Clemson might hurt his numbers, but dates with New Mexico, Texas St. and SMU will more than make up for it.
47. Arrelious Benn, Illinois- Only if he gets more TDs will Benn be a good draft pick. He may get plenty of yards, but again, CBS doesn't count KR/PRs, so that hurts him. Home games with Penn St. and Michigan will not help his cause, nor will a road date with Ohio St. on Sep. 26.
48. Shay Hodge, Ole Miss- This is a good pick because what he lacked in overall yards last season he made up for with 8 TDs. Those numbers should improve with Jevan Snead becoming a star at QB. Alabama, Vandy and LSU will be minor roadblocks to a terrific season.
49. Andrew Brewer (or Jeremy Ebert), Northwestern- Brewer has the size and speed to be the star of this receiving corps and Mike Kafka won't disappoint as the new QB. The Wildcats don't have to play Michigan or Ohio St., so that is quite beneficial for fantasy owners.
50. Owen Spencer, N.C. State- With Wake Forest, Florida St., BC and VA Tech all on the road, this may be a dangerous pick. Still, I think Russell Wilson continue to mature as a QB, which means Spencer's numbers could skyrocket. Wilson did spread the ball around a lot last season, but he will learn to use his go-to guy more often.
51. Ronald Johnson, USC- With Patrick Turner gone, that means more room for Mitch Mustain or Aaron Corp, whoever starts at QB, to spread the ball around to both him and Williams.
52. Dexter McCluster, Ole Miss- As long as Houston Nutt continues to employ the "Wild Rebel" formation, McCluster should go well over a 1,000 yards rushing/receiving combined again in 2009. Semi-tough schedule, but the high-powered offense will make up for it.
53. Chris McGaha, Arizona St.- The Sun Devils were awful offensively last season and if a QB doesn't develop quickly, things could be just as bad in '09. He has potential, but who knows if it will be able to shine through. Weak schedule, aside from USC and a road trip to Georgia.
54. Jock Sanders, West Virginia- If he's eligible. He should have good receiving numbers, especially in terms of TDs, and his running numbers are surprisingly good. East Carolina may be a tough trip, as will road dates with USF and Auburn. However, it's not too daunting a task.
55. Jessie Hester, USF- QB Matt Grothe should again put up good numbers, especially with three easy non-conference games to start the year. Florida St., Miami (FL) and WV could be tough, but with his experience, he'll find a way to be productive.
56. Doug Beaumont, Louisville- The new QB will have to develop quickly if Beaumont is going to top 750 yards again, especially with a deep and talented receiving corps behind him. The numerous road games may hurt the new QB, but it will be interesting to monitor all season.
57. Nyan Boateng, Cal- Kevin Riley will finally be the man at QB, which could be promising for Boateng, a speedster with decent size. Maryland will be challenging, but it's the opener so that's not as bad. The Pac-10 is so weak I see no real opposition aside from USC, who was decimated on defense by the draft.
58. Vincent Brown, San Diego St.- Ryan Lindley should only get better as a sophomore, which I think means Brown will approach 1,000 yards. If his TD total improves too, he could be a steal. UCLA is a tough non-conference game, as is TCU in conference, but the rest is pretty easy.
59. Slick Shelley, Tulsa- He had a lot of promise at Tennessee and is fulfilling that potential at Tulsa, even with a ton of other talented players around him to whom he has to share the ball.
60. Chris Wellington, Nevada- It may surprise some people that the Wolf Pack had a 1,000 yard receiver last season, especially when you consider how great their running game was. I think Wellington slides into that star receiver spot and has a great season. He will get his every week.
61. Seyi Ajirotutu, Fresno St.- Provided the stable of RBs don't get all the TDs, this man will be a threat from all over the field; he has enough speed to burn people deep and the size near the goalline to make big plays. I see him having trouble with Wisconsin and Boise St., but other than those two, and despite having a new QB, he should come close to a 1,000 yards, if not surpass it.
62. Malcolm Lane, Hawaii- This position could go to Lane or Daniel Lofton, but whoever the #2 WR is on the big island, he will have a lot of yards and TDs. This pick may hinge on how successful Greg Alexander is as the full-time QB. Only Boise St. poses a threat on the schedule.
63. Stephen Williams, Toledo- Even with two good RBs chewing up yards, QB Aaron Opelt will find Williams a lot this season. Beware because his numbers dropped last season compared to '07. Playing Ohio St. and Purdue won't help his cause much either.
64. Darrell McNeal, Louisiana-Monroe- He does lose a very accurate QB in Kinsmon Lancaster, but he also has been the man at WR for two seasons now, putting up impressive stats for a balanced offense. He plays at Texas and at Kentucky, which will be tough for a new QB, but the rest is slim pickens, enough with plenty of road games.
65. Phillip Livas, Louisiana Tech- Here's another player who won't wow you with receiving numbers right away, but his rushing/receiving potential maThey play at LSU and Auburn, and of course home to Boise St., but that won't be as overmatched as one might think.

Honorable mention: Riley Cooper, Florida, Montez Billings, Auburn, Jarred Fayson, Illinois, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Iowa, Mark Dell, Michigan St., David Gilreath, Wisconsin, Jeff Fuller, Texas A&M, Aldarius Johnson, Miami (FL), Greg Little, UNC, David Reed, Utah, Greg Bolling, Wyoming, Frantrell Forrest, UAB, Taylor Price, Ohio, Briggs Orsbon, Ball St.

A quick note; I didn't put a Missouri or BYU receiver on this list because I don't know who will be the stars yet. Danario Alexander has potential at Mizzou, while BYU has plenty of options. Keep an eye on these teams, I'm sure someone will develop eventually.

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Top 50 Fantasy RBs

Well, this list will be a lot more difficult to compile than the top QBs for many reasons. For one, good starting QBs will never get benched, no matter how much they struggle unless the coach is fearing for his job. If a RB has 50 yards over 3 games, coaches have no qualms about sitting a supposed "star." Second, very rarely does a QB come out of nowhere to start for a productive team, unless your Kevin McDougal at Notre Dame in 1993, but even he lucked out as super freshman Ron Powlus got injured and didn't play. A fifth or sixth string running back can surprise the coaches and get the call to be great, ala Warrick Dunn for Florida State in that same year, 1993. Third, RBs will often split carries unless they are a Donald Brown at UConn last year, so if there are two good backs, like Jeremiah Johnson and LeGarrette Blount at Oregon, who knows which one will get the bulk of the carries for that week. And lastly, WRs are taking more rushing yards out of the equation thanks to Jim Grobe of Wake Forest and Urban Meyer at Florida who have tinkered with new ways of getting the hands into their speedy wideouts by way of quick hand-offs while the WR goes in motion. Anyways, enough foreplay, let's get to the list.

1. Jahvid Best, Cal- He has a good QB and WRs to keep the pressure off him. He's also a great receiver and the only tests will be USC, who loses a ton of starters, and at Oregon, both early in the season. Tons of speed, a real talent.
2. Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma St.- Georgia may be a tough game, but at least OSU gets them at home. Also, Houston, Rice, Grambling St., Iowa St. and Texas Tech should be big games for him. He also has a great QB, good backup RBs and a star WR to help a loaded offense.
3. Vai Taua, Nevada- Unless former star Luke Lippincott regains his job, Taua and QB Colin Kaepernick will rush for a ton of yards. Missouri and Notre Dame may not be easy tests, but UNLV, Idaho, New Mexico St. and Hawaii should get him plenty of yards.
4. Jonathan Dwyer, GA Tech- He averaged a ton of yards per carry last season and had plenty of long runs. With the flexbone offense he's in, he'll see plenty of opportunities for big gainers again. His division is weak, as is Jacksonville St. and at Mississippi St.
5. Eugene Jarvis, Kent St.- This is a confidence pick more than a can't miss one. With Julius Edelman running all over the place last season, Jarvis lost a ton of yards and TDs. He gets Buffalo, Eastern and Western Michigan and Coastal Carolina, all potential big games. He will also be the feature back for a new QB who won't be allowed to throw too much.
6. Damion Fletcher, Southern Miss- East Carolina and Kansas, possibly Louisville, are the only real tough defenses he should face all season. He also get his entire OL and plenty of weapons to take the pressure off of him. There's also no second RB to threaten his carries.
7. Evan Royster, Penn St.- This may be a risky pick because QB Daryll Clark has no viable WRs to throw to and his numbers can only go down from last year. The non-conference is especially pitiful, however, and Joe Paterno usually sticks to one dominant RB for a whole season.
8. Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon St.- Once again, here's another RB who has no competition for the bulk of the carries on offense and a good QB to share the burden on offense. Portland St., UNLV and Cincinnati should be big games, as is the rest of the Pac-10, an especially weak conference.
9. Darren Evans, VA Tech- Alabama and Nebraska may be tough defensive tests, but generally when a VA Tech offense gets rolling, the TB puts up big numbers. He may not have but 2 explosive games, but he'll get enough carries to be worth a high pick.
10. Bryce Beall, Houston- Despite games with Oklahoma St., Texas Tech and Southern Miss, Beall will have fantastic numbers. He's in possibly the most high-powered offense in the country and his division is very weak. With Keenum throwing all over the place, he'll grind out a lot of extra yards clinching games late.
11. LeGarrette Blount, Oregon- I love this kid; he has tons of home-run potential and was quite underrated last year. With Jeremiah Masoli and Andre Crenshaw potential running threats as well, this offense will be just as explosive. Schedule is kind of rough, but manageable.
12. Harvey Unga, BYU- With plenty of QB Max Hall's receiving threats gone, I think the Cougars will lean on the ground game a lot more at times. He's also a good receiver. Tulane and Utah St. will be big non-conference games and the rest of the MWC is not too rough.
13. Charles Scott, LSU- Despite stiff competition from Keiland Williams and Richard Murphy, Scott is a dynamic back who can carry the rushing load by himself and score tons of TDs near the goalline. Only Alabama and Florida will be the only outstanding defenses he faces.
14. CJ Spiller, Clemson- This ranking is for potential. TCU and South Carolina won't be easy defenses to face, but the rest of the ACC and non-conference is not that hard. Now, he may not have as many receptions being the go-to back and CBS sports doesn't count KR/PRs.
15. Toby Gerhart, Stanford- This player's output will likely depend on who starts at QB and how well they pass downfield and not allow teams to stack the line. San Jose St., Wake Forest and Notre Dame will be tough defenses, but the Pac-10 isn't that challenging.
16. Craig Cooper, Miami (FL)- Cooper will be an outstanding back if he can wrestle the bulk of the carries away from TB Javarris James. An experienced OL also returns to help him out. Be wary of games with South Florida and Oklahoma, while the rest are pretty basic.
17. Noel Devine, West Virginia- Devine is another big-play hitter and assuming new QB Jarrett Brown and slot WR Jock Sanders don't steal a lot of carries, his numbers should improve. He should also get more TDs without Pat White. Some non-conference games will be tricky, same for USF, but the rest of the schedule isn't too daunting.
18. MiQuale Lewis, Ball St.- Without QB Nate Davis, this will be a rough season for Lewis, who has a rough act to follow from '08. He can take the bulk of the carries, but his TD production will almost have to drop. The non-conference schedule is light, however, besides Auburn, so there is potential.
19. Andre Anderson, Tulane- Luckily, this back plays in the weak division of C-USA, while Army and McNeese St. have the potential for huge outputs. The QB position is unsettled, but they have good weapons on the flanks to help out.
20. Cyrus Gray, Texas A&M- With Mike Goodson now gone, Gray will be the feature back and has loads of potential. He's also got good weapons to support him. The non-conference schedule is very easy, but Oklahoma and Texas will be tough games.
21. Derrick Washington, Missouri- Their offense won't be nearly as successful as last year, but he should be the man yet again and have plenty of chances to score TDs, whoever's QBing the team. Bowling Green, Furman and Nevada will be opportunities for huge numbers.
22. Daniel Porter, LA Tech- LSU and Auburn will be rough non-conference opponents, but the WAC is pretty easy, including the toughest opponent, Boise St. at home. I like Porter because LT is run-oriented and he's a great receiver who may not have huge games, but be consistent.
23. Curtis Steele, Memphis-Assuming the Tigers' offense improves, Steele should have similar yardage numbers and more TDs. He also has a great passing game to support him. His three toughest games come in four weeks vs. Southern Miss, East Carolina, and Tennessee.
24. DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma- He, along with Brown, should put up similar numbers to 2008 because QB Sam Bradford loses most of his big-play WRs. Even if they split carries, both backs will shine in blowouts and near the goalline. The schedule is nice and easy as well.
25. Chris Brown, Oklahoma- (SEE DeMarco Murray)
26. James Starks, Buffalo- There's no great QB to take the pressure off, but the WRs should pose enough of a threat to keep defenses honest. He's also a great receiver and used to handling a lot of carries. The non-conference isn't very tough, nor is most of the MAC.
27. Victor Anderson, Louisville- He has some rough games at Utah, home vs. Southern Miss and possibly Kentucky, but the rest isn't too hard. However, he doesn't have a great QB to help out and may have a sophomore slump. With a good OL to help, he should be ok.
28. Roy Helu, Nebraska- Assuming Quentin Castille doesn't take away too many carries, and a QB develops soon, Helu should have a great season. The non-conference is quite easy, aside from VA Tech, and Oklahoma will be a tough defense in-conference.
29. Jaycen Taylor, Purdue- If he can come back from a tough injury, despite losing his QB, Taylor will be bad news for opposing Big 10 defenses. He's got good speed and is a good receiver. He also gets lucky by avoiding Penn St. and only Notre Dame and Oregon are tough non-conference foes.
30. Michael Smith, Arkansas- Troy may be a rough non-conference foe, as will LSU, Florida and Alabama from the SEC, but if Ryan Mallett is the talent at QB people expect him to be, Smith will have lots of running lanes to go through in this explosive offense.
31. Nic Grigsby, Arizona- The non-conference games are a joke and with a ton of great WRs to help out new QB Matt Scott, Grigsby will be explosive. Even if Keola Antolin takes away a few carries, the offense will score enough to make the split-time not matter very much.
32. Jake Sharp, Kansas- Almost all of the skill position players return on offense for the Jayhawks, which means Sharp should have loads of opportunities near the goalline and a lot of help all-around. Southern Miss, Oklahoma and Texas will be brutal, but everything else is easy.
33. Da'Rel Scott, Maryland- This Terps' offense hasn't been that explosive for around a decade or more and this is a risky pick. Assuming Scott gets the same amount of carries as last season, and Devin Meggett doesn't get a larger role, Scott will be good for another 1200 yards and 10-12 TDs. Easy schedule until the end of the season with VA Tech, Florida St. and BC.
34. Reggie Arnold, Arkansas St.- The non-conference will be tough with Nebraska, Iowa and Louisville all coming on the road, but the division is pretty weak aside from usual powehouse Troy. Also, Arnold benefits from outstanding QB Corey Leonard back to threaten opposing defenses and he could see increased receiving numbers.
35. Armando Allen, Notre Dame- VERY risky pick, huge potential, but also huge bust risk in a pass-heavy offense. He might share carries with Robert Hughes also, so he's only considered a good backup fantasy pick, Michigan, USC and BC will be the only challenging defenses.
36. Brandon Minor, Michigan- The Wolverines have to improve offensively in Rich Rodriguez's system and I believe Minor will be a big part of that resurgence. He gets Western and Eastern Michigan along with Delaware St. to help pad the stats.
37. Brandon West, Western Michigan- West will only be a big fantasy pick when Hiller doesn't get the go-ahead to throw 40+ times. He can catch a lot of passes, but didn't always get TD opportunities in the red zone. Michigan and Michigan St. will be tough matchups defensively.
38. DuJuan Harris, Troy- He's a mighty mouse back who plays in the right offense. With a dynamic passing game and an offense that believes in running it 30+ times to establish dominance, he should always have decent numbers. Florida will be tough, but no other team stands out as a total defensive mismatch, even Arkansas.
39. John Clay, Wisconsin-Even with Zach Brown lurking around, he should establish himself as the clear-cut #1 back and in Wisconsin's offense, that means plenty of carries and big numbers. Ohio St. and Michigan will be challenges, but the rest are mediocre defenses.
40. Caleb King, Georgia- Much like at Wisconsin, UGa generally finds a #1 back and gives him the ball a lot (Garrison Hearst, Herschel Walker, Knowshon Moreno). King should be a star and he has a good set of WRs and a strong returning OL to help him. Breaking in a new QB will get him lots of carries. Florida, LSU and South Carolina will be a challenge, along with GA Tech.
41. Josh Adams, Wake Forest- Very risky pick because WF's offense is quite erratic and hasn't established a standout RB for awhile, but he has great potential. Semi-tough ACC division, but Stanford, Elon and Navy will be opportunities for huge numbers.
42. Cam Montgomery, North Texas- Cam was the lone bright spot for NT last season besides do-it-all WR Casey Fitzgerald, and assuming Riley Dodge steps in at QB, he will be relied on to eat clock. He has all-world potential. He will do well in the Sun Belt and should do fine against Ohio or Ball St. and possibly Army too. Minor risk, but huge reward potential.
43. Jeremy Avery, Boise St.- Ian Johnson never separated himself from Avery last year and now all by himself, Avery has 1,500-2,000 yard rushing/receiving combined potential. He plays in a high-powered offense, so he will have a ton of opportunities. Oregon is tough, but everything else is a cakewalk.
44. Darius Marshall, Marshall- Good pick mostly for his consistency and ability to establish himself as the primary ball-carrier. Only if his QB improves will he get more TDs and receptions. VA Tech, WV, Southern Miss and East Carolina will be tough games, but the rest are shaky.
45. Ryan Matthews (or Anthony Harding), Fresno St.-Whoever gets the job will get a lot of yards, but in years past, Fresno has split carries when they have a talented backfield (ala Ron Rivers, Lorenzo Neal and Anthony Daigle in 1991-92). That means the TDs and yards will be split, so whoever wins the job should be just a supporting cast player.
46. Mark Ingram, Alabama- VA Tech and LSU will be difficult games, but the rest are horrific, including North Texas, Florida International and Chattanooga. I think he's ready to be the main man and contribute 1,000 yards and 10 TDs. Lost some good O-lineman, which may hurt.
47. Dan Herron, Ohio St.- Another school where the main RB gets the bulk of the carries and with his hype, big things are expected of Herron this year. He could lose the job to Brandon Saine, but whoever wins the job will lose some TDs to QB Terrelle Pryor near the redzone. USC, Penn St. and Michigan will be tests, but the rest of the schedule, nah.
48. Ben Tate or Mario Fannin, Auburn- Whichever one wins the starting job should be quite productive. I like both of these players, Fannin for his all-around abilities and speed, Tate for his power and durability. LSU, Alabama and WV will provide some resistance on the ground, but the Tigers will get their yards like they do every season, especially against the weaklings.
49. Mikell Simpson, Virginia- Huge sleeper pick. His numbers should definitely be up without Peerman and QB Jameel Sewell being reinstated at QB. I think he's quite versatile and could catch a lot of passes, especially without any proven WRs around. TCU, Southern Miss, BC, and GA Tech will be difficult to get past, but luckily, VA Tech comes after the fantasy season, so that won't hurt you if you draft him.
50. Deonte Jackson, Idaho- The Vandals' offense may be lacking quite a bit, but when you're the only real star or threat, you can have great numbers, which I expect Jackson to have this season. NIU, Washington and Colorado St. aren't the scariest of non-conference defenses and I believe Jackson will get a lot of carries for 1,000 yards easy. The key is getting more TDs.

Honorable Mentions: Darius Willis, Indiana, Stephen Simmons, Northwestern, Cordera Eason, Ole Miss, Bryce Brown, Tennessee, Jewel Hampton, Iowa, Anthony Dixon, Mississippi St., Joseph Turner, TCU, Atiyyah Henderson, San Diego St., Jamad Williams, Tulsa, whoever the FB is at Army, Terrence Blevins, EMU, Frank Goodin, ULM

Enjoy the season, good luck on your picks, unless you're in my league.

Saturday, June 27, 2009

Top 30 Fantasy QB

Ok, since fantasy college football was arguably one of the greatest things ever last season, I am yet again joining a few leagues (God knows how many). Anyways, to help me grasp who I should be drafting and so I can have a nifty cheat-sheet, I'm doing a top listing of the most important positions. Let's start with the most important one of all, quarterback. It's important to remember that this list isn't about who is the most talented QB in the country, but who will put up the best numbers based on returning starters that will help him and difficulty of schedule.

1. Case Keenum, Houston- Considering the conference and how many weapons he has returning, Keenum should easily top 5,000 total yards this season. His only really tough games should be at Mississippi St., Oklahoma St. and home games with Texas Tech and Southern Miss. BYEs: Sep. 19
2. Colt McCoy, Texas- With Jordan Shipley and plenty of good returning receivers, McCoy should again throw for plenty of yards and TDs. Also, with no proven RB, he will run for good numbers yet again. The schedule is pretty easy. BYEs: Oct. 3
3. Tim Tebow, Florida- Tebow's running numbers may be down with plenty of good RBs surrounding him, but he has good, speedy WRs and a fantastic TE. A road game with LSU will be tough, but the non-conference is easy. BYEs: Oct. 3
4. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma- It will almost be impossible for him to match last season's stats. but with Ryan Broyles and TE Gresham back, he should be good once again. BYU and at Miami should be tough, but he'll pull through. BYE: Sep. 26
5. Taylor Potts, Texas Tech- Ok he hasn't proven himself yet, but the TT QB almost always puts up 4,000 yards and plenty of TDs. OK, OK St. and TX will be tough, but the non-conference is relatively easy. Has good WRs to help him out. BYE: Nov. 7
6. Zac Robinson, Oklahoma St.- Thanks to WR Dez Bryant and a good cast of RBs around him, Robinson will be quite prolific yet again. He loses a great TE, but his rushing numbers should help make up for it. UGA is the only tough non-conf D. BYE: Oct. 3
7. Colin Kaepernick, Nevada- This is the real sleeper of the draft. His outstanding rushing/passing numbers should go well beyond 3,500 yards. Notre Dame and Missouri are the only real defensive tests beside Boise St. of course. BYE: Sept. 12
8. Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan- With most of his fantastic receiving corps returning, Lefevour should throw for well beyond 3,000 yards and have his good usual running numbers. He plays Arizona, Michigan St. and BC which should be tough defensive tests. BYE: Nov. 7
9. Juice Williams, Illinois- Yet another hidden gem in the draft. Williams has established he can throw for plenty of yards and his lots of weapons around him, but needs to cut down on his INTs. Penn St., Ohio St. and Missouri should be challenges, but with his running ability, he'll be ok. BYE: Sep. 19 and Nov. 21
10. Todd Reesing, Kansas- Reesing is a fantastic passer who should have incredible numbers for the third straight season with almost all of his weapons back. 4,000 yards is within reach and he can run for good numbers as well. Southern Miss, Oklahoma and at Texas will be tough but he will still be a great pick anywhere. BYE: Oct. 3
11. Robert Griffin, Baylor- This is a real risk here and he has plenty of good WRs, but he is in a very tough conference. If he can improve his passing numbers and keep the rushing numbers the same, he will be a steal. BYE: Sep. 12
12. Jevan Snead, Ole Miss- Snead should throw for plenty of yards with most of his WRs returning and a good set of RBs supporting him. He also can run, but hasn't been asked to a lot. Alabama, LSU and Auburn will be tough defensive tests. BYE: Sep. 12
13. Jeremiah Masoli, Oregon- Considering how much CBS sports gives out for rushing stats and TDs, Masoli is a player with incredible value. He should get 700 yards at least, if not a 1,000 and will have plenty of TDs running/passing. USC, UCLA and Boise St. will be tough and Utah is not as daunting as last year. BYE: Oct. 17, Nov. 28
14. Trevor Vittatoe, UTEP- Thanks to an outstanding receiving duo in Kris Adams and Jeff Moturi, this player should have incredible stats yet again. Kansas and at Texas are the only real tough tests since C-USA West is not defensive driven. BYE: Oct. 17
15. Bo Levi Mitchell, SMU- (NOTE, Big Risk) I think Mitchell will have plenty of yards, but will his TD-to-INT ratio improve enough to be worth the gamble? Has two incredible receivers in Aldrick Robinson and Emmanuel Sanders. TCU and East Carolina will be tough tests, especially back-to-back. BYE: Sep. 26
16. Kellen Moore, Boise St.- Austin Pettis is a great receiver and with no feature RB to hog up the yards, Moore should be in for a big season. Oregon will be a tough test but the other games should be relatively easy. BYE: Oct. 10
17. Tim Hiller, Western Michigan- He has to play at Michigan and Michigan St., but a road trip to Indiana may not be a fantasy disaster. Juan Nunez is a great go-to WR and his RBs can receive quite well so he will be productive yet again. BYE: Nov. 28
18. Adam Weber, Minnesota- With Eric Decker a potential All-American and newcomer Hayo Carpenter's blistering speed, Weber will surpass 3,000 yards easy and probably get 20-25 TDs. Syracuse, Air Force and Cal aren't very intimidating non-conference foes. BYE: Nov. 28
19. Jacob Bower, Tulsa- He will not put up the numbers David Johnson did in '08, but with Charles Clay (FB), Demaris Johnson, Slick Shelley and Trae Johnson, he could have incredible numbers. It depends on how much the running game produces and how many TDs that takes away. Oklahoma and Boise St. will be tough, but nothing else really, Southern Miss maybe. BYE: Oct. 10
20. Jerrod Johnson, Texas A&M- Johnson has an underrated group of WRs and TE Jamie McCoy to work with, so his numbers should only increase immensely. His non-conference schedule is a dream and Iowa St., Colorado and Kansas St. is easy for Big 12 north. BYE: Sep. 12
21. Russell Wilson, N.C. State- There are no standout WRs to throw to and he could have the Colt McCoy "sophomore slump" syndrome, so beware. South Carolina and Pitt will be tough out of conference and all the in-conference road games are brutal. BYE: Oct. 24
22. USC QB- It's just a fact, they always do well and whoever steps in this season will have an incredible supporting cast.
23. Matt Scott, Arizona- (Another BIG Risk) Scott doesn't have any experience, but the receivers are fantastic, as is TE Rob Gronkowski. There's a tricky game at Iowa early in the season and road games to Cal and USC will not be easy for a new starter. BYE: Oct. 3 and 31
24. Tony Pike, Cincinnati- I don't like him facing Oregon St., Fresno St. or Illinois out of conference, but he should be involved in a lot of shootouts with no defense to support him. He does have some great WRs to bail him out though. Oct. 10 and Nov. 21
25. Ryan Lindley, San Diego St.- UCLA and Utah may be some tough games, but most of the tougher conference foes are at home so Lindley should be great with more experience. Almost all of his WRs are back and the non-conference is pitiful, so I expect a lot here. BYE: Oct. 10
26. Ryan Mallett, Arkansas- (Huge Risk) He gets every WR and outstanding TE DJ Williams back so if he grasps the offense quickly, the Hogs will be explosive. Road games at Florida, Alabama, and LSU will not be easy, but he should produce against everybody else. BYE: Sep. 12
27. Austin Davis, Southern Miss- Assuming DeAndre Brown is recovered from his horrific injury, Davis should be a fine dual-threat player, assuming he gets the same amount of TDs on the ground in 2009 he got in '08. Road games to Kansas and a home date with Virginia won't be pushovers, and he does play in a decent division, but he will only improve as he gets more reps. BYE: Nov. 7
28. Joe Webb, UAB- This is another slightly risky pick, but on the bright side, he's almost all the Blazers have. It will be tough to match last year's 1,000 yard rushing effort, but with all his WRs back, including the explosive Frantrell Forrest, he should soar as a senior. BYE: Oct. 10
29. Greg Alexander, Hawaii- The Warriors always produce good numbers through the air, and with Alexander finally having the job to himself, he should be more confident and put up big numbers. Having Greg Salas, Malcolm Lane, Daniel Lofton and others returning doesn't hurt matters either. BYE: Sep. 26
30. Rusty Smith, Florida Atlantic- With almost all of his WRs back, including big-play TE Jason Harmon who missed 2008, Smith will again top 3,000 yards and maybe surpass 25-30 TDs. He has Nebraska and South Carolina, which won't be easy games or produce big numbers, but the rest of the schedule isn't very challenging defensively. Beware, sometimes CBS doesn't count Sun Belt games stats, it all depends. BYE: Sep 12 and Oct. 10
Honorable Mention: Riley Dodge, North Texas, Andy Schmitt, Eastern Michigan, Tyler Sheehan, Bowling Green, Casey Clausen, Notre Dame, Arkelon Hall, Memphis, Matt Grothe, USF

On a lighter note, beware of taking any Big Ten QBs not noted in the above list. Darryl Clark and Terrelle Pryor are good enough players, even Mike Kafka has potential at Northwestern, but really, the offenses have stayed ground-oriented for the most part even up until today. The SEC is also dangerous because of the outstanding defense that is played by each team week in, week out. The Sun Belt has potential for some QBs, but often-times CBS sports doesn't count a few of their games each season. Also, if your guy plays Tuesday or Wednesday, the game won't count either. Good luck.

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Big East Preview

This used to be a power conference back when Louisville, West Virginia and Rutgers, to a point, were consistently being ranked in the top 10 and winning BCS games. Most recently, the likes of UConn, South Florida and Cincinnati have become much better teams, consistently making bowls and presenting a real challenge to the conference's elite. Let's get to it.

Cincinnati- Ok, I've been subscribing and buying college football annuals since 1992 and never can I remember a defense returning just one starter like Cincinnati does this year. Safe to say, the defense will not be good, even though Aaron Webster is a fine SS and DL Curtis Young and John Hughes could be decent pass rushers. Andre Revels is also a fine LB, but with no experience in a 4-man LB set, things don't look good. On offense, this may have been the Big East's best if the NCAA had accepted Vidal Hazelton's request to play in 2009. However, the Bearcats will still be very good thanks to QB Tony Pike and a slew of talented receivers. Mardy Gilyard and Marcus Barnett should be great again this season and former QB, now TE, Ben Guidugli, will only get better with experience. John Goebel, Jacob Ramsey and Isaiah Pead should make a good three-headed combo at RB, but I don't expect big numbers from them as a whole. With the defense the way it is, I don't like Cincinnati's chances at Oregon St. or against Illinois and Fresno St. at home. They will be lucky to come away 4-1 or even 3-2 in non-conference. Facing West Virginia at home and road trips to USF, Rutgers and Pitt will be tough tests. I think 6-7 wins is the high-mater wark for this club, but 8 is not out of reach.

Connecticut- I still can't believe this team won 8 games last season because no one could figure out the four basic plays the offense ran all season; Donald Brown left, Donald Brown right, Donald Brown up the middle, and a horribly thrown play action pass by former QB Tyler Lorenzen. Now, without Brown, this is a mediocre team at best. Jordan Todman won't be able to carry half the load Brown did, while whoever steps in at QB will have an awful receiving corps, except for Michael Smith. DE Lindsey Witten was a nice pass rusher in limited action and DT Twyon Martin will be a nice contributor as well. The LBs are outstanding with Scott Lutrus, Greg Lloyd, and Lawrence Wilson leading the way. At the secondary positions the Huskies are all set with ball-hawking safeties Aaron Bagsby and Robert Vaughn completing fantastic cover corners Jasper Howard and Robert McClain. The defense is what ultimately carried the Huskies last year (as did Brown) and UConn must rely on that again in 2009. I see the schedule as being a problem with UNC and road games atBaylor and Notre dame. Even traveling to Ohio is tricky as the Bobcats upset Pitt a few years ago on national TV. I see a 2-3 non-conference outcome and then a brutal conference slate. I guess Syracuse is winnable, maybe Louisville. Four wins is my max give here, five if they catch EVERY break imaginable. This team will be awful offensively and I hope I don't have to watch them on TV this season a lot.

Louisville- Assuming transfer Justin Burke is the answer at QB, Louisville will be on the rise. Burke should be ok thanks to standout WR Doug Beaumont and his supporting cast of speedy Trent Guy, reliable Scott Long and huge (6'8) Josh Chichester. Not to mention having good receivers, Burke will inherit Victor Anderson, only a sophomore, who is a bulldozer and should be good for 250-300 carries and 1500 yards easy. It doesn't hurt to have three good starters back on the OL as well. On defense, Jon Dempsey and Antwon Canady were good, but not great at LB, and the DL is not going to fare well with just one returning starter. The DL was bad enough last year at rushing the passer, so any bit of regression will cost them a few wins. Johnny Patrick and Daniel Covington are good DBs, and if JUCO newcomer Preston Pace, who has blistering speed, is a quick learner, the secondary will be outstanding and help a very underwhelming defense overall. If the Cardinals can take two out of three going to Utah and Kentucky and at home against Southern Miss, then a bowl game should be within reach. It won't be easy however. Syracuse and Rutgers are manageable home games while going to UConn will decide who truly belongs in the lower-half. I'll say five wins, with six and a bowl game being realistic.

Pittsburgh- It will be tough for the Panthers to replace LaSean McCoy and his contributions at TB, but they have a host of options, including newcomers Dion Lewis and Ray Graham. They both have good speed and should be a nice 50/50 tandem. Whoever starts and however the carries are divided, the running game will benefit from having four starters back on the O-line. Coach Wannstedt better hope the running game comes together because the passing game is not very stable. Bill Stull is a reliable signal-caller, but throws too many INTs. Oderick Turner and Jonathan Baldwin are stable receiving threats, but nothing spectacular. Pitt should be solid again on defense, especially with DEs Greg Romeus and Jabaal Sheard returning, who could easily improve on the 13 combined sacks they had in 2008. Mick Williams is also fine at DT, but only LB Greg Williams is a standout and unless the other two starters come along, the LBs will be a glaring weakness. Aaron Berry is an outstanding CB and SS Dom DeCicco is an overachiever, which could make for a decent secondary. Pitt has a very interesting non-conference schedule because they play Navy, which is always a tough game, and a road tilt with NC State will be very difficult. A home game with Notre Dame will be another tough test, but one they could easily pass. In conference they get USF and Cincinnati at home, which will be quite beneficial, but a road game with rival West Virginia will make or break their chances at winning the Big East. I'll call for eight wins at least and could easily see them getting up to nine or ten.

Rutgers- The Scarlet Knights have a good stable of RBs, including Kordell Young and Jourdan Brooks, who will benefit quite nicely from 4 returning starters on the O-line. Tim Brown is a fine WR, but he will hurt by the loss of Tiquan Underwood and Kenny Brittt, two outstanding playmakers. Shamar Graves may help him out at TE, but I don't think the QB position will be very stable. Unless the Knights lean on the ground game or a new QB develops out of thin air, the offense will struggle mightily. On defense, Alex Silvestro and George Johnson are fine DEs, but really need to up their productivity. The LBs will be a strong group if Michigan transfer Marcus Witherspoon can contribute right away because Ryan D'Imperio is a solid player, as is Manny Abreu, who has loads of potential. The secondary will have to gel right away because although Devin McCourty is an ok cover corner, he will need help from David Rowe and returning safety Joe Lefeged. The non-conference schedule is pitiful as they will be playing two Div I-AA opponents in Howard and Texas Southern. They also get a sure win against FIU and trips to Maryland and Army which won't be too tough, but the Terps always have upset potential. I think every conference home game is 50/50 because WV and USF are among the elite, while Cincinnati and Pitt could be very good yet again. The only trick in-conference road game is Louisville. I'll call for somewhere between six and eight wins unless a new QB develops immediately. Seven wins sounds just about right.

South Florida- The Bulls success or failure on offense really depends on two important areas; first is whether or not Matt Grothe can improve on an 18-to-14 TD-to-INT ratio from 2008. Second, can Mike Ford finally become the feature back he was destined to be. Ford has all the size, speed and talent, but can never stay healthy enough to be relied upon full-time. I think Carlton Mitchell, Jessie Hester and AJ Love could make up the best receiving corps in the Big East if they play up to their potential. The OL will be a major weakness with just one returning starter so Grothe will have to scramble a lot again this season. Grothe could even become USF's all-time leading rusher as he just needs 647 yards (he had 591 in 2008). If DE George Selvie can become a dominant pass rusher again, the defense will benefit greatly. Terrell McClain is a fine DT and he, along with the rest of the defensive line, should put up good numbers next to Selvie who will be double-teamed a lot. Kion Wilson is a dependable LB, but this unit as a whole needs to produce on a more consistent basis. Jerome Murphy could be a stud at CB, but he needs Quenton Washington to step up his game, especially in a conference where a lot of teams have more than one talented WR. The safety position will be ok as I think Jerrell Young, who put up good numbers in limited action last season, will be a solid starter. USF could start 4-0 if they can beat Florida St. on the road and then the conference schedule starts off with a bang against Syracuse on the road, which could be tricky. Luckily, the Bulls get Cincinnati, Louisville and WV at home and a road game with Pitt is in late October, which means it won't be too cold and the Bulls have a decent shot at getting the road win. I still don't see the Bulls winning the Big East, but I certainly don't see why eight or nine wins is out of the question.

Syracuse- Hey, it's the owners of the stupidest move of the decade; Syracuse went from those beloved Orange helmets, which were as classic as Penn St. and Notre Dame and those hideous letters have caused them nothing but trouble since. They have gone 10-37 since the helmet change, need I say more? If Phil Steele is correct, I don't like the idea of replacing Cameron Dantley at QB, who despite his poor completion percentage had a good TD-to-INT ratio. I think Delone Carter will be a fantastic RB if he gets the same amount of carries as Curtis Brinkley got last season. Donte Davis and Lavar Lobdell aren't outstanding receivers, but Mike Williams is a budding superstar and should be fine after being suspended in 2008. Arthur Jones is a fantastic DT and can only get better, but the rest of the DL needs help as they have limited experience. The LBs are solid with Derrell Smith and Mike Mele, but they will have to improve if the Orange are going to get more than their 3 wins last year. The secondary is just as bad as the rest of the defense with Mike Holmes being a glimmer of hope. Facing Penn St. on the road and Minnesota, Northwestern and Akron is not a beneficial non-conference schedule. I think the Zips could even pull off an upset here, much like they almost did in 2008. The in-conference schedule is even more brutal as they get possibly the 3 best teams (WV, Cincy and USF) all at home. They better pull off a few upsets to get past the three wins I'm predicting (and that's being generous).

West Virginia- Everyone seems to be down on the Mountaineers because they lose Pat White, one of the best starting QBs in recent memory. However, many people seem to forget they have Jarrett Brown back, who has been more than a capable fill-in whenever White got hurt (which was frequently). Brown has decent speed, although not as fast as White, and is a very accurate passer. Noel Devine should be outstanding yet again as a feature back, while newcomer Tavis Austin could produce big things, much like the last superstar from Dunbar HS, Arrelious Benn who went to Illinois. Jock Sanders is a versatile slot receiver/running back who could go well over 1,500 yards all-purpose with the right amount of carries and balls thrown his way. Alric Arnett and Bradley Starks are very capable WRs, while Wes Lyons at 6'8" should be used much more effectively. The OL will be hurting with just one starter back, but with this offensive scheme, they should still be able to come together quickly. While not outstanding, I think DL Scooter Berry and Chris Neild could be big-time players with more experience. JT Thomas and Reed Williams are also solid LBs in the 3-3-5 scheme which has worked quite well for the Mountaineers over the last few seasons. Sidney Glover is also a fine safety and Brandon Hogan is a fabulous cover corner who should be effective again this year. Franchot Allen is asked to do multiple things from his DB spot and will be quite a standout with more playing time (starts). Back-to-back games with East Carolina at home and Auburn on the road will be pivotal tests for this team who hasn't played a lot of games together on both sides of the ball. I think they will get revenge in a big way against Colorado at home and Marshall is a sure-fire win. The only real tests in conference will be at Cincinnati and USF, while the "Backyard Brawl" with Pitt usually determines whether they win the Big East or not. While the non-conference schedule looks like it plays out nicely, this club always makes one or two mistakes in big games they should win. I'll call for 9 wins and a Big East title, with 10-11 being an outside chance, only if Brown is better than advertised (he has major DJ Shockley potential).

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

MWC Preview

Air Force- The Falcons really overachieved last year considering QB Tim Jefferson started as a freshman (plebe) for most of the season. While they do lose one good RB, TBs Asher Clark and Kyle Lumpkin, FB Jared Tew and WB Kyle Halderman all return as dangerous running threats. Halderman is also a good receiving threat , and if WR Josh Cousins can maintain his productivity, this will be a very dangerous offense. Jefferson should only improve as a passer, and with 3 OL returning, his numbers should only get better as he gains experience. On defense the Falcons return three outstanding starters in the secondary and Reggie Rembert and Anthony Wright could have big seasons against a conference that has many teams with question marks regarding their respective passing games. Ken Lamendola is a stud at LB, and Patrick Hennessey and Andre Morris could be productive, but the key will be how well the DL rushes the passer. Ben Garland and Andre Morris are fine DL, but there needs to be some urgency because a soft schedule could mean lots of wins. While Army and Navy are never easy wins for the Falcons, I think a road trip to Minnesota is the only thing stands in the way of a perfect 4-0 non-conference schedule. TCU is a winnable game at home, but road trips to BYU and Utah are going to be tough, but one for two seems realistic. I'll call for 7 wins at least, but 8 seems a possibility.

BYU- First off, the Cougars have a great QB but need a lot of help at WR and if they don't start Andrew George at one WR spot, then they deserve to struggle. Dennis Pitta is already an All-American caliber TE, so no need for George there. Also, with George's size, he's better than any of the three prospects ahead of him. Luke Ashworth and O'Neill Chambers are solid players, but McKay Jacobson will really have to prove himself. The bad news for BYU is they lose a ton of starters on the O-line, which could hurt Harvey Unga unless they gel right away. The Cougars return all of their starters on the DL, but unfortunately, only DE Jan Jorgensen is a standout player. Matt Bauman and Coleby Clawson are good LBs, but they will need some help from returning starter Shawn Doman who made a lot of tackles but no real big plays. Scott Johnson is a decent safety, but unless JUCO transfer Brian Logan or Brandon Howard plays well, the secondary will be a major weakness. An early trip to the Lone Star State will be a painful one for the Cougars against Oklahoma, but a home game with Florida St. is winnable and thus, a 3-1 non-conference record is plausible. A road game to UNLV won't be easy, but home games against the other elite teams in the conference, TCU, Utah and Air Force give the Cougars a good shot at winning the conference. A 9 or 10 win season is not out of reach.

Colorado St.- This is going to be an interesting season for the Rams; on the one hand, they have a great OL with no experienced RBs to benefit and two outstanding WRs with no dependable QB to get them the ball. Go figure. Rashaun Greer and Dion Morton are great at going deep or being posession receivers, while Klay Kubiak should be the starting QB because of his familiarity with the offense, but it looks like Grant Stucker will win the job. Stucker apparently has the inside track on the job because of his dual-threat ability, but for the long-term goal, Kubiak should get the go-ahead. However, a senior-laden offense has potential, but that's with a capital "p," no guarantees. The defense might be ok thanks to CBs Nick Oppenneer and Gerard Thomas, but after that, there is very little to work with. Mychal Sisson is an outstanding LB but he loses Ricky Brewer to help him out and the DL is awful. There is no pass-rushing threat and its stunning that this defense got them to a bowl and a win. Even though I am down on rival Colorado, it is always a winnable game, as is Idaho and Weber St., but after that, only three conference games look winnable. Five or six wins seems like an outside shot, and with the down-trodden teams getting better, I'll call for 4 wins, 5 if they get lucky. There's no Gartrell Johnson to bail this team out, unless a star QB emerges out of nowhere.

New Mexico- Well, the Lobos have potential if QB Donovan Porterie can finally put everything together. However, his success depends on the OC (Mike Locksley) allowing him to throw the ball downfield, which he should, especially with Chris Hernandez and Bryant Williams being talented receivers. Rodney Ferguson is a huge loss at TB, but James Wright has the size to fill in nicely. However, he will be pushed by newcomer Desmond Dennis and speedster Terence Brown. The Lobos defense will be fine if the DL can come together with their fine amount of depth. Clint McPeek is a great LB, capable of plugging the hole and chasing down tacklers on the edge, while also being a pass coverage nuisance. If Carmen Messina can produce as a starter like he did in spot action in 2008, this unit will be a strength. The secondary will be a weakness with the loss of both CBs, but Frankie Solomon and Ian Clark are good safeties who should help out enough to keep them from getting burned deep too often. The Lobos should be able to take care of rival New Mexico St., but they better find another win in their non-conference schedule to have any shot at a bowl. I think Texas A&M is a solid candidate for that win, but isn't very likely. I think with road games at San Diego St. and Wyoming, their two most winnable conference games, this looks like a three or four win team if they catch a few breaks.

San Diego St.- It's funny how the Aztecs used to be the most powerful team in the old WAC conference with BYU and others, but now they are struggling to get to their first bowl since 1998. The Aztecs decline wasn't because of any drop in talent in CA, but inept coaching. However, I think 2009 could be the year they turn things around thanks to the talents of do-it-all TB Attiyah Henderson and precocious sophomore QB Ryan Lindley. Lindley has plenty of WRs to throw to, including standout Vicente Brown, but one of the four main targets he has returning needs to become a viable deep threat. The OL returns plenty of experience and I think if Henderson gets enough carries, 2,000 all-purpose yards is well within his reach (1,500 rushing, 500 receiving). On defense, DEs Jonathan Soto and BJ Williams are solid foundations to begin building around, as is the LB corps where the strength is in numbers, not necessarily individual stars. I hope senior Aaron Moore is up to the task of leading the secondary because if he's not, this will be a glaring weakness. Assuming the Aztecs can go to Idaho and win and beat New Mexico St., a 3-1 non-conference record is a good start to the first month of the season. New Mexico and Wyoming aren't the toughest of tests at home and they travel to Colorado St. and UNLV, where a split there and a clean sweep of NM and WY could provide them the opportunity to go bowling. I'm calling for a realistic shot at a bowl bid and 6 wins.

TCU- Well, the Horned Frogs are set on offense despite having a depleted OL. Andy Dalton is a fine QB who can run when necessary and he has a very explosive receiver in Jimmy Young. Assuming versatile Ryan Christian (TB) and WR Bart Johnson can continue to be dependable receiving threats, Dalton's numbers will only improve. Joseph Turner is an outstanding returning TB while Jeremy Kerley is a player who can do lots of things on offense, much like Christian. On defense, TCU had an amazing 2008, but with the return of just 4 starters, those numbers will be hard to duplicate. DE Jerry Hughes is a phenomenal talent, certainly an All-American candidate, but with not a lot of depth returning on the DL, he will have to carry the load. Rafael Priest and Nick Sanders are very capable CBs, along with FS Tejay Johnson, but the strength of the unit will depend on former QB Marcus Jackson's conversion to strong safety. Road trips to Virginia and Clemson will be tough and if the Horned Frogs play well enough, they could go 2-0, but at the same time, going o-for is just as likely. A rivalry game with SMU is no gimme either, while road trips to Air Force and BYU will be tough to overcome if they want to win the conference. I will call for 7-8 wins with 9 being optimistic.

UNLV- The Rebels will go only as far as QB Omar Clayton can take them, which may not be very far. While Clayton doesn't make many mistakes or throw a lot of INTs, he has looked horrible on the road, not counting the win against Arizona St. last season, but the Sun Devils were far overrated anyways. Ryan Wolfe will be Clayton's main target, but his supporting cast, most notably Phillip Payne and Rodelin Anthony, could put up huge numbers with more emphasis put on the passing game. That emphasis may be necessary with the loss of Frank Summers. Summers was a tank who made the big plays and hopefully for UNLV his replacement, CJ Cox, will evolve into that type of player. Cox's evolution will be necessary since incoming freshman Bradley Randle may not have the speed to be an everyday back. The Rebels do have seven returning starters on defense, but considering they allowed over 40 points six times, that may not be a good thing. The DL is experienced, but will have to improve behind the likes of DE Isaako Aaitui and DT Malo Taumua. Jason Beauchamp and Ronnie Paulo are outstanding LBs that will have to play beyond their potential to compensate for the lack of talent in the secondary. The Rebels better hope for a split against Oregon St. and Hawaii at home because a road trip to rival Nevada is an almost certain loss. The conference schedule won't be easy with Utah and BYU coming to town, while a trip to Wyoming and a home game with San Diego St will be make-it-or-break it encounters. I'll call for three wins, four at best.

Utah- Hopefully the Utes enjoyed last season's undefeated season and incredible run to a BCS bid because 2009 will be a rude awakening. Unless Corbin Louks or Terrance Cain assumes the starting role and doesn't split time with the other, this offense will find it hard to click. Louks is a great runner who's never gotten the chance to prove what he can do throwing the ball, so it's really a toss-up for now. Cain should have the edge with his good speed for a QB and coming from a proven JUCO powerhouse, Blinn, in TX. Whoever gets the job will need to get the ball to WRs David Reed and Jerome Brooks who have plenty of potential. The TE position has often been an integral part of the Utes' offense, so Chris Joppru better emerge as a weapon right away. Matt Asiata will be a fine TB, but he needs someone to help him carry the load because they have an experienced OL and could be just as productive on the ground this year as in 2008. Koa Misi is a good DE who better hope his teammates on the DL can produce because if not, he will have too much of a burden to carry. All of the LBs, including Rover Stevenson Sylvester are good at playing both the run and pass and should help a defense that loses both DTs and CBs get throug the rough patches. Whichever players start at CB will be thankful they have Joe Dale and Robert Johnson playing at the safety spots where they were outstanding last season. While the Utes could go 3-1 in their non-conference schedule, home games with Utah St. and Louisville and a road trip to San Jose St. will not be easy. Home games with Air Force and San Diego St. will be the only standing in the Utes way of an upper-division finish because road trips to TCU and BYU are definite losses. I'm calling for seven or eight wins, with an outside shot at nine if they can survive the non-conference slate with just one loss.

Wyoming- If the Cowboys want a proven signal-caller, then Karsten Sween is the way to go, despite a horrific season last year. However, if they want to gamble and find a QB who can run new head coach Dave Christensen's spread offense that was used at Missouri, then Robert Benjamin should start right away. There's no danger in starting the athletic QB against Weber St. and they could pull an upset at Colorado if he has grasped the offense in time. Sadly, the QB position is quite stable compared to the RB position where Darius Terry seems to have won the job by default. Terry does have good speed, but he needs another back to help him out if they are to match the Moore/Seldon combo from last season. The good news for the starting QB, whoever it may be, is that WRs Greg Bolling, David Leonard and Brandon Stewart all have plenty of talent and size while TE Jesson Salyards only adds to the depth of receivers to throw to. On defense, John Fletcher is a good DE and has DT/NG Fred Givens back starting which should help the pass rush (all 3 starters return on the DL as well). Gabe Knapton and Weston Johnson are productive LBs who will have to have outstanding seasons for the Cowboys to have a shot at a bowl game. Tashaun and Marcell Gipson are good CBs and with Chris Prosinski a ball-hawking FS, the secondary could be a relative strength. The defense should put up good numbers, much like it did last season. Winning at Colorado and Florida Atlantic will be important if the Cowboys want to make a bowl push. The same can be said for road games at Colorado St. and San Diego St., which are also winnable. New Mexico and UNLV could be wins at home, but it all depends on the QB. I want to call for 6-7 wins and a bowl game, which is possible, but 4 or 5 is more realistic.

Ok, the Big East is next. I'm off to watch my Yankees and Texas try and win the College World Series against LSU. Take care peeps.

Monday, June 22, 2009

Div I-A Independents

Well this isn't a very big conference, or even a conference at all for that matter. All of these teams have a long history of playing one another, but Army skips Notre Dame once again this year. Ok, let's just get to the teams shall we...

Army- The Black Knights (Cadets, whatever) have an interesting situation on their hands when it comes to the offense; first off, they have two good returning QBs and a productive WR who might play mostly at slotback. Jameson Carter, the leading receiver from last year returns and could have 1,000 yard potential as a combined runner/receiver at SB. His speed will surely open up holes on the inside for the new FB who has the tough task of replacing Collin Mooney. Patrick Mealy and Ian Smith also return at SB and if the Knights can focus on not just using their FB, this team could put up numbers on the ground similar to the Cadets of Bob Sutton in the 90s. At WR, Carter and Damion Hunter could also do big things, but converted OT Ali Villanueva is a prospect who must mature quickly if he is to be used effectively. The OL will suffer thanks to heavy losses, but on defense, seven returning starters ensures at least modest efficiency. On the DL, Joshua McNary and Victor Ugenyi should improve upon last year's impressive numbers while any support from the rest of their fellow D-lineman could make for a strong pass rush. Stephen Anderson is a stud at LB, but the secondary is the strongest section of this defense. At CB, Jordan Trimble and Mario Hill did not have impressive numbers in terms of INTs, but that's because the number of high-octane passing attacks they faced was limited. At safety, Donovan Travis is a solid performer who should benefit from the line's effective pass rush. The schedule is not too hard, but six or seven wins is a big step for a team that had just three wins in 2008. Four wins seems to be most realistic, but they could surprise some teams.

Navy- Who knows if the Midshipmen will be able to replace SB Shun White or FB Eric Kettani, but assuming they can, since they always do, Navy will once again have a fine running attack to help them through a rough schedule. Ricky Dobbs should slide in nicely at QB, but he has no real threats offensively, including Mario Washington, a short WR who will have his work cut out for him. The SBs will be very hit-or-miss, but Bobby Doyle showed some potential in very limited action. The DL is very experienced and could produce some big numbers, but the pass rush will have to improve immensely for the defense to hang tough against the likes of Pitt (road), Air Force, SMU (road), Wake Forest, Notre Dame (road) and even Hawaii (road). Now, none of those teams are big-time offenses, but they have plenty of potential to blow out the Midshipmen if things go wrong early. Ram Vela may actually be Navy's best pass-rusher at LB but the secondary is in danger because the only position with any real depth is FS where Wyatt Middleton and Emmett Merchant patrol. Blake Carter has potential at CB and Kevin Edwards, with his good speed and great size (6'2" for a CB), could provide just enough coverage ability between the two of them. I really don't see Navy getting past four or five wins with a tough schedule, but they have been known to replace good RBs when they depart without harm. However, Temple, Air Force, and road games with Rice and SMU should ultimately determine their bowl eligibility.

Notre Dame- The Irish are a puzzling bunch. QB Jimmy Clausen is a promising player who showed a lot of potential last year, but he needs to cut down on his INTs big time. The RB situation is fine, but between Armando Allen, Robert Hughes and James Aldridge, one of them needs to emerge as the feature back. The ideal would be have two very productive TBs, much like the late 80s and early 90s during their heyday under Lou Holtz. Golden Tate and Michael Floyd are outstanding WRs, but that may just be because of Clausen's accuracy because Tate disappeared during a few games last season (Stanford, Navy, Washington and USC). Kyle Rudolph is also a productive TE and should improve upon '08s numbers. The OL is also outstanding, which could help one of the three RBs have their breakout season. The defense should be ok despite losing almost half of their starters, and ironically, the best defensive lineman is DT Ethan Johnson, who only had limited playing time. Brian Smith is a fine LB, but the key player to watch will be true freshman Manti Te'o, who is expected to be the next big thing. The secondary should do well with a lot of depth returning, but that's only if Darrin Walls steps into his CB role and produces right away. If not, I would hope Charlie Weis has the good sense to move Robert Blanton to starter. The schedule is pretty favorable, mostly because the Irish keep traditional rivals on their schedule who regularly have far less talent on their respective rosters (Michigan St., Purdue, Navy, Stanford). A home game with Nevada to open the season shouldn't be taken as an easy win, nor should a home game with BC or Washington. I think the Irish could get to eight or nine wins, but that's the max. I'll say eight, but six wouldn't be a surprise.

Ok, so the WAC will be coming up whenever I get the chance. Take care everyone.