Ok, so last year I got pretty lucky just picking 3 teams. They all made bowl games and all seemed like pretty obvious choices as breakout teams. Indiana was a squad that just needed a few breaks to finally get to their first bowl since 1993. It felt odd picking 2 Big 10 teams, but the Illini had too much talent not to pick them with their highly favorable schedule. Oklahoma State should have been the true breakout squad, but they had some ups and downs and ultimately crushed the Hoosiers in the bowl game.
This year I only have 4 squads who I think could be true breakout squads that I don't see many people picking as making a run at .500 or even bowl games. Some teams I'm picking not because I think they can win their conference or division title in some cases, but merely because I think they are underrated and with the right breaks (see Indiana last year) could make a bowl game. I excluded New Mexico State from consideration because unless they beat New Mexico at home, they should start 1-3 and probably won't make a bowl game. Wake Forest seemed like a sensible pick, but they recently made a BCS bowl, so, I took them out of the running as well. SMU I like, but with June Jones now on board that seems like a bandwagon pick. Anyways, onto the picks...
#4 Temple Owls- I think this is a program that made the right choice by switching to the MAC and playing a relatively easy schedule. They should have beaten UConn last year, had officials made the right call on a TD pass in the end zone; even with replay proving the WRs foot was in bounds, they still missed it. Nonetheless, with Adam DiMichele at QB, this team is finally on the way to respectability. He has all his receivers back, as the team only loses 2 letterman collectively. With Bruce Francis, Jason Harper (moving from RB) and KR specialist Travis Shelton, this team will finally be able to put up points. I only see one truly winnable non-conference game at Army, but UConn at home could be an upset special since they should have beaten them last year. Everything depends on the progression of the defense. Ohio, Akron and Buffalo should be wins in conference play. Also, Miami OH and Eastern Michigan are susceptible and could help pull their record to 6-6, 7-5 with some lucky breaks. This team won't garner any top 25 votes, but a 6-6 record would be considered a major victory for a program on life support recently.
#3 Rice Owls- What is it with the Owls and defense? Rice is very weak defensively, but with 7 returning starters they could pull a 3-9 record up to 7-5, maybe even 8-4 with a road upset (like at UTEP or Vanderbilt). The Owls do have one bright spot on defense, a veteran secondary, and with Ja'Corey Shepard hopefully returning to his regular form, they could surprise many folks in C-USA. And, a good pass defense will be vital with SMU, Tulsa and Houston roaming around in their division. The offense is solid with maybe the best WR in the country in Jarett Dillard catching lots of TDs from Chase Clement. Dillard had 15 straight games with a TD and the attention he commands will only help players like James Casey and Toren Dixon improve every game. Now, if only the running game can find any life, they will be C-USA title contenders. CJ Ugokwe and Justin Hill have talent, but they need to be more consistent. Clement leading the team in rushing again won't help them much in their search for a 2nd bowl in 3 years. The schedule looks tough but beating SMU in week 1 at home could be crucial as the Mustangs adjust to their new offense. Then, 3 straight road games isn't easy, but they should beat Memphis, Vandy is ripe for an upset, and beating North Texas could put them at 3-2 or 4-1 if they're lucky. Coming out with a winning record would mean smooth sailing for a bowl.
#2 Iowa State Cyclones- This pick sounds insane, but it's not like I'm predicting them to win the Big XII North from Kansas or Missouri. I merely have a hunch that they could vault to bowl eligibility thanks to a very easy non-conference schedule. I know they lost to Kent State, but with more focus that shouldn't happen two years in a row. South Dakota St. will be a W, they beat Iowa last year, but probably won't be as easy since they play in Iowa City this year. Another road game at UNLV should put them at 3-1, possibly 4-0 then they get a bye week. Baylor will be an easy W and I think Colorado is on par talent wise. Texas A&M could also be vulnerable since it's homecoming for the Cyclones. I think with Austen Arnaud taking over and being a versatile dual-threat QB they will take off offensively. Marquis Hamilton and RJ Sumrall are underrated, veteran WRs who are capable of big plays. They're 3-deep at RB with JJ Bass, Alexander Robinson and Jason Scales and could help them win a few games they shouldn't. This is a matter of experience breeding success. They have all 4 starters returning in the secondary so they should be solid there, and as long as the LB corps develops nicely, they will be good enough defensively. I know it's a stretch, and probably out of the realm of possibility, but I see their easy schedule early on giving them enough confidence to barely make bowl eligibility.
#1 Ball State Cardinals- This was a team that really broke out last year against Nebraska, beat Navy and played Indiana and Illinois tough late in the season. I don't see why many people are picking them 3rd in the MAC West. Granted, Central Michigan has a ton of talent and should win the division, but the Cardinals could easily hop over Western Michigan for 2nd. All 11 starters return from one of the best offenses anywhere. Nate Davis is an amazing talent at QB who will only get better with Dante Love and TE Darius Hill returning. If HB MiQuale Lewis can return to form from an ACL injury last year they will be even better shape. Once again we encounter a team who's strength is in the secondary as their 3 best players return, accounting for 14 INTs combined. Their LB corps is good enough and with DE Brandon Crawford (8 sacks) they can rush the passer effectively. With their P returning, Ian McGarvey emerging as a solid K and Dante Love an effective KR, even the special teams is well above average. I see games at Central Michigan and Indiana as their toughest tests, along with a home game against Navy (whom they beat last year). I see as many as 10 wins for this mid-major power.
Have a fun year everyone. Enjoy all the games you can watch.
Jon
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