Well, this list will be a lot more difficult to compile than the top QBs for many reasons. For one, good starting QBs will never get benched, no matter how much they struggle unless the coach is fearing for his job. If a RB has 50 yards over 3 games, coaches have no qualms about sitting a supposed "star." Second, very rarely does a QB come out of nowhere to start for a productive team, unless your Kevin McDougal at Notre Dame in 1993, but even he lucked out as super freshman Ron Powlus got injured and didn't play. A fifth or sixth string running back can surprise the coaches and get the call to be great, ala Warrick Dunn for Florida State in that same year, 1993. Third, RBs will often split carries unless they are a Donald Brown at UConn last year, so if there are two good backs, like Jeremiah Johnson and LeGarrette Blount at Oregon, who knows which one will get the bulk of the carries for that week. And lastly, WRs are taking more rushing yards out of the equation thanks to Jim Grobe of Wake Forest and Urban Meyer at Florida who have tinkered with new ways of getting the hands into their speedy wideouts by way of quick hand-offs while the WR goes in motion. Anyways, enough foreplay, let's get to the list.
1. Jahvid Best, Cal- He has a good QB and WRs to keep the pressure off him. He's also a great receiver and the only tests will be USC, who loses a ton of starters, and at Oregon, both early in the season. Tons of speed, a real talent.
2. Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma St.- Georgia may be a tough game, but at least OSU gets them at home. Also, Houston, Rice, Grambling St., Iowa St. and Texas Tech should be big games for him. He also has a great QB, good backup RBs and a star WR to help a loaded offense.
3. Vai Taua, Nevada- Unless former star Luke Lippincott regains his job, Taua and QB Colin Kaepernick will rush for a ton of yards. Missouri and Notre Dame may not be easy tests, but UNLV, Idaho, New Mexico St. and Hawaii should get him plenty of yards.
4. Jonathan Dwyer, GA Tech- He averaged a ton of yards per carry last season and had plenty of long runs. With the flexbone offense he's in, he'll see plenty of opportunities for big gainers again. His division is weak, as is Jacksonville St. and at Mississippi St.
5. Eugene Jarvis, Kent St.- This is a confidence pick more than a can't miss one. With Julius Edelman running all over the place last season, Jarvis lost a ton of yards and TDs. He gets Buffalo, Eastern and Western Michigan and Coastal Carolina, all potential big games. He will also be the feature back for a new QB who won't be allowed to throw too much.
6. Damion Fletcher, Southern Miss- East Carolina and Kansas, possibly Louisville, are the only real tough defenses he should face all season. He also get his entire OL and plenty of weapons to take the pressure off of him. There's also no second RB to threaten his carries.
7. Evan Royster, Penn St.- This may be a risky pick because QB Daryll Clark has no viable WRs to throw to and his numbers can only go down from last year. The non-conference is especially pitiful, however, and Joe Paterno usually sticks to one dominant RB for a whole season.
8. Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon St.- Once again, here's another RB who has no competition for the bulk of the carries on offense and a good QB to share the burden on offense. Portland St., UNLV and Cincinnati should be big games, as is the rest of the Pac-10, an especially weak conference.
9. Darren Evans, VA Tech- Alabama and Nebraska may be tough defensive tests, but generally when a VA Tech offense gets rolling, the TB puts up big numbers. He may not have but 2 explosive games, but he'll get enough carries to be worth a high pick.
10. Bryce Beall, Houston- Despite games with Oklahoma St., Texas Tech and Southern Miss, Beall will have fantastic numbers. He's in possibly the most high-powered offense in the country and his division is very weak. With Keenum throwing all over the place, he'll grind out a lot of extra yards clinching games late.
11. LeGarrette Blount, Oregon- I love this kid; he has tons of home-run potential and was quite underrated last year. With Jeremiah Masoli and Andre Crenshaw potential running threats as well, this offense will be just as explosive. Schedule is kind of rough, but manageable.
12. Harvey Unga, BYU- With plenty of QB Max Hall's receiving threats gone, I think the Cougars will lean on the ground game a lot more at times. He's also a good receiver. Tulane and Utah St. will be big non-conference games and the rest of the MWC is not too rough.
13. Charles Scott, LSU- Despite stiff competition from Keiland Williams and Richard Murphy, Scott is a dynamic back who can carry the rushing load by himself and score tons of TDs near the goalline. Only Alabama and Florida will be the only outstanding defenses he faces.
14. CJ Spiller, Clemson- This ranking is for potential. TCU and South Carolina won't be easy defenses to face, but the rest of the ACC and non-conference is not that hard. Now, he may not have as many receptions being the go-to back and CBS sports doesn't count KR/PRs.
15. Toby Gerhart, Stanford- This player's output will likely depend on who starts at QB and how well they pass downfield and not allow teams to stack the line. San Jose St., Wake Forest and Notre Dame will be tough defenses, but the Pac-10 isn't that challenging.
16. Craig Cooper, Miami (FL)- Cooper will be an outstanding back if he can wrestle the bulk of the carries away from TB Javarris James. An experienced OL also returns to help him out. Be wary of games with South Florida and Oklahoma, while the rest are pretty basic.
17. Noel Devine, West Virginia- Devine is another big-play hitter and assuming new QB Jarrett Brown and slot WR Jock Sanders don't steal a lot of carries, his numbers should improve. He should also get more TDs without Pat White. Some non-conference games will be tricky, same for USF, but the rest of the schedule isn't too daunting.
18. MiQuale Lewis, Ball St.- Without QB Nate Davis, this will be a rough season for Lewis, who has a rough act to follow from '08. He can take the bulk of the carries, but his TD production will almost have to drop. The non-conference schedule is light, however, besides Auburn, so there is potential.
19. Andre Anderson, Tulane- Luckily, this back plays in the weak division of C-USA, while Army and McNeese St. have the potential for huge outputs. The QB position is unsettled, but they have good weapons on the flanks to help out.
20. Cyrus Gray, Texas A&M- With Mike Goodson now gone, Gray will be the feature back and has loads of potential. He's also got good weapons to support him. The non-conference schedule is very easy, but Oklahoma and Texas will be tough games.
21. Derrick Washington, Missouri- Their offense won't be nearly as successful as last year, but he should be the man yet again and have plenty of chances to score TDs, whoever's QBing the team. Bowling Green, Furman and Nevada will be opportunities for huge numbers.
22. Daniel Porter, LA Tech- LSU and Auburn will be rough non-conference opponents, but the WAC is pretty easy, including the toughest opponent, Boise St. at home. I like Porter because LT is run-oriented and he's a great receiver who may not have huge games, but be consistent.
23. Curtis Steele, Memphis-Assuming the Tigers' offense improves, Steele should have similar yardage numbers and more TDs. He also has a great passing game to support him. His three toughest games come in four weeks vs. Southern Miss, East Carolina, and Tennessee.
24. DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma- He, along with Brown, should put up similar numbers to 2008 because QB Sam Bradford loses most of his big-play WRs. Even if they split carries, both backs will shine in blowouts and near the goalline. The schedule is nice and easy as well.
25. Chris Brown, Oklahoma- (SEE DeMarco Murray)
26. James Starks, Buffalo- There's no great QB to take the pressure off, but the WRs should pose enough of a threat to keep defenses honest. He's also a great receiver and used to handling a lot of carries. The non-conference isn't very tough, nor is most of the MAC.
27. Victor Anderson, Louisville- He has some rough games at Utah, home vs. Southern Miss and possibly Kentucky, but the rest isn't too hard. However, he doesn't have a great QB to help out and may have a sophomore slump. With a good OL to help, he should be ok.
28. Roy Helu, Nebraska- Assuming Quentin Castille doesn't take away too many carries, and a QB develops soon, Helu should have a great season. The non-conference is quite easy, aside from VA Tech, and Oklahoma will be a tough defense in-conference.
29. Jaycen Taylor, Purdue- If he can come back from a tough injury, despite losing his QB, Taylor will be bad news for opposing Big 10 defenses. He's got good speed and is a good receiver. He also gets lucky by avoiding Penn St. and only Notre Dame and Oregon are tough non-conference foes.
30. Michael Smith, Arkansas- Troy may be a rough non-conference foe, as will LSU, Florida and Alabama from the SEC, but if Ryan Mallett is the talent at QB people expect him to be, Smith will have lots of running lanes to go through in this explosive offense.
31. Nic Grigsby, Arizona- The non-conference games are a joke and with a ton of great WRs to help out new QB Matt Scott, Grigsby will be explosive. Even if Keola Antolin takes away a few carries, the offense will score enough to make the split-time not matter very much.
32. Jake Sharp, Kansas- Almost all of the skill position players return on offense for the Jayhawks, which means Sharp should have loads of opportunities near the goalline and a lot of help all-around. Southern Miss, Oklahoma and Texas will be brutal, but everything else is easy.
33. Da'Rel Scott, Maryland- This Terps' offense hasn't been that explosive for around a decade or more and this is a risky pick. Assuming Scott gets the same amount of carries as last season, and Devin Meggett doesn't get a larger role, Scott will be good for another 1200 yards and 10-12 TDs. Easy schedule until the end of the season with VA Tech, Florida St. and BC.
34. Reggie Arnold, Arkansas St.- The non-conference will be tough with Nebraska, Iowa and Louisville all coming on the road, but the division is pretty weak aside from usual powehouse Troy. Also, Arnold benefits from outstanding QB Corey Leonard back to threaten opposing defenses and he could see increased receiving numbers.
35. Armando Allen, Notre Dame- VERY risky pick, huge potential, but also huge bust risk in a pass-heavy offense. He might share carries with Robert Hughes also, so he's only considered a good backup fantasy pick, Michigan, USC and BC will be the only challenging defenses.
36. Brandon Minor, Michigan- The Wolverines have to improve offensively in Rich Rodriguez's system and I believe Minor will be a big part of that resurgence. He gets Western and Eastern Michigan along with Delaware St. to help pad the stats.
37. Brandon West, Western Michigan- West will only be a big fantasy pick when Hiller doesn't get the go-ahead to throw 40+ times. He can catch a lot of passes, but didn't always get TD opportunities in the red zone. Michigan and Michigan St. will be tough matchups defensively.
38. DuJuan Harris, Troy- He's a mighty mouse back who plays in the right offense. With a dynamic passing game and an offense that believes in running it 30+ times to establish dominance, he should always have decent numbers. Florida will be tough, but no other team stands out as a total defensive mismatch, even Arkansas.
39. John Clay, Wisconsin-Even with Zach Brown lurking around, he should establish himself as the clear-cut #1 back and in Wisconsin's offense, that means plenty of carries and big numbers. Ohio St. and Michigan will be challenges, but the rest are mediocre defenses.
40. Caleb King, Georgia- Much like at Wisconsin, UGa generally finds a #1 back and gives him the ball a lot (Garrison Hearst, Herschel Walker, Knowshon Moreno). King should be a star and he has a good set of WRs and a strong returning OL to help him. Breaking in a new QB will get him lots of carries. Florida, LSU and South Carolina will be a challenge, along with GA Tech.
41. Josh Adams, Wake Forest- Very risky pick because WF's offense is quite erratic and hasn't established a standout RB for awhile, but he has great potential. Semi-tough ACC division, but Stanford, Elon and Navy will be opportunities for huge numbers.
42. Cam Montgomery, North Texas- Cam was the lone bright spot for NT last season besides do-it-all WR Casey Fitzgerald, and assuming Riley Dodge steps in at QB, he will be relied on to eat clock. He has all-world potential. He will do well in the Sun Belt and should do fine against Ohio or Ball St. and possibly Army too. Minor risk, but huge reward potential.
43. Jeremy Avery, Boise St.- Ian Johnson never separated himself from Avery last year and now all by himself, Avery has 1,500-2,000 yard rushing/receiving combined potential. He plays in a high-powered offense, so he will have a ton of opportunities. Oregon is tough, but everything else is a cakewalk.
44. Darius Marshall, Marshall- Good pick mostly for his consistency and ability to establish himself as the primary ball-carrier. Only if his QB improves will he get more TDs and receptions. VA Tech, WV, Southern Miss and East Carolina will be tough games, but the rest are shaky.
45. Ryan Matthews (or Anthony Harding), Fresno St.-Whoever gets the job will get a lot of yards, but in years past, Fresno has split carries when they have a talented backfield (ala Ron Rivers, Lorenzo Neal and Anthony Daigle in 1991-92). That means the TDs and yards will be split, so whoever wins the job should be just a supporting cast player.
46. Mark Ingram, Alabama- VA Tech and LSU will be difficult games, but the rest are horrific, including North Texas, Florida International and Chattanooga. I think he's ready to be the main man and contribute 1,000 yards and 10 TDs. Lost some good O-lineman, which may hurt.
47. Dan Herron, Ohio St.- Another school where the main RB gets the bulk of the carries and with his hype, big things are expected of Herron this year. He could lose the job to Brandon Saine, but whoever wins the job will lose some TDs to QB Terrelle Pryor near the redzone. USC, Penn St. and Michigan will be tests, but the rest of the schedule, nah.
48. Ben Tate or Mario Fannin, Auburn- Whichever one wins the starting job should be quite productive. I like both of these players, Fannin for his all-around abilities and speed, Tate for his power and durability. LSU, Alabama and WV will provide some resistance on the ground, but the Tigers will get their yards like they do every season, especially against the weaklings.
49. Mikell Simpson, Virginia- Huge sleeper pick. His numbers should definitely be up without Peerman and QB Jameel Sewell being reinstated at QB. I think he's quite versatile and could catch a lot of passes, especially without any proven WRs around. TCU, Southern Miss, BC, and GA Tech will be difficult to get past, but luckily, VA Tech comes after the fantasy season, so that won't hurt you if you draft him.
50. Deonte Jackson, Idaho- The Vandals' offense may be lacking quite a bit, but when you're the only real star or threat, you can have great numbers, which I expect Jackson to have this season. NIU, Washington and Colorado St. aren't the scariest of non-conference defenses and I believe Jackson will get a lot of carries for 1,000 yards easy. The key is getting more TDs.
Honorable Mentions: Darius Willis, Indiana, Stephen Simmons, Northwestern, Cordera Eason, Ole Miss, Bryce Brown, Tennessee, Jewel Hampton, Iowa, Anthony Dixon, Mississippi St., Joseph Turner, TCU, Atiyyah Henderson, San Diego St., Jamad Williams, Tulsa, whoever the FB is at Army, Terrence Blevins, EMU, Frank Goodin, ULM
Enjoy the season, good luck on your picks, unless you're in my league.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Saturday, June 27, 2009
Top 30 Fantasy QB
Ok, since fantasy college football was arguably one of the greatest things ever last season, I am yet again joining a few leagues (God knows how many). Anyways, to help me grasp who I should be drafting and so I can have a nifty cheat-sheet, I'm doing a top listing of the most important positions. Let's start with the most important one of all, quarterback. It's important to remember that this list isn't about who is the most talented QB in the country, but who will put up the best numbers based on returning starters that will help him and difficulty of schedule.
1. Case Keenum, Houston- Considering the conference and how many weapons he has returning, Keenum should easily top 5,000 total yards this season. His only really tough games should be at Mississippi St., Oklahoma St. and home games with Texas Tech and Southern Miss. BYEs: Sep. 19
2. Colt McCoy, Texas- With Jordan Shipley and plenty of good returning receivers, McCoy should again throw for plenty of yards and TDs. Also, with no proven RB, he will run for good numbers yet again. The schedule is pretty easy. BYEs: Oct. 3
3. Tim Tebow, Florida- Tebow's running numbers may be down with plenty of good RBs surrounding him, but he has good, speedy WRs and a fantastic TE. A road game with LSU will be tough, but the non-conference is easy. BYEs: Oct. 3
4. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma- It will almost be impossible for him to match last season's stats. but with Ryan Broyles and TE Gresham back, he should be good once again. BYU and at Miami should be tough, but he'll pull through. BYE: Sep. 26
5. Taylor Potts, Texas Tech- Ok he hasn't proven himself yet, but the TT QB almost always puts up 4,000 yards and plenty of TDs. OK, OK St. and TX will be tough, but the non-conference is relatively easy. Has good WRs to help him out. BYE: Nov. 7
6. Zac Robinson, Oklahoma St.- Thanks to WR Dez Bryant and a good cast of RBs around him, Robinson will be quite prolific yet again. He loses a great TE, but his rushing numbers should help make up for it. UGA is the only tough non-conf D. BYE: Oct. 3
7. Colin Kaepernick, Nevada- This is the real sleeper of the draft. His outstanding rushing/passing numbers should go well beyond 3,500 yards. Notre Dame and Missouri are the only real defensive tests beside Boise St. of course. BYE: Sept. 12
8. Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan- With most of his fantastic receiving corps returning, Lefevour should throw for well beyond 3,000 yards and have his good usual running numbers. He plays Arizona, Michigan St. and BC which should be tough defensive tests. BYE: Nov. 7
9. Juice Williams, Illinois- Yet another hidden gem in the draft. Williams has established he can throw for plenty of yards and his lots of weapons around him, but needs to cut down on his INTs. Penn St., Ohio St. and Missouri should be challenges, but with his running ability, he'll be ok. BYE: Sep. 19 and Nov. 21
10. Todd Reesing, Kansas- Reesing is a fantastic passer who should have incredible numbers for the third straight season with almost all of his weapons back. 4,000 yards is within reach and he can run for good numbers as well. Southern Miss, Oklahoma and at Texas will be tough but he will still be a great pick anywhere. BYE: Oct. 3
11. Robert Griffin, Baylor- This is a real risk here and he has plenty of good WRs, but he is in a very tough conference. If he can improve his passing numbers and keep the rushing numbers the same, he will be a steal. BYE: Sep. 12
12. Jevan Snead, Ole Miss- Snead should throw for plenty of yards with most of his WRs returning and a good set of RBs supporting him. He also can run, but hasn't been asked to a lot. Alabama, LSU and Auburn will be tough defensive tests. BYE: Sep. 12
13. Jeremiah Masoli, Oregon- Considering how much CBS sports gives out for rushing stats and TDs, Masoli is a player with incredible value. He should get 700 yards at least, if not a 1,000 and will have plenty of TDs running/passing. USC, UCLA and Boise St. will be tough and Utah is not as daunting as last year. BYE: Oct. 17, Nov. 28
14. Trevor Vittatoe, UTEP- Thanks to an outstanding receiving duo in Kris Adams and Jeff Moturi, this player should have incredible stats yet again. Kansas and at Texas are the only real tough tests since C-USA West is not defensive driven. BYE: Oct. 17
15. Bo Levi Mitchell, SMU- (NOTE, Big Risk) I think Mitchell will have plenty of yards, but will his TD-to-INT ratio improve enough to be worth the gamble? Has two incredible receivers in Aldrick Robinson and Emmanuel Sanders. TCU and East Carolina will be tough tests, especially back-to-back. BYE: Sep. 26
16. Kellen Moore, Boise St.- Austin Pettis is a great receiver and with no feature RB to hog up the yards, Moore should be in for a big season. Oregon will be a tough test but the other games should be relatively easy. BYE: Oct. 10
17. Tim Hiller, Western Michigan- He has to play at Michigan and Michigan St., but a road trip to Indiana may not be a fantasy disaster. Juan Nunez is a great go-to WR and his RBs can receive quite well so he will be productive yet again. BYE: Nov. 28
18. Adam Weber, Minnesota- With Eric Decker a potential All-American and newcomer Hayo Carpenter's blistering speed, Weber will surpass 3,000 yards easy and probably get 20-25 TDs. Syracuse, Air Force and Cal aren't very intimidating non-conference foes. BYE: Nov. 28
19. Jacob Bower, Tulsa- He will not put up the numbers David Johnson did in '08, but with Charles Clay (FB), Demaris Johnson, Slick Shelley and Trae Johnson, he could have incredible numbers. It depends on how much the running game produces and how many TDs that takes away. Oklahoma and Boise St. will be tough, but nothing else really, Southern Miss maybe. BYE: Oct. 10
20. Jerrod Johnson, Texas A&M- Johnson has an underrated group of WRs and TE Jamie McCoy to work with, so his numbers should only increase immensely. His non-conference schedule is a dream and Iowa St., Colorado and Kansas St. is easy for Big 12 north. BYE: Sep. 12
21. Russell Wilson, N.C. State- There are no standout WRs to throw to and he could have the Colt McCoy "sophomore slump" syndrome, so beware. South Carolina and Pitt will be tough out of conference and all the in-conference road games are brutal. BYE: Oct. 24
22. USC QB- It's just a fact, they always do well and whoever steps in this season will have an incredible supporting cast.
23. Matt Scott, Arizona- (Another BIG Risk) Scott doesn't have any experience, but the receivers are fantastic, as is TE Rob Gronkowski. There's a tricky game at Iowa early in the season and road games to Cal and USC will not be easy for a new starter. BYE: Oct. 3 and 31
24. Tony Pike, Cincinnati- I don't like him facing Oregon St., Fresno St. or Illinois out of conference, but he should be involved in a lot of shootouts with no defense to support him. He does have some great WRs to bail him out though. Oct. 10 and Nov. 21
25. Ryan Lindley, San Diego St.- UCLA and Utah may be some tough games, but most of the tougher conference foes are at home so Lindley should be great with more experience. Almost all of his WRs are back and the non-conference is pitiful, so I expect a lot here. BYE: Oct. 10
26. Ryan Mallett, Arkansas- (Huge Risk) He gets every WR and outstanding TE DJ Williams back so if he grasps the offense quickly, the Hogs will be explosive. Road games at Florida, Alabama, and LSU will not be easy, but he should produce against everybody else. BYE: Sep. 12
27. Austin Davis, Southern Miss- Assuming DeAndre Brown is recovered from his horrific injury, Davis should be a fine dual-threat player, assuming he gets the same amount of TDs on the ground in 2009 he got in '08. Road games to Kansas and a home date with Virginia won't be pushovers, and he does play in a decent division, but he will only improve as he gets more reps. BYE: Nov. 7
28. Joe Webb, UAB- This is another slightly risky pick, but on the bright side, he's almost all the Blazers have. It will be tough to match last year's 1,000 yard rushing effort, but with all his WRs back, including the explosive Frantrell Forrest, he should soar as a senior. BYE: Oct. 10
29. Greg Alexander, Hawaii- The Warriors always produce good numbers through the air, and with Alexander finally having the job to himself, he should be more confident and put up big numbers. Having Greg Salas, Malcolm Lane, Daniel Lofton and others returning doesn't hurt matters either. BYE: Sep. 26
30. Rusty Smith, Florida Atlantic- With almost all of his WRs back, including big-play TE Jason Harmon who missed 2008, Smith will again top 3,000 yards and maybe surpass 25-30 TDs. He has Nebraska and South Carolina, which won't be easy games or produce big numbers, but the rest of the schedule isn't very challenging defensively. Beware, sometimes CBS doesn't count Sun Belt games stats, it all depends. BYE: Sep 12 and Oct. 10
Honorable Mention: Riley Dodge, North Texas, Andy Schmitt, Eastern Michigan, Tyler Sheehan, Bowling Green, Casey Clausen, Notre Dame, Arkelon Hall, Memphis, Matt Grothe, USF
On a lighter note, beware of taking any Big Ten QBs not noted in the above list. Darryl Clark and Terrelle Pryor are good enough players, even Mike Kafka has potential at Northwestern, but really, the offenses have stayed ground-oriented for the most part even up until today. The SEC is also dangerous because of the outstanding defense that is played by each team week in, week out. The Sun Belt has potential for some QBs, but often-times CBS sports doesn't count a few of their games each season. Also, if your guy plays Tuesday or Wednesday, the game won't count either. Good luck.
1. Case Keenum, Houston- Considering the conference and how many weapons he has returning, Keenum should easily top 5,000 total yards this season. His only really tough games should be at Mississippi St., Oklahoma St. and home games with Texas Tech and Southern Miss. BYEs: Sep. 19
2. Colt McCoy, Texas- With Jordan Shipley and plenty of good returning receivers, McCoy should again throw for plenty of yards and TDs. Also, with no proven RB, he will run for good numbers yet again. The schedule is pretty easy. BYEs: Oct. 3
3. Tim Tebow, Florida- Tebow's running numbers may be down with plenty of good RBs surrounding him, but he has good, speedy WRs and a fantastic TE. A road game with LSU will be tough, but the non-conference is easy. BYEs: Oct. 3
4. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma- It will almost be impossible for him to match last season's stats. but with Ryan Broyles and TE Gresham back, he should be good once again. BYU and at Miami should be tough, but he'll pull through. BYE: Sep. 26
5. Taylor Potts, Texas Tech- Ok he hasn't proven himself yet, but the TT QB almost always puts up 4,000 yards and plenty of TDs. OK, OK St. and TX will be tough, but the non-conference is relatively easy. Has good WRs to help him out. BYE: Nov. 7
6. Zac Robinson, Oklahoma St.- Thanks to WR Dez Bryant and a good cast of RBs around him, Robinson will be quite prolific yet again. He loses a great TE, but his rushing numbers should help make up for it. UGA is the only tough non-conf D. BYE: Oct. 3
7. Colin Kaepernick, Nevada- This is the real sleeper of the draft. His outstanding rushing/passing numbers should go well beyond 3,500 yards. Notre Dame and Missouri are the only real defensive tests beside Boise St. of course. BYE: Sept. 12
8. Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan- With most of his fantastic receiving corps returning, Lefevour should throw for well beyond 3,000 yards and have his good usual running numbers. He plays Arizona, Michigan St. and BC which should be tough defensive tests. BYE: Nov. 7
9. Juice Williams, Illinois- Yet another hidden gem in the draft. Williams has established he can throw for plenty of yards and his lots of weapons around him, but needs to cut down on his INTs. Penn St., Ohio St. and Missouri should be challenges, but with his running ability, he'll be ok. BYE: Sep. 19 and Nov. 21
10. Todd Reesing, Kansas- Reesing is a fantastic passer who should have incredible numbers for the third straight season with almost all of his weapons back. 4,000 yards is within reach and he can run for good numbers as well. Southern Miss, Oklahoma and at Texas will be tough but he will still be a great pick anywhere. BYE: Oct. 3
11. Robert Griffin, Baylor- This is a real risk here and he has plenty of good WRs, but he is in a very tough conference. If he can improve his passing numbers and keep the rushing numbers the same, he will be a steal. BYE: Sep. 12
12. Jevan Snead, Ole Miss- Snead should throw for plenty of yards with most of his WRs returning and a good set of RBs supporting him. He also can run, but hasn't been asked to a lot. Alabama, LSU and Auburn will be tough defensive tests. BYE: Sep. 12
13. Jeremiah Masoli, Oregon- Considering how much CBS sports gives out for rushing stats and TDs, Masoli is a player with incredible value. He should get 700 yards at least, if not a 1,000 and will have plenty of TDs running/passing. USC, UCLA and Boise St. will be tough and Utah is not as daunting as last year. BYE: Oct. 17, Nov. 28
14. Trevor Vittatoe, UTEP- Thanks to an outstanding receiving duo in Kris Adams and Jeff Moturi, this player should have incredible stats yet again. Kansas and at Texas are the only real tough tests since C-USA West is not defensive driven. BYE: Oct. 17
15. Bo Levi Mitchell, SMU- (NOTE, Big Risk) I think Mitchell will have plenty of yards, but will his TD-to-INT ratio improve enough to be worth the gamble? Has two incredible receivers in Aldrick Robinson and Emmanuel Sanders. TCU and East Carolina will be tough tests, especially back-to-back. BYE: Sep. 26
16. Kellen Moore, Boise St.- Austin Pettis is a great receiver and with no feature RB to hog up the yards, Moore should be in for a big season. Oregon will be a tough test but the other games should be relatively easy. BYE: Oct. 10
17. Tim Hiller, Western Michigan- He has to play at Michigan and Michigan St., but a road trip to Indiana may not be a fantasy disaster. Juan Nunez is a great go-to WR and his RBs can receive quite well so he will be productive yet again. BYE: Nov. 28
18. Adam Weber, Minnesota- With Eric Decker a potential All-American and newcomer Hayo Carpenter's blistering speed, Weber will surpass 3,000 yards easy and probably get 20-25 TDs. Syracuse, Air Force and Cal aren't very intimidating non-conference foes. BYE: Nov. 28
19. Jacob Bower, Tulsa- He will not put up the numbers David Johnson did in '08, but with Charles Clay (FB), Demaris Johnson, Slick Shelley and Trae Johnson, he could have incredible numbers. It depends on how much the running game produces and how many TDs that takes away. Oklahoma and Boise St. will be tough, but nothing else really, Southern Miss maybe. BYE: Oct. 10
20. Jerrod Johnson, Texas A&M- Johnson has an underrated group of WRs and TE Jamie McCoy to work with, so his numbers should only increase immensely. His non-conference schedule is a dream and Iowa St., Colorado and Kansas St. is easy for Big 12 north. BYE: Sep. 12
21. Russell Wilson, N.C. State- There are no standout WRs to throw to and he could have the Colt McCoy "sophomore slump" syndrome, so beware. South Carolina and Pitt will be tough out of conference and all the in-conference road games are brutal. BYE: Oct. 24
22. USC QB- It's just a fact, they always do well and whoever steps in this season will have an incredible supporting cast.
23. Matt Scott, Arizona- (Another BIG Risk) Scott doesn't have any experience, but the receivers are fantastic, as is TE Rob Gronkowski. There's a tricky game at Iowa early in the season and road games to Cal and USC will not be easy for a new starter. BYE: Oct. 3 and 31
24. Tony Pike, Cincinnati- I don't like him facing Oregon St., Fresno St. or Illinois out of conference, but he should be involved in a lot of shootouts with no defense to support him. He does have some great WRs to bail him out though. Oct. 10 and Nov. 21
25. Ryan Lindley, San Diego St.- UCLA and Utah may be some tough games, but most of the tougher conference foes are at home so Lindley should be great with more experience. Almost all of his WRs are back and the non-conference is pitiful, so I expect a lot here. BYE: Oct. 10
26. Ryan Mallett, Arkansas- (Huge Risk) He gets every WR and outstanding TE DJ Williams back so if he grasps the offense quickly, the Hogs will be explosive. Road games at Florida, Alabama, and LSU will not be easy, but he should produce against everybody else. BYE: Sep. 12
27. Austin Davis, Southern Miss- Assuming DeAndre Brown is recovered from his horrific injury, Davis should be a fine dual-threat player, assuming he gets the same amount of TDs on the ground in 2009 he got in '08. Road games to Kansas and a home date with Virginia won't be pushovers, and he does play in a decent division, but he will only improve as he gets more reps. BYE: Nov. 7
28. Joe Webb, UAB- This is another slightly risky pick, but on the bright side, he's almost all the Blazers have. It will be tough to match last year's 1,000 yard rushing effort, but with all his WRs back, including the explosive Frantrell Forrest, he should soar as a senior. BYE: Oct. 10
29. Greg Alexander, Hawaii- The Warriors always produce good numbers through the air, and with Alexander finally having the job to himself, he should be more confident and put up big numbers. Having Greg Salas, Malcolm Lane, Daniel Lofton and others returning doesn't hurt matters either. BYE: Sep. 26
30. Rusty Smith, Florida Atlantic- With almost all of his WRs back, including big-play TE Jason Harmon who missed 2008, Smith will again top 3,000 yards and maybe surpass 25-30 TDs. He has Nebraska and South Carolina, which won't be easy games or produce big numbers, but the rest of the schedule isn't very challenging defensively. Beware, sometimes CBS doesn't count Sun Belt games stats, it all depends. BYE: Sep 12 and Oct. 10
Honorable Mention: Riley Dodge, North Texas, Andy Schmitt, Eastern Michigan, Tyler Sheehan, Bowling Green, Casey Clausen, Notre Dame, Arkelon Hall, Memphis, Matt Grothe, USF
On a lighter note, beware of taking any Big Ten QBs not noted in the above list. Darryl Clark and Terrelle Pryor are good enough players, even Mike Kafka has potential at Northwestern, but really, the offenses have stayed ground-oriented for the most part even up until today. The SEC is also dangerous because of the outstanding defense that is played by each team week in, week out. The Sun Belt has potential for some QBs, but often-times CBS sports doesn't count a few of their games each season. Also, if your guy plays Tuesday or Wednesday, the game won't count either. Good luck.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Big East Preview
This used to be a power conference back when Louisville, West Virginia and Rutgers, to a point, were consistently being ranked in the top 10 and winning BCS games. Most recently, the likes of UConn, South Florida and Cincinnati have become much better teams, consistently making bowls and presenting a real challenge to the conference's elite. Let's get to it.
Cincinnati- Ok, I've been subscribing and buying college football annuals since 1992 and never can I remember a defense returning just one starter like Cincinnati does this year. Safe to say, the defense will not be good, even though Aaron Webster is a fine SS and DL Curtis Young and John Hughes could be decent pass rushers. Andre Revels is also a fine LB, but with no experience in a 4-man LB set, things don't look good. On offense, this may have been the Big East's best if the NCAA had accepted Vidal Hazelton's request to play in 2009. However, the Bearcats will still be very good thanks to QB Tony Pike and a slew of talented receivers. Mardy Gilyard and Marcus Barnett should be great again this season and former QB, now TE, Ben Guidugli, will only get better with experience. John Goebel, Jacob Ramsey and Isaiah Pead should make a good three-headed combo at RB, but I don't expect big numbers from them as a whole. With the defense the way it is, I don't like Cincinnati's chances at Oregon St. or against Illinois and Fresno St. at home. They will be lucky to come away 4-1 or even 3-2 in non-conference. Facing West Virginia at home and road trips to USF, Rutgers and Pitt will be tough tests. I think 6-7 wins is the high-mater wark for this club, but 8 is not out of reach.
Connecticut- I still can't believe this team won 8 games last season because no one could figure out the four basic plays the offense ran all season; Donald Brown left, Donald Brown right, Donald Brown up the middle, and a horribly thrown play action pass by former QB Tyler Lorenzen. Now, without Brown, this is a mediocre team at best. Jordan Todman won't be able to carry half the load Brown did, while whoever steps in at QB will have an awful receiving corps, except for Michael Smith. DE Lindsey Witten was a nice pass rusher in limited action and DT Twyon Martin will be a nice contributor as well. The LBs are outstanding with Scott Lutrus, Greg Lloyd, and Lawrence Wilson leading the way. At the secondary positions the Huskies are all set with ball-hawking safeties Aaron Bagsby and Robert Vaughn completing fantastic cover corners Jasper Howard and Robert McClain. The defense is what ultimately carried the Huskies last year (as did Brown) and UConn must rely on that again in 2009. I see the schedule as being a problem with UNC and road games atBaylor and Notre dame. Even traveling to Ohio is tricky as the Bobcats upset Pitt a few years ago on national TV. I see a 2-3 non-conference outcome and then a brutal conference slate. I guess Syracuse is winnable, maybe Louisville. Four wins is my max give here, five if they catch EVERY break imaginable. This team will be awful offensively and I hope I don't have to watch them on TV this season a lot.
Louisville- Assuming transfer Justin Burke is the answer at QB, Louisville will be on the rise. Burke should be ok thanks to standout WR Doug Beaumont and his supporting cast of speedy Trent Guy, reliable Scott Long and huge (6'8) Josh Chichester. Not to mention having good receivers, Burke will inherit Victor Anderson, only a sophomore, who is a bulldozer and should be good for 250-300 carries and 1500 yards easy. It doesn't hurt to have three good starters back on the OL as well. On defense, Jon Dempsey and Antwon Canady were good, but not great at LB, and the DL is not going to fare well with just one returning starter. The DL was bad enough last year at rushing the passer, so any bit of regression will cost them a few wins. Johnny Patrick and Daniel Covington are good DBs, and if JUCO newcomer Preston Pace, who has blistering speed, is a quick learner, the secondary will be outstanding and help a very underwhelming defense overall. If the Cardinals can take two out of three going to Utah and Kentucky and at home against Southern Miss, then a bowl game should be within reach. It won't be easy however. Syracuse and Rutgers are manageable home games while going to UConn will decide who truly belongs in the lower-half. I'll say five wins, with six and a bowl game being realistic.
Pittsburgh- It will be tough for the Panthers to replace LaSean McCoy and his contributions at TB, but they have a host of options, including newcomers Dion Lewis and Ray Graham. They both have good speed and should be a nice 50/50 tandem. Whoever starts and however the carries are divided, the running game will benefit from having four starters back on the O-line. Coach Wannstedt better hope the running game comes together because the passing game is not very stable. Bill Stull is a reliable signal-caller, but throws too many INTs. Oderick Turner and Jonathan Baldwin are stable receiving threats, but nothing spectacular. Pitt should be solid again on defense, especially with DEs Greg Romeus and Jabaal Sheard returning, who could easily improve on the 13 combined sacks they had in 2008. Mick Williams is also fine at DT, but only LB Greg Williams is a standout and unless the other two starters come along, the LBs will be a glaring weakness. Aaron Berry is an outstanding CB and SS Dom DeCicco is an overachiever, which could make for a decent secondary. Pitt has a very interesting non-conference schedule because they play Navy, which is always a tough game, and a road tilt with NC State will be very difficult. A home game with Notre Dame will be another tough test, but one they could easily pass. In conference they get USF and Cincinnati at home, which will be quite beneficial, but a road game with rival West Virginia will make or break their chances at winning the Big East. I'll call for eight wins at least and could easily see them getting up to nine or ten.
Rutgers- The Scarlet Knights have a good stable of RBs, including Kordell Young and Jourdan Brooks, who will benefit quite nicely from 4 returning starters on the O-line. Tim Brown is a fine WR, but he will hurt by the loss of Tiquan Underwood and Kenny Brittt, two outstanding playmakers. Shamar Graves may help him out at TE, but I don't think the QB position will be very stable. Unless the Knights lean on the ground game or a new QB develops out of thin air, the offense will struggle mightily. On defense, Alex Silvestro and George Johnson are fine DEs, but really need to up their productivity. The LBs will be a strong group if Michigan transfer Marcus Witherspoon can contribute right away because Ryan D'Imperio is a solid player, as is Manny Abreu, who has loads of potential. The secondary will have to gel right away because although Devin McCourty is an ok cover corner, he will need help from David Rowe and returning safety Joe Lefeged. The non-conference schedule is pitiful as they will be playing two Div I-AA opponents in Howard and Texas Southern. They also get a sure win against FIU and trips to Maryland and Army which won't be too tough, but the Terps always have upset potential. I think every conference home game is 50/50 because WV and USF are among the elite, while Cincinnati and Pitt could be very good yet again. The only trick in-conference road game is Louisville. I'll call for somewhere between six and eight wins unless a new QB develops immediately. Seven wins sounds just about right.
South Florida- The Bulls success or failure on offense really depends on two important areas; first is whether or not Matt Grothe can improve on an 18-to-14 TD-to-INT ratio from 2008. Second, can Mike Ford finally become the feature back he was destined to be. Ford has all the size, speed and talent, but can never stay healthy enough to be relied upon full-time. I think Carlton Mitchell, Jessie Hester and AJ Love could make up the best receiving corps in the Big East if they play up to their potential. The OL will be a major weakness with just one returning starter so Grothe will have to scramble a lot again this season. Grothe could even become USF's all-time leading rusher as he just needs 647 yards (he had 591 in 2008). If DE George Selvie can become a dominant pass rusher again, the defense will benefit greatly. Terrell McClain is a fine DT and he, along with the rest of the defensive line, should put up good numbers next to Selvie who will be double-teamed a lot. Kion Wilson is a dependable LB, but this unit as a whole needs to produce on a more consistent basis. Jerome Murphy could be a stud at CB, but he needs Quenton Washington to step up his game, especially in a conference where a lot of teams have more than one talented WR. The safety position will be ok as I think Jerrell Young, who put up good numbers in limited action last season, will be a solid starter. USF could start 4-0 if they can beat Florida St. on the road and then the conference schedule starts off with a bang against Syracuse on the road, which could be tricky. Luckily, the Bulls get Cincinnati, Louisville and WV at home and a road game with Pitt is in late October, which means it won't be too cold and the Bulls have a decent shot at getting the road win. I still don't see the Bulls winning the Big East, but I certainly don't see why eight or nine wins is out of the question.
Syracuse- Hey, it's the owners of the stupidest move of the decade; Syracuse went from those beloved Orange helmets, which were as classic as Penn St. and Notre Dame and those hideous letters have caused them nothing but trouble since. They have gone 10-37 since the helmet change, need I say more? If Phil Steele is correct, I don't like the idea of replacing Cameron Dantley at QB, who despite his poor completion percentage had a good TD-to-INT ratio. I think Delone Carter will be a fantastic RB if he gets the same amount of carries as Curtis Brinkley got last season. Donte Davis and Lavar Lobdell aren't outstanding receivers, but Mike Williams is a budding superstar and should be fine after being suspended in 2008. Arthur Jones is a fantastic DT and can only get better, but the rest of the DL needs help as they have limited experience. The LBs are solid with Derrell Smith and Mike Mele, but they will have to improve if the Orange are going to get more than their 3 wins last year. The secondary is just as bad as the rest of the defense with Mike Holmes being a glimmer of hope. Facing Penn St. on the road and Minnesota, Northwestern and Akron is not a beneficial non-conference schedule. I think the Zips could even pull off an upset here, much like they almost did in 2008. The in-conference schedule is even more brutal as they get possibly the 3 best teams (WV, Cincy and USF) all at home. They better pull off a few upsets to get past the three wins I'm predicting (and that's being generous).
West Virginia- Everyone seems to be down on the Mountaineers because they lose Pat White, one of the best starting QBs in recent memory. However, many people seem to forget they have Jarrett Brown back, who has been more than a capable fill-in whenever White got hurt (which was frequently). Brown has decent speed, although not as fast as White, and is a very accurate passer. Noel Devine should be outstanding yet again as a feature back, while newcomer Tavis Austin could produce big things, much like the last superstar from Dunbar HS, Arrelious Benn who went to Illinois. Jock Sanders is a versatile slot receiver/running back who could go well over 1,500 yards all-purpose with the right amount of carries and balls thrown his way. Alric Arnett and Bradley Starks are very capable WRs, while Wes Lyons at 6'8" should be used much more effectively. The OL will be hurting with just one starter back, but with this offensive scheme, they should still be able to come together quickly. While not outstanding, I think DL Scooter Berry and Chris Neild could be big-time players with more experience. JT Thomas and Reed Williams are also solid LBs in the 3-3-5 scheme which has worked quite well for the Mountaineers over the last few seasons. Sidney Glover is also a fine safety and Brandon Hogan is a fabulous cover corner who should be effective again this year. Franchot Allen is asked to do multiple things from his DB spot and will be quite a standout with more playing time (starts). Back-to-back games with East Carolina at home and Auburn on the road will be pivotal tests for this team who hasn't played a lot of games together on both sides of the ball. I think they will get revenge in a big way against Colorado at home and Marshall is a sure-fire win. The only real tests in conference will be at Cincinnati and USF, while the "Backyard Brawl" with Pitt usually determines whether they win the Big East or not. While the non-conference schedule looks like it plays out nicely, this club always makes one or two mistakes in big games they should win. I'll call for 9 wins and a Big East title, with 10-11 being an outside chance, only if Brown is better than advertised (he has major DJ Shockley potential).
Cincinnati- Ok, I've been subscribing and buying college football annuals since 1992 and never can I remember a defense returning just one starter like Cincinnati does this year. Safe to say, the defense will not be good, even though Aaron Webster is a fine SS and DL Curtis Young and John Hughes could be decent pass rushers. Andre Revels is also a fine LB, but with no experience in a 4-man LB set, things don't look good. On offense, this may have been the Big East's best if the NCAA had accepted Vidal Hazelton's request to play in 2009. However, the Bearcats will still be very good thanks to QB Tony Pike and a slew of talented receivers. Mardy Gilyard and Marcus Barnett should be great again this season and former QB, now TE, Ben Guidugli, will only get better with experience. John Goebel, Jacob Ramsey and Isaiah Pead should make a good three-headed combo at RB, but I don't expect big numbers from them as a whole. With the defense the way it is, I don't like Cincinnati's chances at Oregon St. or against Illinois and Fresno St. at home. They will be lucky to come away 4-1 or even 3-2 in non-conference. Facing West Virginia at home and road trips to USF, Rutgers and Pitt will be tough tests. I think 6-7 wins is the high-mater wark for this club, but 8 is not out of reach.
Connecticut- I still can't believe this team won 8 games last season because no one could figure out the four basic plays the offense ran all season; Donald Brown left, Donald Brown right, Donald Brown up the middle, and a horribly thrown play action pass by former QB Tyler Lorenzen. Now, without Brown, this is a mediocre team at best. Jordan Todman won't be able to carry half the load Brown did, while whoever steps in at QB will have an awful receiving corps, except for Michael Smith. DE Lindsey Witten was a nice pass rusher in limited action and DT Twyon Martin will be a nice contributor as well. The LBs are outstanding with Scott Lutrus, Greg Lloyd, and Lawrence Wilson leading the way. At the secondary positions the Huskies are all set with ball-hawking safeties Aaron Bagsby and Robert Vaughn completing fantastic cover corners Jasper Howard and Robert McClain. The defense is what ultimately carried the Huskies last year (as did Brown) and UConn must rely on that again in 2009. I see the schedule as being a problem with UNC and road games atBaylor and Notre dame. Even traveling to Ohio is tricky as the Bobcats upset Pitt a few years ago on national TV. I see a 2-3 non-conference outcome and then a brutal conference slate. I guess Syracuse is winnable, maybe Louisville. Four wins is my max give here, five if they catch EVERY break imaginable. This team will be awful offensively and I hope I don't have to watch them on TV this season a lot.
Louisville- Assuming transfer Justin Burke is the answer at QB, Louisville will be on the rise. Burke should be ok thanks to standout WR Doug Beaumont and his supporting cast of speedy Trent Guy, reliable Scott Long and huge (6'8) Josh Chichester. Not to mention having good receivers, Burke will inherit Victor Anderson, only a sophomore, who is a bulldozer and should be good for 250-300 carries and 1500 yards easy. It doesn't hurt to have three good starters back on the OL as well. On defense, Jon Dempsey and Antwon Canady were good, but not great at LB, and the DL is not going to fare well with just one returning starter. The DL was bad enough last year at rushing the passer, so any bit of regression will cost them a few wins. Johnny Patrick and Daniel Covington are good DBs, and if JUCO newcomer Preston Pace, who has blistering speed, is a quick learner, the secondary will be outstanding and help a very underwhelming defense overall. If the Cardinals can take two out of three going to Utah and Kentucky and at home against Southern Miss, then a bowl game should be within reach. It won't be easy however. Syracuse and Rutgers are manageable home games while going to UConn will decide who truly belongs in the lower-half. I'll say five wins, with six and a bowl game being realistic.
Pittsburgh- It will be tough for the Panthers to replace LaSean McCoy and his contributions at TB, but they have a host of options, including newcomers Dion Lewis and Ray Graham. They both have good speed and should be a nice 50/50 tandem. Whoever starts and however the carries are divided, the running game will benefit from having four starters back on the O-line. Coach Wannstedt better hope the running game comes together because the passing game is not very stable. Bill Stull is a reliable signal-caller, but throws too many INTs. Oderick Turner and Jonathan Baldwin are stable receiving threats, but nothing spectacular. Pitt should be solid again on defense, especially with DEs Greg Romeus and Jabaal Sheard returning, who could easily improve on the 13 combined sacks they had in 2008. Mick Williams is also fine at DT, but only LB Greg Williams is a standout and unless the other two starters come along, the LBs will be a glaring weakness. Aaron Berry is an outstanding CB and SS Dom DeCicco is an overachiever, which could make for a decent secondary. Pitt has a very interesting non-conference schedule because they play Navy, which is always a tough game, and a road tilt with NC State will be very difficult. A home game with Notre Dame will be another tough test, but one they could easily pass. In conference they get USF and Cincinnati at home, which will be quite beneficial, but a road game with rival West Virginia will make or break their chances at winning the Big East. I'll call for eight wins at least and could easily see them getting up to nine or ten.
Rutgers- The Scarlet Knights have a good stable of RBs, including Kordell Young and Jourdan Brooks, who will benefit quite nicely from 4 returning starters on the O-line. Tim Brown is a fine WR, but he will hurt by the loss of Tiquan Underwood and Kenny Brittt, two outstanding playmakers. Shamar Graves may help him out at TE, but I don't think the QB position will be very stable. Unless the Knights lean on the ground game or a new QB develops out of thin air, the offense will struggle mightily. On defense, Alex Silvestro and George Johnson are fine DEs, but really need to up their productivity. The LBs will be a strong group if Michigan transfer Marcus Witherspoon can contribute right away because Ryan D'Imperio is a solid player, as is Manny Abreu, who has loads of potential. The secondary will have to gel right away because although Devin McCourty is an ok cover corner, he will need help from David Rowe and returning safety Joe Lefeged. The non-conference schedule is pitiful as they will be playing two Div I-AA opponents in Howard and Texas Southern. They also get a sure win against FIU and trips to Maryland and Army which won't be too tough, but the Terps always have upset potential. I think every conference home game is 50/50 because WV and USF are among the elite, while Cincinnati and Pitt could be very good yet again. The only trick in-conference road game is Louisville. I'll call for somewhere between six and eight wins unless a new QB develops immediately. Seven wins sounds just about right.
South Florida- The Bulls success or failure on offense really depends on two important areas; first is whether or not Matt Grothe can improve on an 18-to-14 TD-to-INT ratio from 2008. Second, can Mike Ford finally become the feature back he was destined to be. Ford has all the size, speed and talent, but can never stay healthy enough to be relied upon full-time. I think Carlton Mitchell, Jessie Hester and AJ Love could make up the best receiving corps in the Big East if they play up to their potential. The OL will be a major weakness with just one returning starter so Grothe will have to scramble a lot again this season. Grothe could even become USF's all-time leading rusher as he just needs 647 yards (he had 591 in 2008). If DE George Selvie can become a dominant pass rusher again, the defense will benefit greatly. Terrell McClain is a fine DT and he, along with the rest of the defensive line, should put up good numbers next to Selvie who will be double-teamed a lot. Kion Wilson is a dependable LB, but this unit as a whole needs to produce on a more consistent basis. Jerome Murphy could be a stud at CB, but he needs Quenton Washington to step up his game, especially in a conference where a lot of teams have more than one talented WR. The safety position will be ok as I think Jerrell Young, who put up good numbers in limited action last season, will be a solid starter. USF could start 4-0 if they can beat Florida St. on the road and then the conference schedule starts off with a bang against Syracuse on the road, which could be tricky. Luckily, the Bulls get Cincinnati, Louisville and WV at home and a road game with Pitt is in late October, which means it won't be too cold and the Bulls have a decent shot at getting the road win. I still don't see the Bulls winning the Big East, but I certainly don't see why eight or nine wins is out of the question.
Syracuse- Hey, it's the owners of the stupidest move of the decade; Syracuse went from those beloved Orange helmets, which were as classic as Penn St. and Notre Dame and those hideous letters have caused them nothing but trouble since. They have gone 10-37 since the helmet change, need I say more? If Phil Steele is correct, I don't like the idea of replacing Cameron Dantley at QB, who despite his poor completion percentage had a good TD-to-INT ratio. I think Delone Carter will be a fantastic RB if he gets the same amount of carries as Curtis Brinkley got last season. Donte Davis and Lavar Lobdell aren't outstanding receivers, but Mike Williams is a budding superstar and should be fine after being suspended in 2008. Arthur Jones is a fantastic DT and can only get better, but the rest of the DL needs help as they have limited experience. The LBs are solid with Derrell Smith and Mike Mele, but they will have to improve if the Orange are going to get more than their 3 wins last year. The secondary is just as bad as the rest of the defense with Mike Holmes being a glimmer of hope. Facing Penn St. on the road and Minnesota, Northwestern and Akron is not a beneficial non-conference schedule. I think the Zips could even pull off an upset here, much like they almost did in 2008. The in-conference schedule is even more brutal as they get possibly the 3 best teams (WV, Cincy and USF) all at home. They better pull off a few upsets to get past the three wins I'm predicting (and that's being generous).
West Virginia- Everyone seems to be down on the Mountaineers because they lose Pat White, one of the best starting QBs in recent memory. However, many people seem to forget they have Jarrett Brown back, who has been more than a capable fill-in whenever White got hurt (which was frequently). Brown has decent speed, although not as fast as White, and is a very accurate passer. Noel Devine should be outstanding yet again as a feature back, while newcomer Tavis Austin could produce big things, much like the last superstar from Dunbar HS, Arrelious Benn who went to Illinois. Jock Sanders is a versatile slot receiver/running back who could go well over 1,500 yards all-purpose with the right amount of carries and balls thrown his way. Alric Arnett and Bradley Starks are very capable WRs, while Wes Lyons at 6'8" should be used much more effectively. The OL will be hurting with just one starter back, but with this offensive scheme, they should still be able to come together quickly. While not outstanding, I think DL Scooter Berry and Chris Neild could be big-time players with more experience. JT Thomas and Reed Williams are also solid LBs in the 3-3-5 scheme which has worked quite well for the Mountaineers over the last few seasons. Sidney Glover is also a fine safety and Brandon Hogan is a fabulous cover corner who should be effective again this year. Franchot Allen is asked to do multiple things from his DB spot and will be quite a standout with more playing time (starts). Back-to-back games with East Carolina at home and Auburn on the road will be pivotal tests for this team who hasn't played a lot of games together on both sides of the ball. I think they will get revenge in a big way against Colorado at home and Marshall is a sure-fire win. The only real tests in conference will be at Cincinnati and USF, while the "Backyard Brawl" with Pitt usually determines whether they win the Big East or not. While the non-conference schedule looks like it plays out nicely, this club always makes one or two mistakes in big games they should win. I'll call for 9 wins and a Big East title, with 10-11 being an outside chance, only if Brown is better than advertised (he has major DJ Shockley potential).
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
MWC Preview
Air Force- The Falcons really overachieved last year considering QB Tim Jefferson started as a freshman (plebe) for most of the season. While they do lose one good RB, TBs Asher Clark and Kyle Lumpkin, FB Jared Tew and WB Kyle Halderman all return as dangerous running threats. Halderman is also a good receiving threat , and if WR Josh Cousins can maintain his productivity, this will be a very dangerous offense. Jefferson should only improve as a passer, and with 3 OL returning, his numbers should only get better as he gains experience. On defense the Falcons return three outstanding starters in the secondary and Reggie Rembert and Anthony Wright could have big seasons against a conference that has many teams with question marks regarding their respective passing games. Ken Lamendola is a stud at LB, and Patrick Hennessey and Andre Morris could be productive, but the key will be how well the DL rushes the passer. Ben Garland and Andre Morris are fine DL, but there needs to be some urgency because a soft schedule could mean lots of wins. While Army and Navy are never easy wins for the Falcons, I think a road trip to Minnesota is the only thing stands in the way of a perfect 4-0 non-conference schedule. TCU is a winnable game at home, but road trips to BYU and Utah are going to be tough, but one for two seems realistic. I'll call for 7 wins at least, but 8 seems a possibility.
BYU- First off, the Cougars have a great QB but need a lot of help at WR and if they don't start Andrew George at one WR spot, then they deserve to struggle. Dennis Pitta is already an All-American caliber TE, so no need for George there. Also, with George's size, he's better than any of the three prospects ahead of him. Luke Ashworth and O'Neill Chambers are solid players, but McKay Jacobson will really have to prove himself. The bad news for BYU is they lose a ton of starters on the O-line, which could hurt Harvey Unga unless they gel right away. The Cougars return all of their starters on the DL, but unfortunately, only DE Jan Jorgensen is a standout player. Matt Bauman and Coleby Clawson are good LBs, but they will need some help from returning starter Shawn Doman who made a lot of tackles but no real big plays. Scott Johnson is a decent safety, but unless JUCO transfer Brian Logan or Brandon Howard plays well, the secondary will be a major weakness. An early trip to the Lone Star State will be a painful one for the Cougars against Oklahoma, but a home game with Florida St. is winnable and thus, a 3-1 non-conference record is plausible. A road game to UNLV won't be easy, but home games against the other elite teams in the conference, TCU, Utah and Air Force give the Cougars a good shot at winning the conference. A 9 or 10 win season is not out of reach.
Colorado St.- This is going to be an interesting season for the Rams; on the one hand, they have a great OL with no experienced RBs to benefit and two outstanding WRs with no dependable QB to get them the ball. Go figure. Rashaun Greer and Dion Morton are great at going deep or being posession receivers, while Klay Kubiak should be the starting QB because of his familiarity with the offense, but it looks like Grant Stucker will win the job. Stucker apparently has the inside track on the job because of his dual-threat ability, but for the long-term goal, Kubiak should get the go-ahead. However, a senior-laden offense has potential, but that's with a capital "p," no guarantees. The defense might be ok thanks to CBs Nick Oppenneer and Gerard Thomas, but after that, there is very little to work with. Mychal Sisson is an outstanding LB but he loses Ricky Brewer to help him out and the DL is awful. There is no pass-rushing threat and its stunning that this defense got them to a bowl and a win. Even though I am down on rival Colorado, it is always a winnable game, as is Idaho and Weber St., but after that, only three conference games look winnable. Five or six wins seems like an outside shot, and with the down-trodden teams getting better, I'll call for 4 wins, 5 if they get lucky. There's no Gartrell Johnson to bail this team out, unless a star QB emerges out of nowhere.
New Mexico- Well, the Lobos have potential if QB Donovan Porterie can finally put everything together. However, his success depends on the OC (Mike Locksley) allowing him to throw the ball downfield, which he should, especially with Chris Hernandez and Bryant Williams being talented receivers. Rodney Ferguson is a huge loss at TB, but James Wright has the size to fill in nicely. However, he will be pushed by newcomer Desmond Dennis and speedster Terence Brown. The Lobos defense will be fine if the DL can come together with their fine amount of depth. Clint McPeek is a great LB, capable of plugging the hole and chasing down tacklers on the edge, while also being a pass coverage nuisance. If Carmen Messina can produce as a starter like he did in spot action in 2008, this unit will be a strength. The secondary will be a weakness with the loss of both CBs, but Frankie Solomon and Ian Clark are good safeties who should help out enough to keep them from getting burned deep too often. The Lobos should be able to take care of rival New Mexico St., but they better find another win in their non-conference schedule to have any shot at a bowl. I think Texas A&M is a solid candidate for that win, but isn't very likely. I think with road games at San Diego St. and Wyoming, their two most winnable conference games, this looks like a three or four win team if they catch a few breaks.
San Diego St.- It's funny how the Aztecs used to be the most powerful team in the old WAC conference with BYU and others, but now they are struggling to get to their first bowl since 1998. The Aztecs decline wasn't because of any drop in talent in CA, but inept coaching. However, I think 2009 could be the year they turn things around thanks to the talents of do-it-all TB Attiyah Henderson and precocious sophomore QB Ryan Lindley. Lindley has plenty of WRs to throw to, including standout Vicente Brown, but one of the four main targets he has returning needs to become a viable deep threat. The OL returns plenty of experience and I think if Henderson gets enough carries, 2,000 all-purpose yards is well within his reach (1,500 rushing, 500 receiving). On defense, DEs Jonathan Soto and BJ Williams are solid foundations to begin building around, as is the LB corps where the strength is in numbers, not necessarily individual stars. I hope senior Aaron Moore is up to the task of leading the secondary because if he's not, this will be a glaring weakness. Assuming the Aztecs can go to Idaho and win and beat New Mexico St., a 3-1 non-conference record is a good start to the first month of the season. New Mexico and Wyoming aren't the toughest of tests at home and they travel to Colorado St. and UNLV, where a split there and a clean sweep of NM and WY could provide them the opportunity to go bowling. I'm calling for a realistic shot at a bowl bid and 6 wins.
TCU- Well, the Horned Frogs are set on offense despite having a depleted OL. Andy Dalton is a fine QB who can run when necessary and he has a very explosive receiver in Jimmy Young. Assuming versatile Ryan Christian (TB) and WR Bart Johnson can continue to be dependable receiving threats, Dalton's numbers will only improve. Joseph Turner is an outstanding returning TB while Jeremy Kerley is a player who can do lots of things on offense, much like Christian. On defense, TCU had an amazing 2008, but with the return of just 4 starters, those numbers will be hard to duplicate. DE Jerry Hughes is a phenomenal talent, certainly an All-American candidate, but with not a lot of depth returning on the DL, he will have to carry the load. Rafael Priest and Nick Sanders are very capable CBs, along with FS Tejay Johnson, but the strength of the unit will depend on former QB Marcus Jackson's conversion to strong safety. Road trips to Virginia and Clemson will be tough and if the Horned Frogs play well enough, they could go 2-0, but at the same time, going o-for is just as likely. A rivalry game with SMU is no gimme either, while road trips to Air Force and BYU will be tough to overcome if they want to win the conference. I will call for 7-8 wins with 9 being optimistic.
UNLV- The Rebels will go only as far as QB Omar Clayton can take them, which may not be very far. While Clayton doesn't make many mistakes or throw a lot of INTs, he has looked horrible on the road, not counting the win against Arizona St. last season, but the Sun Devils were far overrated anyways. Ryan Wolfe will be Clayton's main target, but his supporting cast, most notably Phillip Payne and Rodelin Anthony, could put up huge numbers with more emphasis put on the passing game. That emphasis may be necessary with the loss of Frank Summers. Summers was a tank who made the big plays and hopefully for UNLV his replacement, CJ Cox, will evolve into that type of player. Cox's evolution will be necessary since incoming freshman Bradley Randle may not have the speed to be an everyday back. The Rebels do have seven returning starters on defense, but considering they allowed over 40 points six times, that may not be a good thing. The DL is experienced, but will have to improve behind the likes of DE Isaako Aaitui and DT Malo Taumua. Jason Beauchamp and Ronnie Paulo are outstanding LBs that will have to play beyond their potential to compensate for the lack of talent in the secondary. The Rebels better hope for a split against Oregon St. and Hawaii at home because a road trip to rival Nevada is an almost certain loss. The conference schedule won't be easy with Utah and BYU coming to town, while a trip to Wyoming and a home game with San Diego St will be make-it-or-break it encounters. I'll call for three wins, four at best.
Utah- Hopefully the Utes enjoyed last season's undefeated season and incredible run to a BCS bid because 2009 will be a rude awakening. Unless Corbin Louks or Terrance Cain assumes the starting role and doesn't split time with the other, this offense will find it hard to click. Louks is a great runner who's never gotten the chance to prove what he can do throwing the ball, so it's really a toss-up for now. Cain should have the edge with his good speed for a QB and coming from a proven JUCO powerhouse, Blinn, in TX. Whoever gets the job will need to get the ball to WRs David Reed and Jerome Brooks who have plenty of potential. The TE position has often been an integral part of the Utes' offense, so Chris Joppru better emerge as a weapon right away. Matt Asiata will be a fine TB, but he needs someone to help him carry the load because they have an experienced OL and could be just as productive on the ground this year as in 2008. Koa Misi is a good DE who better hope his teammates on the DL can produce because if not, he will have too much of a burden to carry. All of the LBs, including Rover Stevenson Sylvester are good at playing both the run and pass and should help a defense that loses both DTs and CBs get throug the rough patches. Whichever players start at CB will be thankful they have Joe Dale and Robert Johnson playing at the safety spots where they were outstanding last season. While the Utes could go 3-1 in their non-conference schedule, home games with Utah St. and Louisville and a road trip to San Jose St. will not be easy. Home games with Air Force and San Diego St. will be the only standing in the Utes way of an upper-division finish because road trips to TCU and BYU are definite losses. I'm calling for seven or eight wins, with an outside shot at nine if they can survive the non-conference slate with just one loss.
Wyoming- If the Cowboys want a proven signal-caller, then Karsten Sween is the way to go, despite a horrific season last year. However, if they want to gamble and find a QB who can run new head coach Dave Christensen's spread offense that was used at Missouri, then Robert Benjamin should start right away. There's no danger in starting the athletic QB against Weber St. and they could pull an upset at Colorado if he has grasped the offense in time. Sadly, the QB position is quite stable compared to the RB position where Darius Terry seems to have won the job by default. Terry does have good speed, but he needs another back to help him out if they are to match the Moore/Seldon combo from last season. The good news for the starting QB, whoever it may be, is that WRs Greg Bolling, David Leonard and Brandon Stewart all have plenty of talent and size while TE Jesson Salyards only adds to the depth of receivers to throw to. On defense, John Fletcher is a good DE and has DT/NG Fred Givens back starting which should help the pass rush (all 3 starters return on the DL as well). Gabe Knapton and Weston Johnson are productive LBs who will have to have outstanding seasons for the Cowboys to have a shot at a bowl game. Tashaun and Marcell Gipson are good CBs and with Chris Prosinski a ball-hawking FS, the secondary could be a relative strength. The defense should put up good numbers, much like it did last season. Winning at Colorado and Florida Atlantic will be important if the Cowboys want to make a bowl push. The same can be said for road games at Colorado St. and San Diego St., which are also winnable. New Mexico and UNLV could be wins at home, but it all depends on the QB. I want to call for 6-7 wins and a bowl game, which is possible, but 4 or 5 is more realistic.
Ok, the Big East is next. I'm off to watch my Yankees and Texas try and win the College World Series against LSU. Take care peeps.
BYU- First off, the Cougars have a great QB but need a lot of help at WR and if they don't start Andrew George at one WR spot, then they deserve to struggle. Dennis Pitta is already an All-American caliber TE, so no need for George there. Also, with George's size, he's better than any of the three prospects ahead of him. Luke Ashworth and O'Neill Chambers are solid players, but McKay Jacobson will really have to prove himself. The bad news for BYU is they lose a ton of starters on the O-line, which could hurt Harvey Unga unless they gel right away. The Cougars return all of their starters on the DL, but unfortunately, only DE Jan Jorgensen is a standout player. Matt Bauman and Coleby Clawson are good LBs, but they will need some help from returning starter Shawn Doman who made a lot of tackles but no real big plays. Scott Johnson is a decent safety, but unless JUCO transfer Brian Logan or Brandon Howard plays well, the secondary will be a major weakness. An early trip to the Lone Star State will be a painful one for the Cougars against Oklahoma, but a home game with Florida St. is winnable and thus, a 3-1 non-conference record is plausible. A road game to UNLV won't be easy, but home games against the other elite teams in the conference, TCU, Utah and Air Force give the Cougars a good shot at winning the conference. A 9 or 10 win season is not out of reach.
Colorado St.- This is going to be an interesting season for the Rams; on the one hand, they have a great OL with no experienced RBs to benefit and two outstanding WRs with no dependable QB to get them the ball. Go figure. Rashaun Greer and Dion Morton are great at going deep or being posession receivers, while Klay Kubiak should be the starting QB because of his familiarity with the offense, but it looks like Grant Stucker will win the job. Stucker apparently has the inside track on the job because of his dual-threat ability, but for the long-term goal, Kubiak should get the go-ahead. However, a senior-laden offense has potential, but that's with a capital "p," no guarantees. The defense might be ok thanks to CBs Nick Oppenneer and Gerard Thomas, but after that, there is very little to work with. Mychal Sisson is an outstanding LB but he loses Ricky Brewer to help him out and the DL is awful. There is no pass-rushing threat and its stunning that this defense got them to a bowl and a win. Even though I am down on rival Colorado, it is always a winnable game, as is Idaho and Weber St., but after that, only three conference games look winnable. Five or six wins seems like an outside shot, and with the down-trodden teams getting better, I'll call for 4 wins, 5 if they get lucky. There's no Gartrell Johnson to bail this team out, unless a star QB emerges out of nowhere.
New Mexico- Well, the Lobos have potential if QB Donovan Porterie can finally put everything together. However, his success depends on the OC (Mike Locksley) allowing him to throw the ball downfield, which he should, especially with Chris Hernandez and Bryant Williams being talented receivers. Rodney Ferguson is a huge loss at TB, but James Wright has the size to fill in nicely. However, he will be pushed by newcomer Desmond Dennis and speedster Terence Brown. The Lobos defense will be fine if the DL can come together with their fine amount of depth. Clint McPeek is a great LB, capable of plugging the hole and chasing down tacklers on the edge, while also being a pass coverage nuisance. If Carmen Messina can produce as a starter like he did in spot action in 2008, this unit will be a strength. The secondary will be a weakness with the loss of both CBs, but Frankie Solomon and Ian Clark are good safeties who should help out enough to keep them from getting burned deep too often. The Lobos should be able to take care of rival New Mexico St., but they better find another win in their non-conference schedule to have any shot at a bowl. I think Texas A&M is a solid candidate for that win, but isn't very likely. I think with road games at San Diego St. and Wyoming, their two most winnable conference games, this looks like a three or four win team if they catch a few breaks.
San Diego St.- It's funny how the Aztecs used to be the most powerful team in the old WAC conference with BYU and others, but now they are struggling to get to their first bowl since 1998. The Aztecs decline wasn't because of any drop in talent in CA, but inept coaching. However, I think 2009 could be the year they turn things around thanks to the talents of do-it-all TB Attiyah Henderson and precocious sophomore QB Ryan Lindley. Lindley has plenty of WRs to throw to, including standout Vicente Brown, but one of the four main targets he has returning needs to become a viable deep threat. The OL returns plenty of experience and I think if Henderson gets enough carries, 2,000 all-purpose yards is well within his reach (1,500 rushing, 500 receiving). On defense, DEs Jonathan Soto and BJ Williams are solid foundations to begin building around, as is the LB corps where the strength is in numbers, not necessarily individual stars. I hope senior Aaron Moore is up to the task of leading the secondary because if he's not, this will be a glaring weakness. Assuming the Aztecs can go to Idaho and win and beat New Mexico St., a 3-1 non-conference record is a good start to the first month of the season. New Mexico and Wyoming aren't the toughest of tests at home and they travel to Colorado St. and UNLV, where a split there and a clean sweep of NM and WY could provide them the opportunity to go bowling. I'm calling for a realistic shot at a bowl bid and 6 wins.
TCU- Well, the Horned Frogs are set on offense despite having a depleted OL. Andy Dalton is a fine QB who can run when necessary and he has a very explosive receiver in Jimmy Young. Assuming versatile Ryan Christian (TB) and WR Bart Johnson can continue to be dependable receiving threats, Dalton's numbers will only improve. Joseph Turner is an outstanding returning TB while Jeremy Kerley is a player who can do lots of things on offense, much like Christian. On defense, TCU had an amazing 2008, but with the return of just 4 starters, those numbers will be hard to duplicate. DE Jerry Hughes is a phenomenal talent, certainly an All-American candidate, but with not a lot of depth returning on the DL, he will have to carry the load. Rafael Priest and Nick Sanders are very capable CBs, along with FS Tejay Johnson, but the strength of the unit will depend on former QB Marcus Jackson's conversion to strong safety. Road trips to Virginia and Clemson will be tough and if the Horned Frogs play well enough, they could go 2-0, but at the same time, going o-for is just as likely. A rivalry game with SMU is no gimme either, while road trips to Air Force and BYU will be tough to overcome if they want to win the conference. I will call for 7-8 wins with 9 being optimistic.
UNLV- The Rebels will go only as far as QB Omar Clayton can take them, which may not be very far. While Clayton doesn't make many mistakes or throw a lot of INTs, he has looked horrible on the road, not counting the win against Arizona St. last season, but the Sun Devils were far overrated anyways. Ryan Wolfe will be Clayton's main target, but his supporting cast, most notably Phillip Payne and Rodelin Anthony, could put up huge numbers with more emphasis put on the passing game. That emphasis may be necessary with the loss of Frank Summers. Summers was a tank who made the big plays and hopefully for UNLV his replacement, CJ Cox, will evolve into that type of player. Cox's evolution will be necessary since incoming freshman Bradley Randle may not have the speed to be an everyday back. The Rebels do have seven returning starters on defense, but considering they allowed over 40 points six times, that may not be a good thing. The DL is experienced, but will have to improve behind the likes of DE Isaako Aaitui and DT Malo Taumua. Jason Beauchamp and Ronnie Paulo are outstanding LBs that will have to play beyond their potential to compensate for the lack of talent in the secondary. The Rebels better hope for a split against Oregon St. and Hawaii at home because a road trip to rival Nevada is an almost certain loss. The conference schedule won't be easy with Utah and BYU coming to town, while a trip to Wyoming and a home game with San Diego St will be make-it-or-break it encounters. I'll call for three wins, four at best.
Utah- Hopefully the Utes enjoyed last season's undefeated season and incredible run to a BCS bid because 2009 will be a rude awakening. Unless Corbin Louks or Terrance Cain assumes the starting role and doesn't split time with the other, this offense will find it hard to click. Louks is a great runner who's never gotten the chance to prove what he can do throwing the ball, so it's really a toss-up for now. Cain should have the edge with his good speed for a QB and coming from a proven JUCO powerhouse, Blinn, in TX. Whoever gets the job will need to get the ball to WRs David Reed and Jerome Brooks who have plenty of potential. The TE position has often been an integral part of the Utes' offense, so Chris Joppru better emerge as a weapon right away. Matt Asiata will be a fine TB, but he needs someone to help him carry the load because they have an experienced OL and could be just as productive on the ground this year as in 2008. Koa Misi is a good DE who better hope his teammates on the DL can produce because if not, he will have too much of a burden to carry. All of the LBs, including Rover Stevenson Sylvester are good at playing both the run and pass and should help a defense that loses both DTs and CBs get throug the rough patches. Whichever players start at CB will be thankful they have Joe Dale and Robert Johnson playing at the safety spots where they were outstanding last season. While the Utes could go 3-1 in their non-conference schedule, home games with Utah St. and Louisville and a road trip to San Jose St. will not be easy. Home games with Air Force and San Diego St. will be the only standing in the Utes way of an upper-division finish because road trips to TCU and BYU are definite losses. I'm calling for seven or eight wins, with an outside shot at nine if they can survive the non-conference slate with just one loss.
Wyoming- If the Cowboys want a proven signal-caller, then Karsten Sween is the way to go, despite a horrific season last year. However, if they want to gamble and find a QB who can run new head coach Dave Christensen's spread offense that was used at Missouri, then Robert Benjamin should start right away. There's no danger in starting the athletic QB against Weber St. and they could pull an upset at Colorado if he has grasped the offense in time. Sadly, the QB position is quite stable compared to the RB position where Darius Terry seems to have won the job by default. Terry does have good speed, but he needs another back to help him out if they are to match the Moore/Seldon combo from last season. The good news for the starting QB, whoever it may be, is that WRs Greg Bolling, David Leonard and Brandon Stewart all have plenty of talent and size while TE Jesson Salyards only adds to the depth of receivers to throw to. On defense, John Fletcher is a good DE and has DT/NG Fred Givens back starting which should help the pass rush (all 3 starters return on the DL as well). Gabe Knapton and Weston Johnson are productive LBs who will have to have outstanding seasons for the Cowboys to have a shot at a bowl game. Tashaun and Marcell Gipson are good CBs and with Chris Prosinski a ball-hawking FS, the secondary could be a relative strength. The defense should put up good numbers, much like it did last season. Winning at Colorado and Florida Atlantic will be important if the Cowboys want to make a bowl push. The same can be said for road games at Colorado St. and San Diego St., which are also winnable. New Mexico and UNLV could be wins at home, but it all depends on the QB. I want to call for 6-7 wins and a bowl game, which is possible, but 4 or 5 is more realistic.
Ok, the Big East is next. I'm off to watch my Yankees and Texas try and win the College World Series against LSU. Take care peeps.
Monday, June 22, 2009
Div I-A Independents
Well this isn't a very big conference, or even a conference at all for that matter. All of these teams have a long history of playing one another, but Army skips Notre Dame once again this year. Ok, let's just get to the teams shall we...
Army- The Black Knights (Cadets, whatever) have an interesting situation on their hands when it comes to the offense; first off, they have two good returning QBs and a productive WR who might play mostly at slotback. Jameson Carter, the leading receiver from last year returns and could have 1,000 yard potential as a combined runner/receiver at SB. His speed will surely open up holes on the inside for the new FB who has the tough task of replacing Collin Mooney. Patrick Mealy and Ian Smith also return at SB and if the Knights can focus on not just using their FB, this team could put up numbers on the ground similar to the Cadets of Bob Sutton in the 90s. At WR, Carter and Damion Hunter could also do big things, but converted OT Ali Villanueva is a prospect who must mature quickly if he is to be used effectively. The OL will suffer thanks to heavy losses, but on defense, seven returning starters ensures at least modest efficiency. On the DL, Joshua McNary and Victor Ugenyi should improve upon last year's impressive numbers while any support from the rest of their fellow D-lineman could make for a strong pass rush. Stephen Anderson is a stud at LB, but the secondary is the strongest section of this defense. At CB, Jordan Trimble and Mario Hill did not have impressive numbers in terms of INTs, but that's because the number of high-octane passing attacks they faced was limited. At safety, Donovan Travis is a solid performer who should benefit from the line's effective pass rush. The schedule is not too hard, but six or seven wins is a big step for a team that had just three wins in 2008. Four wins seems to be most realistic, but they could surprise some teams.
Navy- Who knows if the Midshipmen will be able to replace SB Shun White or FB Eric Kettani, but assuming they can, since they always do, Navy will once again have a fine running attack to help them through a rough schedule. Ricky Dobbs should slide in nicely at QB, but he has no real threats offensively, including Mario Washington, a short WR who will have his work cut out for him. The SBs will be very hit-or-miss, but Bobby Doyle showed some potential in very limited action. The DL is very experienced and could produce some big numbers, but the pass rush will have to improve immensely for the defense to hang tough against the likes of Pitt (road), Air Force, SMU (road), Wake Forest, Notre Dame (road) and even Hawaii (road). Now, none of those teams are big-time offenses, but they have plenty of potential to blow out the Midshipmen if things go wrong early. Ram Vela may actually be Navy's best pass-rusher at LB but the secondary is in danger because the only position with any real depth is FS where Wyatt Middleton and Emmett Merchant patrol. Blake Carter has potential at CB and Kevin Edwards, with his good speed and great size (6'2" for a CB), could provide just enough coverage ability between the two of them. I really don't see Navy getting past four or five wins with a tough schedule, but they have been known to replace good RBs when they depart without harm. However, Temple, Air Force, and road games with Rice and SMU should ultimately determine their bowl eligibility.
Notre Dame- The Irish are a puzzling bunch. QB Jimmy Clausen is a promising player who showed a lot of potential last year, but he needs to cut down on his INTs big time. The RB situation is fine, but between Armando Allen, Robert Hughes and James Aldridge, one of them needs to emerge as the feature back. The ideal would be have two very productive TBs, much like the late 80s and early 90s during their heyday under Lou Holtz. Golden Tate and Michael Floyd are outstanding WRs, but that may just be because of Clausen's accuracy because Tate disappeared during a few games last season (Stanford, Navy, Washington and USC). Kyle Rudolph is also a productive TE and should improve upon '08s numbers. The OL is also outstanding, which could help one of the three RBs have their breakout season. The defense should be ok despite losing almost half of their starters, and ironically, the best defensive lineman is DT Ethan Johnson, who only had limited playing time. Brian Smith is a fine LB, but the key player to watch will be true freshman Manti Te'o, who is expected to be the next big thing. The secondary should do well with a lot of depth returning, but that's only if Darrin Walls steps into his CB role and produces right away. If not, I would hope Charlie Weis has the good sense to move Robert Blanton to starter. The schedule is pretty favorable, mostly because the Irish keep traditional rivals on their schedule who regularly have far less talent on their respective rosters (Michigan St., Purdue, Navy, Stanford). A home game with Nevada to open the season shouldn't be taken as an easy win, nor should a home game with BC or Washington. I think the Irish could get to eight or nine wins, but that's the max. I'll say eight, but six wouldn't be a surprise.
Ok, so the WAC will be coming up whenever I get the chance. Take care everyone.
Army- The Black Knights (Cadets, whatever) have an interesting situation on their hands when it comes to the offense; first off, they have two good returning QBs and a productive WR who might play mostly at slotback. Jameson Carter, the leading receiver from last year returns and could have 1,000 yard potential as a combined runner/receiver at SB. His speed will surely open up holes on the inside for the new FB who has the tough task of replacing Collin Mooney. Patrick Mealy and Ian Smith also return at SB and if the Knights can focus on not just using their FB, this team could put up numbers on the ground similar to the Cadets of Bob Sutton in the 90s. At WR, Carter and Damion Hunter could also do big things, but converted OT Ali Villanueva is a prospect who must mature quickly if he is to be used effectively. The OL will suffer thanks to heavy losses, but on defense, seven returning starters ensures at least modest efficiency. On the DL, Joshua McNary and Victor Ugenyi should improve upon last year's impressive numbers while any support from the rest of their fellow D-lineman could make for a strong pass rush. Stephen Anderson is a stud at LB, but the secondary is the strongest section of this defense. At CB, Jordan Trimble and Mario Hill did not have impressive numbers in terms of INTs, but that's because the number of high-octane passing attacks they faced was limited. At safety, Donovan Travis is a solid performer who should benefit from the line's effective pass rush. The schedule is not too hard, but six or seven wins is a big step for a team that had just three wins in 2008. Four wins seems to be most realistic, but they could surprise some teams.
Navy- Who knows if the Midshipmen will be able to replace SB Shun White or FB Eric Kettani, but assuming they can, since they always do, Navy will once again have a fine running attack to help them through a rough schedule. Ricky Dobbs should slide in nicely at QB, but he has no real threats offensively, including Mario Washington, a short WR who will have his work cut out for him. The SBs will be very hit-or-miss, but Bobby Doyle showed some potential in very limited action. The DL is very experienced and could produce some big numbers, but the pass rush will have to improve immensely for the defense to hang tough against the likes of Pitt (road), Air Force, SMU (road), Wake Forest, Notre Dame (road) and even Hawaii (road). Now, none of those teams are big-time offenses, but they have plenty of potential to blow out the Midshipmen if things go wrong early. Ram Vela may actually be Navy's best pass-rusher at LB but the secondary is in danger because the only position with any real depth is FS where Wyatt Middleton and Emmett Merchant patrol. Blake Carter has potential at CB and Kevin Edwards, with his good speed and great size (6'2" for a CB), could provide just enough coverage ability between the two of them. I really don't see Navy getting past four or five wins with a tough schedule, but they have been known to replace good RBs when they depart without harm. However, Temple, Air Force, and road games with Rice and SMU should ultimately determine their bowl eligibility.
Notre Dame- The Irish are a puzzling bunch. QB Jimmy Clausen is a promising player who showed a lot of potential last year, but he needs to cut down on his INTs big time. The RB situation is fine, but between Armando Allen, Robert Hughes and James Aldridge, one of them needs to emerge as the feature back. The ideal would be have two very productive TBs, much like the late 80s and early 90s during their heyday under Lou Holtz. Golden Tate and Michael Floyd are outstanding WRs, but that may just be because of Clausen's accuracy because Tate disappeared during a few games last season (Stanford, Navy, Washington and USC). Kyle Rudolph is also a productive TE and should improve upon '08s numbers. The OL is also outstanding, which could help one of the three RBs have their breakout season. The defense should be ok despite losing almost half of their starters, and ironically, the best defensive lineman is DT Ethan Johnson, who only had limited playing time. Brian Smith is a fine LB, but the key player to watch will be true freshman Manti Te'o, who is expected to be the next big thing. The secondary should do well with a lot of depth returning, but that's only if Darrin Walls steps into his CB role and produces right away. If not, I would hope Charlie Weis has the good sense to move Robert Blanton to starter. The schedule is pretty favorable, mostly because the Irish keep traditional rivals on their schedule who regularly have far less talent on their respective rosters (Michigan St., Purdue, Navy, Stanford). A home game with Nevada to open the season shouldn't be taken as an easy win, nor should a home game with BC or Washington. I think the Irish could get to eight or nine wins, but that's the max. I'll say eight, but six wouldn't be a surprise.
Ok, so the WAC will be coming up whenever I get the chance. Take care everyone.
Sunday, June 21, 2009
C-USA Western Division
Well, this division had more offensive firepower than anyone except for the Big 12 South. Rice, Tulsa, Houston and even the lowly SMU Mustangs had a multitude of offensive stars who made every week an adventure. The question is, who will rise to the top this year since the Owls lose Dillard and Clement, Tulsa loses three offensive weapons and Houston has heavy losses on defense. Tulane is another wildcard that just can't seem to escape the basement, despite having good players in recent years. Let's get to the analysis
Houston- The Cougars have all the tools on offense with Case Keenum at QB, who threw for more than 5000 yards and 44 TDs while being productive on the ground as well. With six experienced and talented receivers, including superstars Patrick Edwards and Tyrone Carrier, Keenum's productivity should stay at 4,500-5,000 yards. TB Bryce Beall should also be a star, but he may have to run between the tackles this year since the OL loses both starting tackles. The defense is not as strong because they only return four starters. Despite returning two solid LBs in CJ Cavness and Marcus McGraw the DL will struggle a lot, and in return the secondary may get hit pretty hard. Brandon Brinkley is a very good cover corner, but considering this wasn't the best defense last year, things will go downhill fast. Hopefully for them the Cougars will go 2-2 in non-conference, but road games with Mississippi St. and Oklahoma St. and a home game with Texas Tech could easily produce just one win (against Northwestern St). Houston could get to six or wins if the defense produces even a little bit, but road tilts in conference with UTEP and Tulsa could cause them to fall below the even mark. I'll say six wins, seven max.
Rice- Very few teams in the country were hit harder by the NFL draft and players leaving early than Rice. QB Chase Clement, WR Jarrett Dillard and TE/HB James Casey were outstanding last season and provide huge voids to fill. I know Nick Fanuzzi is the front-runner at QB, being an Alabama transfer and all, but if Rice wants to return to a bowl game, they will go with John Thomas Shepherd. No matter who starts, the person will have some weapons in WR Toren Dixon and Corbin Smiter, with Patrick Randolph an up-and-comer. The RB situation is highly unsettled since CJ Ugokwe decided not to return, but TB Shane Turner with his 4.4 speed could be a nice addition if given the chance. However, I think Turner should alternate carries with the veteran Marcus Knox who has never really gotten a chance to show his potential. The OL will need to gel quickly after losing three starters if the offense is to be productive. The defense was never on track last year, but with nine starters back, including productive DEs Scott Solomon and Cheta Ozougwu, who could have big-time seasons. The LB corps returns intact, but only Terrance Garmon was of note last season, so they will have to step it up this fall for the D to be successful. Despite losing a decent CB, the secondary should do fine thanks to Andrew Sendejo, one of the conference's best free safeties and CB Chris Jammer, who will only get better since he is just a sophomore. A win against Vanderbilt in week 4 will be important to Rice if they either want to get to 2-2, or capture their first win of the season since they start off on the road three times. The conference schedule is manageable with Tulsa and UTEP winnable but tough games at home. However, as much as I want to say they get to .500, 4-5 wins is more realistic.
SMU- There is a lot of confusion over who should start at TB for the Mustangs, but once that is settled, the offense will be spectacular. QB Bo Levi Mitchell is a great young QB who should improve his TD-to-INT ratio with experience. Mitchell should count his lucky stars he has potential All-Americans in Aldrick Robinson and Emmanuel Sanders returning at WR, while Cole Beasley and Terrance Wilkerson should be contributors as well. I think Shawnbrey McNeal should start at RB since he was a former track champ and has good speed, but Chris Butler could easily win the job. I may be wrong in every possible way, but I think the secondary was only as bad as it was because they had to defend the passing attacks of UTEP, Rice, Texas Tech, Tulsa and Houston over the course of the season. With another year playing together, CBs Bryan McCann and Derrius Bell should show significant improvement. The LBs are extremely good and underrated with Youri Yenga and Pete Fleps returning. If Texas A&M transfer Chase Kennemer is a solid LB, then this could be a real strength. While the DL is not a fearsome foursome, the non-conference provides a chance at 3-1 going to Wazzou and facing Navy at home. While a road game at TCU is daunting, never underestimate the upset potential of a rivalry game. I see as many as seven or eight wins if they can win at Washington St. and hold course against Rice and UTEP at home in conference. I'll call for seven on the safe side.
Tulane- If early projections are right and the Green Wave are reportedly moving Joe Kemp to starting QB, then this season could be a disaster. Kevin Moore may have had a horrible TD-to-INT ratio but he needed more time and better weapons to deliver. Having RB Andre Anderson back and healthy could only help matters as he's a 1,500 yard rusher easy, but he will need a backup to emerge since he can't carry the offensive load by himself. Whoever starts at QB may not have any superstars to throw to, but freshman DJ Banks has good speed and a nice vertical and should make waves. Alan Mitchell and Jeremy Williams are also good WRs and TE Cody Banks is a good weapon to have at 6-4 in the redzone (now if he can only produce TDs). The defense will need at least one playmaker to establish himself if Tulane is to finish out of last place in the west. The DL returns three starters but no one has any standout potential or statistics to point to a big 2009 season. The LB corps is depleted, but Travis Burks showed promise last season. FS Corey Sonnier and CB Charles Harris have potential as coverage guys and if they can continue to develop, the secondary may not be so bad. The non-conference schedule produces two sure losses (BYU and LSU), but McNeese St. and at Army are highly-winnable. The conference schedule is brutal as road games with Rice and UCF may be there best bet for wins, but a home game against Marshall is there for the taking too. However, as much as I think this team could improve, they may see 2 wins yet again, 3 at most.
Tulsa- We will know for sure by mid-season if Tulsa's success last year was predicated on the OL dominating almost every opponent, or if the scheme was near perfection. Tulsa only gets 2 O-lineman back, but if QB Jacob Bower is as good as advertised, then the offense will keep on rolling. RB Jamad Williams has breakout potential and with WRs AJ Whitmore and Demaris Johnson also able to produce on the ground, the running game should flourish once more. At WR there is a ton of talent, including Johnson, Whitmore, Trae Johnson and Slick Shelley, who all could improve upon last year's numbers. Charles Clay, at FB, is another threat both running and receiving, so it will be hard to stop this offense. The defense was as good as it had to be last season and should be even better with eight starters returning. In the secondary CBs John Destin and Kenny Sims were outstanding against some great passing offenses while safeties Charles Davis and incumbent starter DeAundre Brown (2 INTs) were very productive. The LBs are among the best in C-USA and once again should do well, especially with all the weapons the rest of the division lest on offense. The D-line produced at times last season, but a better pass rush would help them win the division. The Golden Hurricane may have to hope for a 2-2 non-conference record since they play at Oklahoma and against Boise St. Facing UTEP and Southern Miss on the road in conference could be what costs them the division title as a Nov. 7th date with Houston looms large. I see as many as eight wins, but seven looks to be the right amount.
UTEP- As with many teams in the west, a good running game needs to be established for the Miners to have an explosive offense. Daniel Palmer seems to be the RB of the future, but Vernon Frazier had the best numbers last season while Donald Buckram isn't giving up the starting spot so easily. Assuming one or two good runners can emerge and produce, QB Trevor Vittatoe will have an outstanding season. With outstanding receivers Jeff Moturi and Kris Adams returning and capable backups, the passing game will flourish. Vittatoe should also have good productivity with four starters back on the O-line and QB/WR James Thomas II should be a nice wild-card player who can shake things up at any time. The Miners are just like Tulsa in the fact they have plenty of experience back on the D-line but no real pass rush to speak of. That will have to change immediately. The secondary could be a real strength with Melvin Stephenson, Cornelius Brown and Clarence Ward all good cover corners who can make the big plays at any moment. Hopefully freshman safety DeShawn Grayson can step up and if he does, it will come down to Braxton Amy coming back from injury to make this an outstanding unit. The LBs are inexperienced, but I think can produce if given the chance, especially with Da'Mon Cromartie-Smith as a vocal leader. Losing Jose Martinez will be a big blow at K, but apparently he has a strong leg with a 72 yd FG in the spring according to Phil Steele. The schedule should provide a 2-2 start out of conference, unless the Miners pull an upset against Kansas in El Paso. Beating Houston and Tulsa at home will be crucial to taking the division title, as will a road tilt with SMU, who I consider the biggest dark-horse in the conference. Anyways, I'll call for 8-9 wins, with 10 being an outside shot if everything goes well.
Well, I'll try and get to the MWC tomorrow and maybe even the independents later this evening. Both sets are very intriguing with Navy and Army both running the option now, which should increase wins for the lackluster Cadets. I like the depth of the MWC, even the supposed bottom-feeders. The league was so top-heavy last year with BYU, TCU and Utah that everyone just assumed the rest of the conference wasn't worth anything. However, as you'll see soon, that wasn't the case.
Houston- The Cougars have all the tools on offense with Case Keenum at QB, who threw for more than 5000 yards and 44 TDs while being productive on the ground as well. With six experienced and talented receivers, including superstars Patrick Edwards and Tyrone Carrier, Keenum's productivity should stay at 4,500-5,000 yards. TB Bryce Beall should also be a star, but he may have to run between the tackles this year since the OL loses both starting tackles. The defense is not as strong because they only return four starters. Despite returning two solid LBs in CJ Cavness and Marcus McGraw the DL will struggle a lot, and in return the secondary may get hit pretty hard. Brandon Brinkley is a very good cover corner, but considering this wasn't the best defense last year, things will go downhill fast. Hopefully for them the Cougars will go 2-2 in non-conference, but road games with Mississippi St. and Oklahoma St. and a home game with Texas Tech could easily produce just one win (against Northwestern St). Houston could get to six or wins if the defense produces even a little bit, but road tilts in conference with UTEP and Tulsa could cause them to fall below the even mark. I'll say six wins, seven max.
Rice- Very few teams in the country were hit harder by the NFL draft and players leaving early than Rice. QB Chase Clement, WR Jarrett Dillard and TE/HB James Casey were outstanding last season and provide huge voids to fill. I know Nick Fanuzzi is the front-runner at QB, being an Alabama transfer and all, but if Rice wants to return to a bowl game, they will go with John Thomas Shepherd. No matter who starts, the person will have some weapons in WR Toren Dixon and Corbin Smiter, with Patrick Randolph an up-and-comer. The RB situation is highly unsettled since CJ Ugokwe decided not to return, but TB Shane Turner with his 4.4 speed could be a nice addition if given the chance. However, I think Turner should alternate carries with the veteran Marcus Knox who has never really gotten a chance to show his potential. The OL will need to gel quickly after losing three starters if the offense is to be productive. The defense was never on track last year, but with nine starters back, including productive DEs Scott Solomon and Cheta Ozougwu, who could have big-time seasons. The LB corps returns intact, but only Terrance Garmon was of note last season, so they will have to step it up this fall for the D to be successful. Despite losing a decent CB, the secondary should do fine thanks to Andrew Sendejo, one of the conference's best free safeties and CB Chris Jammer, who will only get better since he is just a sophomore. A win against Vanderbilt in week 4 will be important to Rice if they either want to get to 2-2, or capture their first win of the season since they start off on the road three times. The conference schedule is manageable with Tulsa and UTEP winnable but tough games at home. However, as much as I want to say they get to .500, 4-5 wins is more realistic.
SMU- There is a lot of confusion over who should start at TB for the Mustangs, but once that is settled, the offense will be spectacular. QB Bo Levi Mitchell is a great young QB who should improve his TD-to-INT ratio with experience. Mitchell should count his lucky stars he has potential All-Americans in Aldrick Robinson and Emmanuel Sanders returning at WR, while Cole Beasley and Terrance Wilkerson should be contributors as well. I think Shawnbrey McNeal should start at RB since he was a former track champ and has good speed, but Chris Butler could easily win the job. I may be wrong in every possible way, but I think the secondary was only as bad as it was because they had to defend the passing attacks of UTEP, Rice, Texas Tech, Tulsa and Houston over the course of the season. With another year playing together, CBs Bryan McCann and Derrius Bell should show significant improvement. The LBs are extremely good and underrated with Youri Yenga and Pete Fleps returning. If Texas A&M transfer Chase Kennemer is a solid LB, then this could be a real strength. While the DL is not a fearsome foursome, the non-conference provides a chance at 3-1 going to Wazzou and facing Navy at home. While a road game at TCU is daunting, never underestimate the upset potential of a rivalry game. I see as many as seven or eight wins if they can win at Washington St. and hold course against Rice and UTEP at home in conference. I'll call for seven on the safe side.
Tulane- If early projections are right and the Green Wave are reportedly moving Joe Kemp to starting QB, then this season could be a disaster. Kevin Moore may have had a horrible TD-to-INT ratio but he needed more time and better weapons to deliver. Having RB Andre Anderson back and healthy could only help matters as he's a 1,500 yard rusher easy, but he will need a backup to emerge since he can't carry the offensive load by himself. Whoever starts at QB may not have any superstars to throw to, but freshman DJ Banks has good speed and a nice vertical and should make waves. Alan Mitchell and Jeremy Williams are also good WRs and TE Cody Banks is a good weapon to have at 6-4 in the redzone (now if he can only produce TDs). The defense will need at least one playmaker to establish himself if Tulane is to finish out of last place in the west. The DL returns three starters but no one has any standout potential or statistics to point to a big 2009 season. The LB corps is depleted, but Travis Burks showed promise last season. FS Corey Sonnier and CB Charles Harris have potential as coverage guys and if they can continue to develop, the secondary may not be so bad. The non-conference schedule produces two sure losses (BYU and LSU), but McNeese St. and at Army are highly-winnable. The conference schedule is brutal as road games with Rice and UCF may be there best bet for wins, but a home game against Marshall is there for the taking too. However, as much as I think this team could improve, they may see 2 wins yet again, 3 at most.
Tulsa- We will know for sure by mid-season if Tulsa's success last year was predicated on the OL dominating almost every opponent, or if the scheme was near perfection. Tulsa only gets 2 O-lineman back, but if QB Jacob Bower is as good as advertised, then the offense will keep on rolling. RB Jamad Williams has breakout potential and with WRs AJ Whitmore and Demaris Johnson also able to produce on the ground, the running game should flourish once more. At WR there is a ton of talent, including Johnson, Whitmore, Trae Johnson and Slick Shelley, who all could improve upon last year's numbers. Charles Clay, at FB, is another threat both running and receiving, so it will be hard to stop this offense. The defense was as good as it had to be last season and should be even better with eight starters returning. In the secondary CBs John Destin and Kenny Sims were outstanding against some great passing offenses while safeties Charles Davis and incumbent starter DeAundre Brown (2 INTs) were very productive. The LBs are among the best in C-USA and once again should do well, especially with all the weapons the rest of the division lest on offense. The D-line produced at times last season, but a better pass rush would help them win the division. The Golden Hurricane may have to hope for a 2-2 non-conference record since they play at Oklahoma and against Boise St. Facing UTEP and Southern Miss on the road in conference could be what costs them the division title as a Nov. 7th date with Houston looms large. I see as many as eight wins, but seven looks to be the right amount.
UTEP- As with many teams in the west, a good running game needs to be established for the Miners to have an explosive offense. Daniel Palmer seems to be the RB of the future, but Vernon Frazier had the best numbers last season while Donald Buckram isn't giving up the starting spot so easily. Assuming one or two good runners can emerge and produce, QB Trevor Vittatoe will have an outstanding season. With outstanding receivers Jeff Moturi and Kris Adams returning and capable backups, the passing game will flourish. Vittatoe should also have good productivity with four starters back on the O-line and QB/WR James Thomas II should be a nice wild-card player who can shake things up at any time. The Miners are just like Tulsa in the fact they have plenty of experience back on the D-line but no real pass rush to speak of. That will have to change immediately. The secondary could be a real strength with Melvin Stephenson, Cornelius Brown and Clarence Ward all good cover corners who can make the big plays at any moment. Hopefully freshman safety DeShawn Grayson can step up and if he does, it will come down to Braxton Amy coming back from injury to make this an outstanding unit. The LBs are inexperienced, but I think can produce if given the chance, especially with Da'Mon Cromartie-Smith as a vocal leader. Losing Jose Martinez will be a big blow at K, but apparently he has a strong leg with a 72 yd FG in the spring according to Phil Steele. The schedule should provide a 2-2 start out of conference, unless the Miners pull an upset against Kansas in El Paso. Beating Houston and Tulsa at home will be crucial to taking the division title, as will a road tilt with SMU, who I consider the biggest dark-horse in the conference. Anyways, I'll call for 8-9 wins, with 10 being an outside shot if everything goes well.
Well, I'll try and get to the MWC tomorrow and maybe even the independents later this evening. Both sets are very intriguing with Navy and Army both running the option now, which should increase wins for the lackluster Cadets. I like the depth of the MWC, even the supposed bottom-feeders. The league was so top-heavy last year with BYU, TCU and Utah that everyone just assumed the rest of the conference wasn't worth anything. However, as you'll see soon, that wasn't the case.
Friday, June 19, 2009
C-USA Eastern Division
This is one conference that had some teams play well above their potential (Rice, ECU, Tulsa) and others that fell far below expectations (SMU, Houston, Southern Miss). Now, in 2009, there really is no clear-cut favorite because a lot of the big guns left school early as did their QBs, but other key components return for certain programs. Anyhow, without a dominant recent program like Troy in the Sun Belt and Boise St. in the WAC, this year's title race is wide open.
East Carolina- The defense is the main place to start here with superstar FS Van Eskridge and with a little help from CBs Dekota Marshall and Travis Simmons, this could be one of the country's best secondaries. Nick Simmons and Jeremy Chambliss are also quality LBs and with an experienced DL returning, ECU will have an outstanding defense. DL Jay Ross and CJ Wilson will probably make All C-USA if they stay healthy and the rest will be up to the offense. The offense needs to stay on track with a challenging schedule that includes at WV, UNC and home to VA Tech. While they could obviously win all three games, two wins there is more reasonable. Patrick Pinkney is an experienced QB who should do very well, especially with Darryl Freeney, Jamar Bryant and Dwayne Harris all quality WRs. If RB Norman Whitley remains suspended it may not matter thanks to Dominique Lindsay and Brandon Jackson, a very talented transfer frm Kentucky. The OL returns intact which means ECU could start well and gain momentum early. ECU could get to 9 or 10 wins by the end of the season, but I see a C-USA that is far too challenging colliding with a brutal non-conference schedule as well. I'll go with 8 wins.
Marshall- The Thundering Herd barely lost three games last year and could have easily been bowl-eligible, but they will only go as far as their QBs take them. Whether it's Brian Anderson or Mark Cann, whoever wins the job will have All-American candidate Cody Slate at TE to throw to. Darius Marshall will need to continue his productivity at TB and if he can, the offense should be ok. However, the Herd will need someone to take the pressure off of Slate and that man could be WR Bryant Milligan. If not Milligan, then JUCO transfer Charles Walker or Courtney Edmondson will need to step up their game. Mario Harvey and Brandon Burns should be the leaders of the defense at LB, but the efficiency of the defense will depend upon starting CBs DeQuan Bembry and TJ Drakeford. Each player had 1 INT apiece and that just will not do in C-USA. Only 2 picks from your starting CBs is awful. The DEs are also outstanding so the Herd should be an improving team and will only be helped by having very dependable players at K and P also returning. The non-conference schedule isn't too brutal, but home games with SMU and UAB will determine whether they go past the break even point. I'll call for 6 wins.
Memphis- This must have been the hot city to go to two years ago because the Tigers are acquiring a lot of depth at already strong positions thanks to transfers. Miami (FL) transfers Jermaine McKenzie (WR) and DajLeon Farr (TE) will arrive to help out the fantastic duo of Duke Calhoun and Carlos Singleton. Singleton has the potential to be a dominant wideout ala Jarrett Dillard at Rice, but he hasn't had that one magical season yet. He may have that in 2009 thanks to Arkelon Hall returning, who had ok numbers, but will need to do much better with a talented receiving duo. This may be hard because only one OL returns and not just Hall will be affected, but Curtis Steele, who had a 1,000 yard season last year. If the running game can't produce, a very talented offense may go in a tailspin. The Tigers will get help in the secondary from Auburn transfer DeRon Furr and they may need it because CBs DA Griffin and Deante Lamar had less productivity than Marshall's starting CBs (just one INT here total). The good news is all of the LBs return and Derrick Odom comes in from LSU to help bolster the group. Memphis is yet another team I see going 2-2 in non-conference play from this division, but the road game at Middle Tennessee is not a given. The best Memphis can hope for is 5 wins, maybe 6, if they pull off a road upset. However, I see 4 most realistic, 3 if they can't get by MT.
Southern Miss- The Golden Eagles have a very healthy offense returning, but they do lose one key starter in TE Shawn Nelson. That could be a key loss if DeAndre Brown isn't healthy after his horrific bowl injury. However, Brown should be fine, and with Nelson gone, WRs Freddie Parham and Gerald Baptiste should produce good numbers, especially with Brown drawing double-coverage from other teams. With the entire OL returning, QB Austin Davis should keep his impressive numbers and stud RB Damion Fletcher could easily top 1500-1700 yards and have good receiving numbers. The Eagles have a very good defense returning, and may want to consider adding a Rover position instead of a 3rd LB to get Justin Wilson into the lineup more since he had 4 INTs with limited amount of starts. Wilson could be backing up Chico Hunter and besides those two, the secondary is outstanding thanks to CBs CJ Bailey and Andre Watson. That will help a lot in the pass-happy, high-octane C-USA. The DL is deep and talented, but two new starting LBs will have to produce for the Eagles to improve on their 7 wins from last year. A road game at Houston and the finale at ECU will go a long way in determining the conference champ, but I see ECU coming through in that game. However, if Souther Miss takes care of business in their other conference games, they may still come away as Eastern Division champs. UVa, Kansas and Louisville are not easy non-conference games, but the Eagles could come away 3-0, the biggie will be Kansas. However, I call for a slip up or two and for ECU to win the East division, which means 8 wins for Southern Miss.
UAB- I haven't seen a team that relies on one player this much since Ramon Flanigan was playing at SMU in the early-to-mid 90s. QB Joe Webb has one last shot at leading his Blazers to a bowl game and this may be his best shot with a deep, but not spectacular group of receivers coming back and potential 1,000 yard rusher Rashaud Slaughter. The key for Webb will be making plays with his feet and getting the ball to do-it-all WR Frantrell Forrest who could surpass 1500 yards all purpose with his KRs added in. Since the entire offense returns, all 11 starters, the entire unit can only get better. The Blazers have some solid players on defense, but no one returning who will scare opposing offenses. The DL returns intact, but that area needs a lot of improvement for this team to be successful. Terrell Springs was underwhelming at CB last year, but Brandon Carlisle did well in limited action, so if the pass D can hold up in a few games, UAB may pull an upset. The LBs are also hit-or-miss but I like this team's potential. Webb can only improve on a 10-to-16 TD-to-INT ratio and Rice and SMU are winnable home games to start the season. If they can beat Troy or Texas A&M on the road in the next two, then a .500 season is not too far-fetched. While they will probably get 4 wins, 5 at most, I see a bowl-eligibility season coming if the team gels quickly.
UCF- With the Knights losing QB Michael Greco due to his move to DB, the offense may be in good shape since incumbent Rob Calabrese won't have to worry about being pulled for a more experienced player. Calabrese will need WR Brian Watters or Kamar Aiken to step up to be really efficient through the air. This is even more important because the RBs are ok, but not necessarily reliable. Brynn Harvey and Ronnie Weaver are the RBs right now, but one needs to emerge as a feature back. UCF doesn't need another Kevin Smith, although that certainly wouldn't hurt matters, but just one player who can take the bulk of the carries and gain 1,000 yards would work wonders. Having a patchwork OL with two possible freshman starting won't help. DEs Jarvig Geathers and Bruce Miller are outstanding DEs and they will need to keep up their impressive sack totals because UCF loses a lot of experience in the secondary. While FS Derrick Hallman may be a possible all-conference performer, he can't patrol the whole secondary. Lawrence Young and Chance Henderson are two dominant LBs, so the bulk of the Knights' success will depend on their front seven. Losing a great KR in Joe Burnett will also hurt UCF. Unless UCF pulls an upset against Miami (FL) they may have five certain losses because road games at Southern Miss, ECU and Texas and a homecoming date with Houston are very tough tasks. I hate to be negative because George O'Leary has been successful here, but I see 3-4 wins max. Hey, every conference has to have a bottom-feeder.
Hopefully in a few hours I will get to the west division, where the real meat-and-potatoes lies. That's where all the high-powered offenses really come into play and a ton of exciting games await anyone who has CSTV where their games are usually featured.
East Carolina- The defense is the main place to start here with superstar FS Van Eskridge and with a little help from CBs Dekota Marshall and Travis Simmons, this could be one of the country's best secondaries. Nick Simmons and Jeremy Chambliss are also quality LBs and with an experienced DL returning, ECU will have an outstanding defense. DL Jay Ross and CJ Wilson will probably make All C-USA if they stay healthy and the rest will be up to the offense. The offense needs to stay on track with a challenging schedule that includes at WV, UNC and home to VA Tech. While they could obviously win all three games, two wins there is more reasonable. Patrick Pinkney is an experienced QB who should do very well, especially with Darryl Freeney, Jamar Bryant and Dwayne Harris all quality WRs. If RB Norman Whitley remains suspended it may not matter thanks to Dominique Lindsay and Brandon Jackson, a very talented transfer frm Kentucky. The OL returns intact which means ECU could start well and gain momentum early. ECU could get to 9 or 10 wins by the end of the season, but I see a C-USA that is far too challenging colliding with a brutal non-conference schedule as well. I'll go with 8 wins.
Marshall- The Thundering Herd barely lost three games last year and could have easily been bowl-eligible, but they will only go as far as their QBs take them. Whether it's Brian Anderson or Mark Cann, whoever wins the job will have All-American candidate Cody Slate at TE to throw to. Darius Marshall will need to continue his productivity at TB and if he can, the offense should be ok. However, the Herd will need someone to take the pressure off of Slate and that man could be WR Bryant Milligan. If not Milligan, then JUCO transfer Charles Walker or Courtney Edmondson will need to step up their game. Mario Harvey and Brandon Burns should be the leaders of the defense at LB, but the efficiency of the defense will depend upon starting CBs DeQuan Bembry and TJ Drakeford. Each player had 1 INT apiece and that just will not do in C-USA. Only 2 picks from your starting CBs is awful. The DEs are also outstanding so the Herd should be an improving team and will only be helped by having very dependable players at K and P also returning. The non-conference schedule isn't too brutal, but home games with SMU and UAB will determine whether they go past the break even point. I'll call for 6 wins.
Memphis- This must have been the hot city to go to two years ago because the Tigers are acquiring a lot of depth at already strong positions thanks to transfers. Miami (FL) transfers Jermaine McKenzie (WR) and DajLeon Farr (TE) will arrive to help out the fantastic duo of Duke Calhoun and Carlos Singleton. Singleton has the potential to be a dominant wideout ala Jarrett Dillard at Rice, but he hasn't had that one magical season yet. He may have that in 2009 thanks to Arkelon Hall returning, who had ok numbers, but will need to do much better with a talented receiving duo. This may be hard because only one OL returns and not just Hall will be affected, but Curtis Steele, who had a 1,000 yard season last year. If the running game can't produce, a very talented offense may go in a tailspin. The Tigers will get help in the secondary from Auburn transfer DeRon Furr and they may need it because CBs DA Griffin and Deante Lamar had less productivity than Marshall's starting CBs (just one INT here total). The good news is all of the LBs return and Derrick Odom comes in from LSU to help bolster the group. Memphis is yet another team I see going 2-2 in non-conference play from this division, but the road game at Middle Tennessee is not a given. The best Memphis can hope for is 5 wins, maybe 6, if they pull off a road upset. However, I see 4 most realistic, 3 if they can't get by MT.
Southern Miss- The Golden Eagles have a very healthy offense returning, but they do lose one key starter in TE Shawn Nelson. That could be a key loss if DeAndre Brown isn't healthy after his horrific bowl injury. However, Brown should be fine, and with Nelson gone, WRs Freddie Parham and Gerald Baptiste should produce good numbers, especially with Brown drawing double-coverage from other teams. With the entire OL returning, QB Austin Davis should keep his impressive numbers and stud RB Damion Fletcher could easily top 1500-1700 yards and have good receiving numbers. The Eagles have a very good defense returning, and may want to consider adding a Rover position instead of a 3rd LB to get Justin Wilson into the lineup more since he had 4 INTs with limited amount of starts. Wilson could be backing up Chico Hunter and besides those two, the secondary is outstanding thanks to CBs CJ Bailey and Andre Watson. That will help a lot in the pass-happy, high-octane C-USA. The DL is deep and talented, but two new starting LBs will have to produce for the Eagles to improve on their 7 wins from last year. A road game at Houston and the finale at ECU will go a long way in determining the conference champ, but I see ECU coming through in that game. However, if Souther Miss takes care of business in their other conference games, they may still come away as Eastern Division champs. UVa, Kansas and Louisville are not easy non-conference games, but the Eagles could come away 3-0, the biggie will be Kansas. However, I call for a slip up or two and for ECU to win the East division, which means 8 wins for Southern Miss.
UAB- I haven't seen a team that relies on one player this much since Ramon Flanigan was playing at SMU in the early-to-mid 90s. QB Joe Webb has one last shot at leading his Blazers to a bowl game and this may be his best shot with a deep, but not spectacular group of receivers coming back and potential 1,000 yard rusher Rashaud Slaughter. The key for Webb will be making plays with his feet and getting the ball to do-it-all WR Frantrell Forrest who could surpass 1500 yards all purpose with his KRs added in. Since the entire offense returns, all 11 starters, the entire unit can only get better. The Blazers have some solid players on defense, but no one returning who will scare opposing offenses. The DL returns intact, but that area needs a lot of improvement for this team to be successful. Terrell Springs was underwhelming at CB last year, but Brandon Carlisle did well in limited action, so if the pass D can hold up in a few games, UAB may pull an upset. The LBs are also hit-or-miss but I like this team's potential. Webb can only improve on a 10-to-16 TD-to-INT ratio and Rice and SMU are winnable home games to start the season. If they can beat Troy or Texas A&M on the road in the next two, then a .500 season is not too far-fetched. While they will probably get 4 wins, 5 at most, I see a bowl-eligibility season coming if the team gels quickly.
UCF- With the Knights losing QB Michael Greco due to his move to DB, the offense may be in good shape since incumbent Rob Calabrese won't have to worry about being pulled for a more experienced player. Calabrese will need WR Brian Watters or Kamar Aiken to step up to be really efficient through the air. This is even more important because the RBs are ok, but not necessarily reliable. Brynn Harvey and Ronnie Weaver are the RBs right now, but one needs to emerge as a feature back. UCF doesn't need another Kevin Smith, although that certainly wouldn't hurt matters, but just one player who can take the bulk of the carries and gain 1,000 yards would work wonders. Having a patchwork OL with two possible freshman starting won't help. DEs Jarvig Geathers and Bruce Miller are outstanding DEs and they will need to keep up their impressive sack totals because UCF loses a lot of experience in the secondary. While FS Derrick Hallman may be a possible all-conference performer, he can't patrol the whole secondary. Lawrence Young and Chance Henderson are two dominant LBs, so the bulk of the Knights' success will depend on their front seven. Losing a great KR in Joe Burnett will also hurt UCF. Unless UCF pulls an upset against Miami (FL) they may have five certain losses because road games at Southern Miss, ECU and Texas and a homecoming date with Houston are very tough tasks. I hate to be negative because George O'Leary has been successful here, but I see 3-4 wins max. Hey, every conference has to have a bottom-feeder.
Hopefully in a few hours I will get to the west division, where the real meat-and-potatoes lies. That's where all the high-powered offenses really come into play and a ton of exciting games await anyone who has CSTV where their games are usually featured.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
WAC Preview
Well, this has been a one-horse league forever, and it's hard to see that changing anytime soon. Personally, I feel that two teams need to move to the Mountain West conference, preferably Nevada and Boise State and leave Fresno State and others to duel it out for the WAC title. Then, you promote Montana from Div I-AA and watch them become another Marshall as they flourish in a much lower-tier league. And if 11 teams is too much for the MWC without two divisions and a conference title game, then you move Fresno or relegate New Mexico or UNLV to the WAC. Too bad all of this will never happen. Anyways, let's get to the preview.
Boise St.- Uh oh, it looks like the alphabetical order setup dictates that we're shooting our wad early with the Broncos. This team should again dominate with a home game against Nevada and only one real road test, at Fresno St. standing in their way. Sophomore QB Kellen Moore may not improve much upon last year's stats with only good WR back, Austin Pettis back, but he does have a good TE in Kyle Efaw returning as well. Ian Johnson's dramatic drop-off in productivity last year was BSU's gain as Jeremy Avery proved to be a fabulous second banana. DJ Harper is another good back that will produce behind a good OL. The defense should still be good despite losing 6 starters and the strength is in the secondary with CBs Kyle Wilson and Brandyn Thompson and FS Jeron Johnson. Derrell Acrey is an ok LB, but Aaron Tevis was just as productive taking fewer snaps. They will need dramatic improvement at LB to remain a top-flight program. The DL can rush the passer, but they will need to stop the outstanding ground games of Nevada and Fresno State to win this conference again. I will call for 9 or 10 wins yet again for this program, but playing against the likes of Oregon and Tulsa will provide some tough tests.
Fresno St.- If the Bulldogs are smart they will rely on a good OL and the talented backfield trio of Lonyae Miller, Anthony Harding and Ryan Mathews to help the new QB, whoever it may be, ease into his new role. That backfield should make for one of the country's deepest units. Another bright spot for the new QB will be the return of Seyi Ajirotutu and Marlon Moore at WR, with Devon Wylie and Rashad Evans providing plenty of depth. The one thing that could derail the Bulldogs' season is the defense which was struggling during a four-game stretch against Toledo, UCLA, Idaho and Hawaii last season (149 points). Now, the offense was able to make up for that ineptness and win 3 of the 4 games, but they cannot rely on that again this season. They do return 8 starters, but the secondary is pitiful. Their leader in INTs had 2 and is projected to be a backup while the DL has potential at best, with only Chris Carter being able to rush the passer. The LBs also struggled to produce so without a ton of improvement I see a down season for this usually stable program. This may be pessimistic, but I call them for only 5 or 6 wins as the schedule is very tough and the WAC is improving each season, especially the teams at the bottom.
Hawaii- It's best to get the defense out of the way because the glaring weakness. It's not that Hawaii was bad defensively last season, they were actually not bad, but with 2 returning starters, expect a serious step backwards. The good news is they have DE John Fonoti who could be a rising star, but they will need Oregon State transfer Mana Silva and CBs Melvin Hopkins and Jeramy Bryant to find their way quickly as new starters. Hopefully, the Warriors' offense will be a lot more settled now that they have chosen Greg Alexander to be the starter at QB. He doesn't throw a lot of picks and is very accurate, so SB/WR Kealoha Pilares and WRs, Malcolm Lane, Greg Salas and Daniel Lofton could have monster seasons. Lofton could be a huge star as he has the pedigree of being James Lofton's son, a soon-to-be NFL Hall of Famer. I also like Leon Wright-Jackson at TB who could produce good numbers for a RB in this system. The OL needs to replace 2 OGs, so assuming they do that with even decent players, Alexander should have plenty of time to throw and approach 4,000 yards. This is an offense that should be just like Texas Tech's in how they keep producing effective passers. The schedule is rough with Boise State and Fresno State coming to the big island, games they would probably lose anyways, and road games at UNLV, Louisiana Tech, Nevada and San Jose St. How they handle those tests will determine if they get to my max prediction of 6-7 wins.
Idaho- The first thing to note here is that the Vandals really need to break a stretch of losing and gain just 4-5 wins to gain some momentum within the program. All this could be accomplished with winnable road games at New Mexico St. and Northern Illinois early in the season. San Diego St. will travel to the Kibble Dome and haven't been much of a threat in recent seasons so it remains to be seen what will happen there. RB Deonte' Jackson has major potential and should be used as more of a feature back with Princeton McCarty capable of spelling him when he needs a break. Nathan Enderle is a good QB and thankfully he has two good WRs returning because he loses all-world TE Eddie Williams. Idaho does lose 3 starters on the OL but they still have experience from their college careers, just not in 2008. Isaac Butts should be the leader on defense as he is a CB with a lot of potential and decent size at 6". Virdell Larkins should continue to provide range at FS, but JoJo Dickson and Robert Siavii need to produce at LB for this defense to be solid, especially with a lot of good running teams around the conference. There are no outstanding pass rushers coming back, so if they can't get to the passer, that will only hurt the secondary and could cost them a few games. This is a team that has little room for error and I will call for 4-5 wins at best, but if things start going wrong early, that might be optimistic.
Louisiana Tech- The key for the Bulldogs will be finding a viable backup to take the pressure off of all-conference RB Daniel Porter, especially with all 5 starters on the OL returning. If Myke Compton doesn't fit that bill, then it should be time to turn to incoming freshman Tyrone Duplessis who not only ran track in HS but was a highly-rated all-purpose back by Rivals.com. Ross Jenkins returns at QB and will only improve with experience, but RP Stuart and Cruz Williams needs to emerge as another threat at WR to compliment Phillip Livas. I think LT will be fine on defense despite losing two good starters at LB and having no returning CBs. I think Terry Carter will be fine at one corner and with Deon Young and Antonio Baker returning at the safety spots, the secondary might surprisingly be a strength. The DL is very good as they have productivity in numbers rather than just a single star. Losing a starting K always looks bad, but when that K only hit 50% of FGs, then it's a good thing and Livas is a stud returning kicks and punts. Assuming they win at Navy they should go .500 in non-conference and all their conference road games are winnable, but at Fresno and Nevada won't be easy. If they break even on those two, I see possibly 8 wins, although 6-7 looks more likely.
Nevada- This Wolf Pack team has a legitimate shot at breaking Boise St.'s stranglehold on the conference. Even though they have to travel to the blue turf, the defense is good enough to hold up this season. DEs Dontay Moch and Kevin Basped are two of the nations best at getting to the passer and despite an inexperienced LB corps, the secondary will help the defense stay strong. Mo Harvey and Jonathon Amaya are good safeties who make QBs pay for bad decisions and Isaiah Frey and Antoine Thompson are good cover corners. Assuming the defense keeps the plot and holds steady, Nevada will have an outstanding season. On offense, if Luke Lippincott can return to his 2007 form, then he, Vai Taua, and QB Colin Kaepernick may be the best three running threats on one team in the country. Taua and Kaepernick combined for over 2,600 yards, 32 TDs and both averaged over 6 yards per carry. They lose two starters on the OL but a JUCO transfer and new C Kenneth Ackerman, who has started at G before, will ease the transition. The question is, why would Nevada throw unless they have to? They do have a solid TE in Virgil Green and Chris Wellington is a viable deep threat, but the Wolf Pack need to just wear down teams on the DL and they should do fine. A road game at Notre Dame and Missouri at home seem like two key tests, but Missouri has upset potential written all over it as the Tigers have no QB with real experience. If Nevada can stay focused and not look ahead to Nov. 27th when they play at Boise St., then 10-11 wins is well within their grasp. The key will be the defense staying strong as the offense should continue to flourish.
New Mexico St.- The Aggies will have a rough season in 2009 as their head coach is relying on a lot of JUCO transfers to fill in the holes and while that can work well for a limited time, it's not good for the program's long-term goals. The other problem is, Jeff Fleming, one of those transfers expected to fill in at QB, has a daunting task of replacing Chase Holbrook, who was amazingly efficient for a QB on a bad team. The good news is Marquell Colston and Tonny Glynn could be decent RBs if they got more carries and Marcus Anderson is a solid #1 WR. Julius Fleming is the only WR with any real experience, so two JUCO players in William Bullock and Marcus Allen better learn the system right away or this will be a horrific offense. The OL is decent, but Jeff Fleming better not take too much time while he's in the pocket. The defense only has one plus, and that is return of 3 starting LBs, but when you consider this defense allowed 30+ points nine times, that's not necessarily a good thing. Davon House is a solid CB but unless Jonte Green can shutdown the other side, the defense will get eaten alive again. The first two games will be the key point in NMSU season as they play Idaho and Prairie View A&M at home, which could result in wins, but then things go downhill. New Mexico and San Diego St. may be winnable games if the Aggies got them in Las Cruces, but on the road are more than likely losses. I'll call 1-2 wins being optimistic unless they pull a shocking upset or two.
San Jose St.- The Spartans are a very confusing team because they have most of the pieces on defense to succeed, but the offense was just pitiful last year. Carl and Duke Ihenacho were two of the best defenders on any team in the country last year and should remain All-WAC candidates again this year. DT Adonis Davis and DE Mohamed Marah should increase their production this year, and assuming they do that, the new CBs will be helped out immensely. Brandon Driver should provide immediate help as a JUCO transfer and should get a lot of help from Duke Ihenacho who plays the same type of position Brian Uhrlacher did when he was at New Mexico (which means he will be everywhere). The offense, on the other hand, may have some problems getting started despite the return of Kyle Reed as a starter. Reed never developed much of a flow as a starter last year and needs to be more efficient than 6 yards a pass attempt. Having WR Terrance Williams and Kevin Jurovich back should help him achieve that goal, but not as much as having his entire OL back to protect him and RB Patrick Perry finally healthy. Perry should team up with another JUCO, Lamon Muldrow to make for an exciting running game. Muldrow doesn't have top-flight speed, but the ground game should be focused on wearing down opponents and setting up an efficient passing game. The non-conference is tough but a win at Stanford or at home to Utah will set them up nicely. All of their home games should be wins, except Nevada who will be a tough test while going 2-2 on the road in the conference should actually be a positive as none of the road tests are easy. I'll call for a break-even season, maybe 7 wins. This all depens on Reed though and how he progresses with his WRs.
Utah St.- This is truly the wildcard team of the WAC because they will only go as far as QB Diondre Borel takes them. He has a lot of help surrounding him at the WR spot with strength in numbers thanks to Nnamdi Gachem, Stanley Morrison, Omar Sawyer and TE Doug Barbour. The running game should be ok with newcomer Michael Smith, but I would prefer to see them stick with Robert Turbin or Curtis Marsh who weren't bad. The main threat on the ground could still be Borel, but he needs to limit how many hits he takes because if he's gone, so goes the Aggies season. The defense, much like a lot of other teams in the WAC will depend on the secondary and a new CB from the JUCO ranks; this time it's Rajric Coleman. He steps into an ok position where FS James Brindley is very consistent and he can learn from Kejon Murphy, a good cover man. The DL, much like the WR corps, has no stars but a lot of depth and will provide solid play. The LBs should be good thanks to Paul Igboeli and Bobby Wagner. The schedule looks a bit rough but if they can shock fellow Aggies Texas A&M (not out of the realm of possibility) they will start 2-2 before a rough WAC schedule. They get no favors hosting 4 of the top 5 teams in the WAC and going to Idaho and Hawaii, which will be crucial games. If they win at New Mexico State and split HI/ID, I'll call for maybe 6 wins, but 4 looks realistic. It's too bad because this team has a lot of potential too.
Well, tomorrow we break down C-USA, most likely the Eastern division which has a lot of talented teams looking to climb towards the top.
Boise St.- Uh oh, it looks like the alphabetical order setup dictates that we're shooting our wad early with the Broncos. This team should again dominate with a home game against Nevada and only one real road test, at Fresno St. standing in their way. Sophomore QB Kellen Moore may not improve much upon last year's stats with only good WR back, Austin Pettis back, but he does have a good TE in Kyle Efaw returning as well. Ian Johnson's dramatic drop-off in productivity last year was BSU's gain as Jeremy Avery proved to be a fabulous second banana. DJ Harper is another good back that will produce behind a good OL. The defense should still be good despite losing 6 starters and the strength is in the secondary with CBs Kyle Wilson and Brandyn Thompson and FS Jeron Johnson. Derrell Acrey is an ok LB, but Aaron Tevis was just as productive taking fewer snaps. They will need dramatic improvement at LB to remain a top-flight program. The DL can rush the passer, but they will need to stop the outstanding ground games of Nevada and Fresno State to win this conference again. I will call for 9 or 10 wins yet again for this program, but playing against the likes of Oregon and Tulsa will provide some tough tests.
Fresno St.- If the Bulldogs are smart they will rely on a good OL and the talented backfield trio of Lonyae Miller, Anthony Harding and Ryan Mathews to help the new QB, whoever it may be, ease into his new role. That backfield should make for one of the country's deepest units. Another bright spot for the new QB will be the return of Seyi Ajirotutu and Marlon Moore at WR, with Devon Wylie and Rashad Evans providing plenty of depth. The one thing that could derail the Bulldogs' season is the defense which was struggling during a four-game stretch against Toledo, UCLA, Idaho and Hawaii last season (149 points). Now, the offense was able to make up for that ineptness and win 3 of the 4 games, but they cannot rely on that again this season. They do return 8 starters, but the secondary is pitiful. Their leader in INTs had 2 and is projected to be a backup while the DL has potential at best, with only Chris Carter being able to rush the passer. The LBs also struggled to produce so without a ton of improvement I see a down season for this usually stable program. This may be pessimistic, but I call them for only 5 or 6 wins as the schedule is very tough and the WAC is improving each season, especially the teams at the bottom.
Hawaii- It's best to get the defense out of the way because the glaring weakness. It's not that Hawaii was bad defensively last season, they were actually not bad, but with 2 returning starters, expect a serious step backwards. The good news is they have DE John Fonoti who could be a rising star, but they will need Oregon State transfer Mana Silva and CBs Melvin Hopkins and Jeramy Bryant to find their way quickly as new starters. Hopefully, the Warriors' offense will be a lot more settled now that they have chosen Greg Alexander to be the starter at QB. He doesn't throw a lot of picks and is very accurate, so SB/WR Kealoha Pilares and WRs, Malcolm Lane, Greg Salas and Daniel Lofton could have monster seasons. Lofton could be a huge star as he has the pedigree of being James Lofton's son, a soon-to-be NFL Hall of Famer. I also like Leon Wright-Jackson at TB who could produce good numbers for a RB in this system. The OL needs to replace 2 OGs, so assuming they do that with even decent players, Alexander should have plenty of time to throw and approach 4,000 yards. This is an offense that should be just like Texas Tech's in how they keep producing effective passers. The schedule is rough with Boise State and Fresno State coming to the big island, games they would probably lose anyways, and road games at UNLV, Louisiana Tech, Nevada and San Jose St. How they handle those tests will determine if they get to my max prediction of 6-7 wins.
Idaho- The first thing to note here is that the Vandals really need to break a stretch of losing and gain just 4-5 wins to gain some momentum within the program. All this could be accomplished with winnable road games at New Mexico St. and Northern Illinois early in the season. San Diego St. will travel to the Kibble Dome and haven't been much of a threat in recent seasons so it remains to be seen what will happen there. RB Deonte' Jackson has major potential and should be used as more of a feature back with Princeton McCarty capable of spelling him when he needs a break. Nathan Enderle is a good QB and thankfully he has two good WRs returning because he loses all-world TE Eddie Williams. Idaho does lose 3 starters on the OL but they still have experience from their college careers, just not in 2008. Isaac Butts should be the leader on defense as he is a CB with a lot of potential and decent size at 6". Virdell Larkins should continue to provide range at FS, but JoJo Dickson and Robert Siavii need to produce at LB for this defense to be solid, especially with a lot of good running teams around the conference. There are no outstanding pass rushers coming back, so if they can't get to the passer, that will only hurt the secondary and could cost them a few games. This is a team that has little room for error and I will call for 4-5 wins at best, but if things start going wrong early, that might be optimistic.
Louisiana Tech- The key for the Bulldogs will be finding a viable backup to take the pressure off of all-conference RB Daniel Porter, especially with all 5 starters on the OL returning. If Myke Compton doesn't fit that bill, then it should be time to turn to incoming freshman Tyrone Duplessis who not only ran track in HS but was a highly-rated all-purpose back by Rivals.com. Ross Jenkins returns at QB and will only improve with experience, but RP Stuart and Cruz Williams needs to emerge as another threat at WR to compliment Phillip Livas. I think LT will be fine on defense despite losing two good starters at LB and having no returning CBs. I think Terry Carter will be fine at one corner and with Deon Young and Antonio Baker returning at the safety spots, the secondary might surprisingly be a strength. The DL is very good as they have productivity in numbers rather than just a single star. Losing a starting K always looks bad, but when that K only hit 50% of FGs, then it's a good thing and Livas is a stud returning kicks and punts. Assuming they win at Navy they should go .500 in non-conference and all their conference road games are winnable, but at Fresno and Nevada won't be easy. If they break even on those two, I see possibly 8 wins, although 6-7 looks more likely.
Nevada- This Wolf Pack team has a legitimate shot at breaking Boise St.'s stranglehold on the conference. Even though they have to travel to the blue turf, the defense is good enough to hold up this season. DEs Dontay Moch and Kevin Basped are two of the nations best at getting to the passer and despite an inexperienced LB corps, the secondary will help the defense stay strong. Mo Harvey and Jonathon Amaya are good safeties who make QBs pay for bad decisions and Isaiah Frey and Antoine Thompson are good cover corners. Assuming the defense keeps the plot and holds steady, Nevada will have an outstanding season. On offense, if Luke Lippincott can return to his 2007 form, then he, Vai Taua, and QB Colin Kaepernick may be the best three running threats on one team in the country. Taua and Kaepernick combined for over 2,600 yards, 32 TDs and both averaged over 6 yards per carry. They lose two starters on the OL but a JUCO transfer and new C Kenneth Ackerman, who has started at G before, will ease the transition. The question is, why would Nevada throw unless they have to? They do have a solid TE in Virgil Green and Chris Wellington is a viable deep threat, but the Wolf Pack need to just wear down teams on the DL and they should do fine. A road game at Notre Dame and Missouri at home seem like two key tests, but Missouri has upset potential written all over it as the Tigers have no QB with real experience. If Nevada can stay focused and not look ahead to Nov. 27th when they play at Boise St., then 10-11 wins is well within their grasp. The key will be the defense staying strong as the offense should continue to flourish.
New Mexico St.- The Aggies will have a rough season in 2009 as their head coach is relying on a lot of JUCO transfers to fill in the holes and while that can work well for a limited time, it's not good for the program's long-term goals. The other problem is, Jeff Fleming, one of those transfers expected to fill in at QB, has a daunting task of replacing Chase Holbrook, who was amazingly efficient for a QB on a bad team. The good news is Marquell Colston and Tonny Glynn could be decent RBs if they got more carries and Marcus Anderson is a solid #1 WR. Julius Fleming is the only WR with any real experience, so two JUCO players in William Bullock and Marcus Allen better learn the system right away or this will be a horrific offense. The OL is decent, but Jeff Fleming better not take too much time while he's in the pocket. The defense only has one plus, and that is return of 3 starting LBs, but when you consider this defense allowed 30+ points nine times, that's not necessarily a good thing. Davon House is a solid CB but unless Jonte Green can shutdown the other side, the defense will get eaten alive again. The first two games will be the key point in NMSU season as they play Idaho and Prairie View A&M at home, which could result in wins, but then things go downhill. New Mexico and San Diego St. may be winnable games if the Aggies got them in Las Cruces, but on the road are more than likely losses. I'll call 1-2 wins being optimistic unless they pull a shocking upset or two.
San Jose St.- The Spartans are a very confusing team because they have most of the pieces on defense to succeed, but the offense was just pitiful last year. Carl and Duke Ihenacho were two of the best defenders on any team in the country last year and should remain All-WAC candidates again this year. DT Adonis Davis and DE Mohamed Marah should increase their production this year, and assuming they do that, the new CBs will be helped out immensely. Brandon Driver should provide immediate help as a JUCO transfer and should get a lot of help from Duke Ihenacho who plays the same type of position Brian Uhrlacher did when he was at New Mexico (which means he will be everywhere). The offense, on the other hand, may have some problems getting started despite the return of Kyle Reed as a starter. Reed never developed much of a flow as a starter last year and needs to be more efficient than 6 yards a pass attempt. Having WR Terrance Williams and Kevin Jurovich back should help him achieve that goal, but not as much as having his entire OL back to protect him and RB Patrick Perry finally healthy. Perry should team up with another JUCO, Lamon Muldrow to make for an exciting running game. Muldrow doesn't have top-flight speed, but the ground game should be focused on wearing down opponents and setting up an efficient passing game. The non-conference is tough but a win at Stanford or at home to Utah will set them up nicely. All of their home games should be wins, except Nevada who will be a tough test while going 2-2 on the road in the conference should actually be a positive as none of the road tests are easy. I'll call for a break-even season, maybe 7 wins. This all depens on Reed though and how he progresses with his WRs.
Utah St.- This is truly the wildcard team of the WAC because they will only go as far as QB Diondre Borel takes them. He has a lot of help surrounding him at the WR spot with strength in numbers thanks to Nnamdi Gachem, Stanley Morrison, Omar Sawyer and TE Doug Barbour. The running game should be ok with newcomer Michael Smith, but I would prefer to see them stick with Robert Turbin or Curtis Marsh who weren't bad. The main threat on the ground could still be Borel, but he needs to limit how many hits he takes because if he's gone, so goes the Aggies season. The defense, much like a lot of other teams in the WAC will depend on the secondary and a new CB from the JUCO ranks; this time it's Rajric Coleman. He steps into an ok position where FS James Brindley is very consistent and he can learn from Kejon Murphy, a good cover man. The DL, much like the WR corps, has no stars but a lot of depth and will provide solid play. The LBs should be good thanks to Paul Igboeli and Bobby Wagner. The schedule looks a bit rough but if they can shock fellow Aggies Texas A&M (not out of the realm of possibility) they will start 2-2 before a rough WAC schedule. They get no favors hosting 4 of the top 5 teams in the WAC and going to Idaho and Hawaii, which will be crucial games. If they win at New Mexico State and split HI/ID, I'll call for maybe 6 wins, but 4 looks realistic. It's too bad because this team has a lot of potential too.
Well, tomorrow we break down C-USA, most likely the Eastern division which has a lot of talented teams looking to climb towards the top.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
MAC (Western Division)
Ok, so we're back for the second half of the MAC preview. This is where the teams with the most potential reside, but it remains to be seen if the big boys can put the talent together and make a run at the top 25. I don't think any team in the entire conference should be really dominant and there will be more parody and uncertainty than this conference has seen in a long time. Let's start with last year's darlings...
Ball St.- The Cardinals have the misfortune of losing Nate Davis at QB, but they may be the luckiest team in America because they have 3 non-conference games that are very winnable. North Texas, New Hampshire and at Army isn't exactly a litmus test for determining if a team is great, but we will see how well they fare without Davis at least. The good news is whoever starts will have fabulous TB MiQuale Lewis back to run all over the place and take up most of the workload on offense. The bad news is the OL is very inexperienced, so Lewis could have a major drop in production. Briggs Orsbon and Daniel Ifft may be outstanding receivers, but if the QB doesn't have time to throw or Lewis is ineffective, the offense could go downhill fast. On defense, the Cardinals get a ton of experience back at the DL and some quality LBs (despite losing 2 starters), but have no CBs returning. That is bad news for a division with three outstanding passers. I see only three truly winnable conference games and a tricky non-conference schedule with two unknowns in Army and North Texas. I'll call for 4-5 wins, 6 if they get lucky.
Central Michigan- The Chippewas could be the one team in the MAC that catches all the breaks scheduling-wise. Road games at Arizona, Michigan St. and BC may not be the easiest schedule, but they all lose starting QBs and have upset potential when CMU comes calling. QB Dan LeFevour is a do-it-all QB who can win a lot of games on his own, but hasn't come through in the big games as of late. His only big win recently was at Indiana, but that's because the Hoosiers had fallen apart completely. With no experienced RB, CMU could suffer, but receivers Bryan Anderson and Antonio Brown could top 1,000 yards each this season. CMU is strong defensively with 10 returning starters, but the secondary was not very impressive last season. DEs Frank Zombo and Sam Williams are great at rushing the passer and could cause havoc against the good QBs in the MAC, but that remains to be seen if it will enough. Assuming the defense comes together and the offense stays on course, CMU should get 7 wins easily, but the upside is 9 or 10 with a non-conference upset or two.
Eastern Michigan- Much like North Texas in the Sun Belt, EMU is the great unknown in the MAC because they are a bad team that could rise up and have a surprising season. QB Andy Schmitt improves every season, and with a 63% completion rate, 2-1 TD-to-INT ratio and outstanding receivers in Jacory Stone, Marvin Sanders, Dontayo Gage and DeAnthony White, this offensive could be explosive. Even the TE, Josh LeDuc is a dangerous target. If all that wasn't enough, they get 4 OL back and two solid RBs in Terrence Blevins and Dwayne Priest. I feel Blevins could be a 1,000 yard rusher if he got enough carries, but the offense is much more balanced and that probably won't happen. The defense has a good pass rusher in DE Brad Ohrman, but with 8 returning starters the defense will be more of a team effort than individual stars. CB Arrington Hicks could grow into a good cover corner, but with all the explosive receivers in the MAC West, the secondary will need to step up if they have any chance at finishing .500. Luckily for EMU, road games at Northern Illinois and Toledo are winnable, and so is Ball St. at home, but they need to win 2-of-3 against Kent St., Temple and Western Michigan to finish 7-5, which is their max potential. Army and Northwestern are also winnable non-conference games, but it remains to be seen if this team can get out of their losing tradition. I'll say 4 or 5 wins, but I'm rooting for a .500 season in Schmitt's final season.
Northern Illinois- The Huskies are a confusing team because they have two talented RBs in Me'co Brown and Justin Anderson, but never turned either loose to be a dominate runner. Instead, Chandler Harnish I feel hurt the team more than helped it last year by often times keeping the ball and running it himself. Nathan Palmer is a good returning receiver, but I have little faith in this offense because they were too conservative. The excuse could be that Chandler was just a freshman last year, but really, when I saw him play, he looked only good enough to be obviously weaker foes and got overwhelmed by truly good teams. The good news is they get DE Brandon Bice back to rush the passer, but the bad news is far worse; they lose both CBs and only have 4 starters back overall. Therefore, the defense which helped them get to a bowl game will not be nearly as strong. I just don't like NI's chances against a MAC conference that has plenty of high-powered offenses. Unless NIU can run the ball and limit posessions, it will be a long season. Only Western Illinois and Idaho seem to be gimmes, but Eastern Michigan and at Miami (OH) are winnable, but beyond that, it all depends on how the defense comes together. I'll call for 4 wins because they are usually well-coached and a .500 record would be a huge success.
Toledo- The Rockets have so many returning starters that it seems inevitable that they will top last year's 3 win total, which they will, but the early season could be rough. Purdue is winnable on the road, but not a gimme by any stretch and home against Colorado could also be a close game, but Ohio State is a definite loss. Therefore, if the Rockets start 0-3, things could collapse on their first-year coach Tim Beckman. Anyways, QB Aaron Opelt has superstar receiver Stephen Williams back, and if they can find another weapon or two on the flanks, the offense will be quite dangerous. RBs Morgan Williams and DaJuane Collins may provide the best 1-2 punch of any backfield in the MAC and with the entire OL returning, Toledo will outscore a few teams when they have to. The Rockets have a lot of returning starters on defense, especially at LB and will need a lot of leadership from Archie Donald, Daris Quinn and Barry Church. The secondary may end up ok, but the pass rush will need to produce more than 2 sacks for their individual leader. If the defense can't get to all the talented QBs, I see a 5-7 record. Temple, Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan are not easy games by any stretch so any loss of confidence will hurt.
Western Michigan- It will be a heavy task for Tim Hiller to replicate his 3700 yards and 36 TDs from last year without three of his favorite receivers returning. However, he does have outstanding TB Brandon West returning, along with his capable backup Aaron Winchester, and the reliable Juan Nunez at WR. However, even with all the losses at wideout, they do have a strong OL returning. But, the main problems will be on defense. First, the positives are they get DE Justin Braska who will disrupt any good offense with his speed and agility while LB Austin Pritchard should be an easy All-MAC selection. The problems will be in the secondary where only FS Mario Armstrong has any real experience. The good news with the scheduling is they could cruise to 4-1 or even 5-0 at home, but the road is killer going to Eastern Michigan, NIU and Toledo. All three games could end up in losses, even though WM is probably better than all of them. I have no reason to say with any conviction they will win more than 7 games. It could be a bad season for a program that has been very consistent the last 4 years. And by bad I mean 5 wins, which is not too tragic.
Ok, tune in tomorrow where hopefully I will get through the entire WAC conference, which has two real contenders and a bunch of other squads just praying to achieve bowl eligibility.
Ball St.- The Cardinals have the misfortune of losing Nate Davis at QB, but they may be the luckiest team in America because they have 3 non-conference games that are very winnable. North Texas, New Hampshire and at Army isn't exactly a litmus test for determining if a team is great, but we will see how well they fare without Davis at least. The good news is whoever starts will have fabulous TB MiQuale Lewis back to run all over the place and take up most of the workload on offense. The bad news is the OL is very inexperienced, so Lewis could have a major drop in production. Briggs Orsbon and Daniel Ifft may be outstanding receivers, but if the QB doesn't have time to throw or Lewis is ineffective, the offense could go downhill fast. On defense, the Cardinals get a ton of experience back at the DL and some quality LBs (despite losing 2 starters), but have no CBs returning. That is bad news for a division with three outstanding passers. I see only three truly winnable conference games and a tricky non-conference schedule with two unknowns in Army and North Texas. I'll call for 4-5 wins, 6 if they get lucky.
Central Michigan- The Chippewas could be the one team in the MAC that catches all the breaks scheduling-wise. Road games at Arizona, Michigan St. and BC may not be the easiest schedule, but they all lose starting QBs and have upset potential when CMU comes calling. QB Dan LeFevour is a do-it-all QB who can win a lot of games on his own, but hasn't come through in the big games as of late. His only big win recently was at Indiana, but that's because the Hoosiers had fallen apart completely. With no experienced RB, CMU could suffer, but receivers Bryan Anderson and Antonio Brown could top 1,000 yards each this season. CMU is strong defensively with 10 returning starters, but the secondary was not very impressive last season. DEs Frank Zombo and Sam Williams are great at rushing the passer and could cause havoc against the good QBs in the MAC, but that remains to be seen if it will enough. Assuming the defense comes together and the offense stays on course, CMU should get 7 wins easily, but the upside is 9 or 10 with a non-conference upset or two.
Eastern Michigan- Much like North Texas in the Sun Belt, EMU is the great unknown in the MAC because they are a bad team that could rise up and have a surprising season. QB Andy Schmitt improves every season, and with a 63% completion rate, 2-1 TD-to-INT ratio and outstanding receivers in Jacory Stone, Marvin Sanders, Dontayo Gage and DeAnthony White, this offensive could be explosive. Even the TE, Josh LeDuc is a dangerous target. If all that wasn't enough, they get 4 OL back and two solid RBs in Terrence Blevins and Dwayne Priest. I feel Blevins could be a 1,000 yard rusher if he got enough carries, but the offense is much more balanced and that probably won't happen. The defense has a good pass rusher in DE Brad Ohrman, but with 8 returning starters the defense will be more of a team effort than individual stars. CB Arrington Hicks could grow into a good cover corner, but with all the explosive receivers in the MAC West, the secondary will need to step up if they have any chance at finishing .500. Luckily for EMU, road games at Northern Illinois and Toledo are winnable, and so is Ball St. at home, but they need to win 2-of-3 against Kent St., Temple and Western Michigan to finish 7-5, which is their max potential. Army and Northwestern are also winnable non-conference games, but it remains to be seen if this team can get out of their losing tradition. I'll say 4 or 5 wins, but I'm rooting for a .500 season in Schmitt's final season.
Northern Illinois- The Huskies are a confusing team because they have two talented RBs in Me'co Brown and Justin Anderson, but never turned either loose to be a dominate runner. Instead, Chandler Harnish I feel hurt the team more than helped it last year by often times keeping the ball and running it himself. Nathan Palmer is a good returning receiver, but I have little faith in this offense because they were too conservative. The excuse could be that Chandler was just a freshman last year, but really, when I saw him play, he looked only good enough to be obviously weaker foes and got overwhelmed by truly good teams. The good news is they get DE Brandon Bice back to rush the passer, but the bad news is far worse; they lose both CBs and only have 4 starters back overall. Therefore, the defense which helped them get to a bowl game will not be nearly as strong. I just don't like NI's chances against a MAC conference that has plenty of high-powered offenses. Unless NIU can run the ball and limit posessions, it will be a long season. Only Western Illinois and Idaho seem to be gimmes, but Eastern Michigan and at Miami (OH) are winnable, but beyond that, it all depends on how the defense comes together. I'll call for 4 wins because they are usually well-coached and a .500 record would be a huge success.
Toledo- The Rockets have so many returning starters that it seems inevitable that they will top last year's 3 win total, which they will, but the early season could be rough. Purdue is winnable on the road, but not a gimme by any stretch and home against Colorado could also be a close game, but Ohio State is a definite loss. Therefore, if the Rockets start 0-3, things could collapse on their first-year coach Tim Beckman. Anyways, QB Aaron Opelt has superstar receiver Stephen Williams back, and if they can find another weapon or two on the flanks, the offense will be quite dangerous. RBs Morgan Williams and DaJuane Collins may provide the best 1-2 punch of any backfield in the MAC and with the entire OL returning, Toledo will outscore a few teams when they have to. The Rockets have a lot of returning starters on defense, especially at LB and will need a lot of leadership from Archie Donald, Daris Quinn and Barry Church. The secondary may end up ok, but the pass rush will need to produce more than 2 sacks for their individual leader. If the defense can't get to all the talented QBs, I see a 5-7 record. Temple, Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan are not easy games by any stretch so any loss of confidence will hurt.
Western Michigan- It will be a heavy task for Tim Hiller to replicate his 3700 yards and 36 TDs from last year without three of his favorite receivers returning. However, he does have outstanding TB Brandon West returning, along with his capable backup Aaron Winchester, and the reliable Juan Nunez at WR. However, even with all the losses at wideout, they do have a strong OL returning. But, the main problems will be on defense. First, the positives are they get DE Justin Braska who will disrupt any good offense with his speed and agility while LB Austin Pritchard should be an easy All-MAC selection. The problems will be in the secondary where only FS Mario Armstrong has any real experience. The good news with the scheduling is they could cruise to 4-1 or even 5-0 at home, but the road is killer going to Eastern Michigan, NIU and Toledo. All three games could end up in losses, even though WM is probably better than all of them. I have no reason to say with any conviction they will win more than 7 games. It could be a bad season for a program that has been very consistent the last 4 years. And by bad I mean 5 wins, which is not too tragic.
Ok, tune in tomorrow where hopefully I will get through the entire WAC conference, which has two real contenders and a bunch of other squads just praying to achieve bowl eligibility.
Monday, June 15, 2009
MAC (Eastern Division)
Well, here we are, back for another round. This is finally not the weakest conference in Div I-A thanks to the Sun Belt and the emergence of Ball St., Central Michigan, Buffalo and Northern Illinois over the last decade or so. Of course, we can't forget Toledo either, who played in the first ever OT game in Div I-A, winning the game over Nevada thanks to Wasean Tait. Anyhow, all that is not relevant now, it's about 2009. So, let's get on with the bigger, but possible lesser talented MAC East.
Akron- Well, the main question here is how much the loss of Dennis Kennedy at RB will hurt the Zips. QB Chris Jacquemain is an underrated player in a conference that is known for producing quality NFL QBs. Now, I'm not saying he will be the next Pennington or Roethlisberger, but at 58%, 20 TDs and over 2700 yards, he's keeping a once-fledgling program above water. Akron used to be at the bottom of the MAC but thanks to recent years they have become much more competitive and should remain so with Deryn Bowser, Jeremy Bruce and Andre Jones at WR. The only plus for whoever finds his way starting at TB is the return of 4 quality OL and a good passing attack to take the pressure off of him. The defense will be in trouble because the 2 DEs that do return are good, but not great and starting CB Miguel Graham is the only real standout. Mike Thomas is also a solid player, covering all areas of the field, but this defense wasn't a strength in 2008, so I have little faith for '09. The schedule is balanced with some tough road games and some gimmes at home, but I see 4-5 wins at best in this ever-improving MAC.
Bowling Green- The Falcons seem to be a program that consistently puts up good win totals but never quite gets into the territory Marshall rocketed to in the late 90s where they are consistently feared, year in, year out. Northern Illinois and Central Michigan have occupied the same position as of late, but BG only gets close, and that seems to be the case this season. If anything, BG may regress unless a defense that has two outstanding safeties returning and LB Jerett Sanderson being a leader by example is enough. Angelo Magnone could be a decent DE and productive enough, but the real pressure is on the offense. Tyler Sheehan has all the talent to lead BG back to a bowl game and his receivers are good, but need to produce more TDs. The loss of Corey Partridge, a dependable starter for a few years really hurts, but Freddie Barnes could be a breakout star. The only way for the passing game to gel however is for RBs Chris Bullock and Willie Geter to dominate games. Together, the two combined for about 5 yards a pop, which is very efficient, and if that continues, the Eagles will be explosive. The key will be how BG starts, playing Troy and at Marshall for two winnable games in their first 4. However, I see the toughest tests coming at home and no guaranteed road victories. I still think they could get to .500, maybe even 7-5, but 4 or 5 wins at best seems realistic.
Buffalo- You have to give Turner Gill credit. He took a program that didn't seem ready for Div I-A and turned them into winners the last two seasons. Now the question is whether or not they can maintain that success without QB Drew Willy. Sophomore Zach Maynard may not be ready for primetime at QB, but with TB James Starks and the explosive Naaman Roosevelt at WR, he has a great supporting cast that can only help his learning curve. The OL only has 2 returnees, so the running game will be a concern without a proven passer under center. One positive is the defense returns 8 starters, which could help them win games early while the offense finds its rhythm. Then again, the defense was hardly impressive last season, even allowing Temple, who seemed to be in a coma offensively most of the season, to put up good yards and points. Their sack total was borderline reprehensible, something Tedy Bruschi or Rob Waldrop would have had at Arizona in the mid-90s by mid-season. Anyways, that's enough badgering of the defense, because I can't say anything nice about them except hopefully another season will help. Anyways, the schedule is not bad, but a loss at UTEP could create a bad feeling and then Pitt at home and UCF on the road are not cupcakes. I think everything hinges on how they start the season and I don't see things going well. Plus, playing Central and Western Michigan from the MAC West does not help them. I see 4-5 wins, but the main wildcard is Maynard. If he grasps the offense quickly, the East is not very top-heavy, so 7-8 is realistic as well. Who knows really.
Kent St.- It seems crazy to think that the Golden Flashes could get better after losing do-it-all QB Julius Edelman, but that may just be the case. Giorgio Morgan is a reliable QB who should do well, as long as he doesn't forget how to hand the ball to All-America caliber RB Eugene Jarvis. I think Jarvis tops 1500 yards easy, maybe 2000 if he becomes the focus of the offense. The receivers will get plenty of help with Iowa transfer Anthony Bowman while the rest of the group may not be spectacular, they are reliable, which is all Coach Martin could ask for in this run-dominant offense. They also lose only one OL which means they should still be good offensively. The DL is a major strength as well with Kevin Hogan, Sam Frist and Aaron Hull returning. The secondary is dependable, mostly thanks to S Brian Lainhart, and will help them win more than a few games. I can see a 4-2 start for the Flashes if they upset either Iowa St. or Boston College, the latter of which has become a distinct possibility since QB Dominique Davis' departure. I could see 7 or 8 wins and probably a .500 record in their future. They may not make my surprise teams list, but good things could come to Kent this fall.
Miami (OH)- Yet again, the major story will be the QB play. However, this time a key figure returns under center in Daniel Raudabaugh, who has all the talent and experience, but needs to cut down on interceptions big-time. Chris Givens and Dustin Woods are highly-capable receivers and they return 5 or 6 weapons on the flanks, and with Thomas Merriweather at TB, the offense could be one of the best in the MAC if they come together early in the season. The defense is the confusing issue for the Redhawks as they didn't allow very many yards through the air, but then again, they played a lot of teams who had below-average passing attacks. Without a lot of experience on D, the real issue all season will be if they can hold their opponents enough and not get worn down late in games. I would bet on that being a negative and despite a potentially high-powered offense, I call for 3 or 4 wins at best. This is also due to a very tough non-conference schedule.
Ohio- Ok, so I was reading Phil Steele's magazine and he had Theo Scott as the starter which means either Frank Solich and his OC are high, or they are complete idiots (or Steele is making a dumb prediction). There is no way in hell the Bobcats should be deviating from the Boo Jackson plan at QB because he has been outstanding because he creates a lot of plays with his feet, can pass well enough and has turned around a program that has been used to losing (except for 2006) much like Juice Williams at Illinois. Donte Harden are two very good RBs and the passing game has enough weapons at wideout to make up for the loss of dangerous TE Andrew Mooney. Mooney became one of those players last season whose reputation for being a receiving threat opened up holes in the defense for other receivers, so he will be missed. On defense, Lee Renfro and Noah Keller are good LBs and CB Thad Turner and S Steven Jackson can make this a strong unit. The DL may have plenty of returning contributors, but they will need to make more plays if they hope to contend for the MAC East title. I see Temple, Kent or Ohio coming out of the division with the crown so, Ohio has the advantage getting both of them at home. The good news for Ohio is they avoid all the directional Michigan teams in the MAC and even games at Ball St. and Buffalo aren't too bad since they will both be losing starting QBs. This all boils down to the Scott/Jackson situation; if Scott starts I call for 6-6 or 7-5 and a wide open MAC East race, but if Jackson gets the nod, they go 8-4, possibly climbing up to 9 wins and cruise to the MAC title game.
Temple- The good news for the Owls is despite losing a very good QB, Vaughn Charlton is an experienced replacement and Jason Harper and Dy'Onne Crudup are steady, but not outstanding receivers. I believe Delano Green could be another contributor at WR but the most important part of the offense is getting the ground game up and running. Syracuse transfer, and former LB Lamar McPherson apparently has the inside track at RB, but Kee-ayre Griffin and Joe Jones are not bad. The problem is they need to focus on running more and that may happen with 3 of 5 OL returning. The defense is the real strength however, as anyone would know who watched an Owls game last year. In six games last year the Owls allowed 12 points or less. The problem is they lost two of those games, but nonetheless, Jamal Schulters, Dominique Harris and Jaiquawn Jarrett make up 75% of the best secondary in the MAC. Heck, the fourth starter could be a midget and the secondary would be damn good. DE Junior Galette is a fierce pass-rusher and the front seven is very experienced and can tackle very well, which is rare with smaller programs. I think Temple is the most capable, and most logical contender for Ohio, but their offense has to improve immensely to be a real contender. They have three winnable non-conference games, but playing at Toledo, Akron and Ohio will be a tough test. If they pass, I see as many as 8 wins and a MAC East title.
Ok, when I return we shall dissect the MAC West together. Come back again soon.
Akron- Well, the main question here is how much the loss of Dennis Kennedy at RB will hurt the Zips. QB Chris Jacquemain is an underrated player in a conference that is known for producing quality NFL QBs. Now, I'm not saying he will be the next Pennington or Roethlisberger, but at 58%, 20 TDs and over 2700 yards, he's keeping a once-fledgling program above water. Akron used to be at the bottom of the MAC but thanks to recent years they have become much more competitive and should remain so with Deryn Bowser, Jeremy Bruce and Andre Jones at WR. The only plus for whoever finds his way starting at TB is the return of 4 quality OL and a good passing attack to take the pressure off of him. The defense will be in trouble because the 2 DEs that do return are good, but not great and starting CB Miguel Graham is the only real standout. Mike Thomas is also a solid player, covering all areas of the field, but this defense wasn't a strength in 2008, so I have little faith for '09. The schedule is balanced with some tough road games and some gimmes at home, but I see 4-5 wins at best in this ever-improving MAC.
Bowling Green- The Falcons seem to be a program that consistently puts up good win totals but never quite gets into the territory Marshall rocketed to in the late 90s where they are consistently feared, year in, year out. Northern Illinois and Central Michigan have occupied the same position as of late, but BG only gets close, and that seems to be the case this season. If anything, BG may regress unless a defense that has two outstanding safeties returning and LB Jerett Sanderson being a leader by example is enough. Angelo Magnone could be a decent DE and productive enough, but the real pressure is on the offense. Tyler Sheehan has all the talent to lead BG back to a bowl game and his receivers are good, but need to produce more TDs. The loss of Corey Partridge, a dependable starter for a few years really hurts, but Freddie Barnes could be a breakout star. The only way for the passing game to gel however is for RBs Chris Bullock and Willie Geter to dominate games. Together, the two combined for about 5 yards a pop, which is very efficient, and if that continues, the Eagles will be explosive. The key will be how BG starts, playing Troy and at Marshall for two winnable games in their first 4. However, I see the toughest tests coming at home and no guaranteed road victories. I still think they could get to .500, maybe even 7-5, but 4 or 5 wins at best seems realistic.
Buffalo- You have to give Turner Gill credit. He took a program that didn't seem ready for Div I-A and turned them into winners the last two seasons. Now the question is whether or not they can maintain that success without QB Drew Willy. Sophomore Zach Maynard may not be ready for primetime at QB, but with TB James Starks and the explosive Naaman Roosevelt at WR, he has a great supporting cast that can only help his learning curve. The OL only has 2 returnees, so the running game will be a concern without a proven passer under center. One positive is the defense returns 8 starters, which could help them win games early while the offense finds its rhythm. Then again, the defense was hardly impressive last season, even allowing Temple, who seemed to be in a coma offensively most of the season, to put up good yards and points. Their sack total was borderline reprehensible, something Tedy Bruschi or Rob Waldrop would have had at Arizona in the mid-90s by mid-season. Anyways, that's enough badgering of the defense, because I can't say anything nice about them except hopefully another season will help. Anyways, the schedule is not bad, but a loss at UTEP could create a bad feeling and then Pitt at home and UCF on the road are not cupcakes. I think everything hinges on how they start the season and I don't see things going well. Plus, playing Central and Western Michigan from the MAC West does not help them. I see 4-5 wins, but the main wildcard is Maynard. If he grasps the offense quickly, the East is not very top-heavy, so 7-8 is realistic as well. Who knows really.
Kent St.- It seems crazy to think that the Golden Flashes could get better after losing do-it-all QB Julius Edelman, but that may just be the case. Giorgio Morgan is a reliable QB who should do well, as long as he doesn't forget how to hand the ball to All-America caliber RB Eugene Jarvis. I think Jarvis tops 1500 yards easy, maybe 2000 if he becomes the focus of the offense. The receivers will get plenty of help with Iowa transfer Anthony Bowman while the rest of the group may not be spectacular, they are reliable, which is all Coach Martin could ask for in this run-dominant offense. They also lose only one OL which means they should still be good offensively. The DL is a major strength as well with Kevin Hogan, Sam Frist and Aaron Hull returning. The secondary is dependable, mostly thanks to S Brian Lainhart, and will help them win more than a few games. I can see a 4-2 start for the Flashes if they upset either Iowa St. or Boston College, the latter of which has become a distinct possibility since QB Dominique Davis' departure. I could see 7 or 8 wins and probably a .500 record in their future. They may not make my surprise teams list, but good things could come to Kent this fall.
Miami (OH)- Yet again, the major story will be the QB play. However, this time a key figure returns under center in Daniel Raudabaugh, who has all the talent and experience, but needs to cut down on interceptions big-time. Chris Givens and Dustin Woods are highly-capable receivers and they return 5 or 6 weapons on the flanks, and with Thomas Merriweather at TB, the offense could be one of the best in the MAC if they come together early in the season. The defense is the confusing issue for the Redhawks as they didn't allow very many yards through the air, but then again, they played a lot of teams who had below-average passing attacks. Without a lot of experience on D, the real issue all season will be if they can hold their opponents enough and not get worn down late in games. I would bet on that being a negative and despite a potentially high-powered offense, I call for 3 or 4 wins at best. This is also due to a very tough non-conference schedule.
Ohio- Ok, so I was reading Phil Steele's magazine and he had Theo Scott as the starter which means either Frank Solich and his OC are high, or they are complete idiots (or Steele is making a dumb prediction). There is no way in hell the Bobcats should be deviating from the Boo Jackson plan at QB because he has been outstanding because he creates a lot of plays with his feet, can pass well enough and has turned around a program that has been used to losing (except for 2006) much like Juice Williams at Illinois. Donte Harden are two very good RBs and the passing game has enough weapons at wideout to make up for the loss of dangerous TE Andrew Mooney. Mooney became one of those players last season whose reputation for being a receiving threat opened up holes in the defense for other receivers, so he will be missed. On defense, Lee Renfro and Noah Keller are good LBs and CB Thad Turner and S Steven Jackson can make this a strong unit. The DL may have plenty of returning contributors, but they will need to make more plays if they hope to contend for the MAC East title. I see Temple, Kent or Ohio coming out of the division with the crown so, Ohio has the advantage getting both of them at home. The good news for Ohio is they avoid all the directional Michigan teams in the MAC and even games at Ball St. and Buffalo aren't too bad since they will both be losing starting QBs. This all boils down to the Scott/Jackson situation; if Scott starts I call for 6-6 or 7-5 and a wide open MAC East race, but if Jackson gets the nod, they go 8-4, possibly climbing up to 9 wins and cruise to the MAC title game.
Temple- The good news for the Owls is despite losing a very good QB, Vaughn Charlton is an experienced replacement and Jason Harper and Dy'Onne Crudup are steady, but not outstanding receivers. I believe Delano Green could be another contributor at WR but the most important part of the offense is getting the ground game up and running. Syracuse transfer, and former LB Lamar McPherson apparently has the inside track at RB, but Kee-ayre Griffin and Joe Jones are not bad. The problem is they need to focus on running more and that may happen with 3 of 5 OL returning. The defense is the real strength however, as anyone would know who watched an Owls game last year. In six games last year the Owls allowed 12 points or less. The problem is they lost two of those games, but nonetheless, Jamal Schulters, Dominique Harris and Jaiquawn Jarrett make up 75% of the best secondary in the MAC. Heck, the fourth starter could be a midget and the secondary would be damn good. DE Junior Galette is a fierce pass-rusher and the front seven is very experienced and can tackle very well, which is rare with smaller programs. I think Temple is the most capable, and most logical contender for Ohio, but their offense has to improve immensely to be a real contender. They have three winnable non-conference games, but playing at Toledo, Akron and Ohio will be a tough test. If they pass, I see as many as 8 wins and a MAC East title.
Ok, when I return we shall dissect the MAC West together. Come back again soon.
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