Sun Belt Preview

Oh yeah, it's time to get back to the college football world. Welcome to the mecca of college football discussion. You will get a breakdown of every single conference, every single team and just about everything you could want in Div I-A (I refuse to call it FBS because there are too many BS's in college football nowadays). You'll laugh, you'll cry, you'll hurl. Wait, wasn't that on the movie poster for Wayne's World? Anyways, the best part about all of this is you get everything for free. So, let's skip the foreplay and get into the teams.

Arkansas St.- Well, this team could be good once again, a possible darkhorse for the Sun Belt crown. With Reggie Arnold back again at TB and Corey Leonard at QB they could be a scare for Nebraska and Iowa on the road, although it will be hard to duplicate any upset road victories like the one they pulled at Texas A&M last year. With a good secondary and a dominant DE in Alex Carrington (10.5 sacks) they will have a good shot at taking down Florida Atlantic and Troy, the two most dominant teams in the Sun Belt the last few years. They will need to step things up on special teams after being subpar in KR and PR and losing their punter. The K they do have is consistent and one of the best, but they will have to get by Troy in late September to have a good shot at the title. The Red Wolves' best bet is to lean on Arnold and keep the offensive balanced with most of their receivers returning. I could see 7-5 or 8-4 in their future.

Florida Atlantic- Just the fact that QB Rusty Smith and WR Cortez Gent are still around makes me feel old. Those two are a great combo and with TEs Jason Harmon and Jamari Grant back to help out the passing game, Smith could easily surpass 3,500 yards. Heck, he may have to with a running game that is very inexperienced. The fact that this program has back-to-back bowl wins would make one think they are on the rise. However, all of that momentum may be halted by a defense that loses a ton of starters. The secondary may be able to recover and do well, but the front 7 will take awhile to gel. They couldn't rush the passer last year and likely won't do that this season unless a star emerges. The schedule also does not favor them going to Louisiana and Troy while finishing the season with a good up-and-coming FIU squad. I predict 6-6 or 7-5, even with Wyoming and UAB on the schedule, both winnable games.

Florida International- Well, the bad news is that the Panthers lost their top 2 rushers from last season. The good news; their running game sucked anyways, so they can only improve. Besides that, with a stud like TY Hilton at wideout, they won't need to run too much. Hilton will be a lesser-known version of Ted Ginn Jr. as he can return kicks and punts and average a good 20+ yard plus per reception (I spared USC fans some pain by not comparing him to R. Jay Soward). They have 10 offensive starters back, including the entire OL, which should help the run game. Also, an experienced passer in Paul McCall means the offense should improve. The defense may not be as strong with a DL that needs immediate help, but a strong secondary may bend but not break during the conference schedule. The non-conference is brutal playing at Alabama, Rutgers and Florida. Anthony Gaitor is a potential All-American at CB but the team will go only as far as McCall's arm and Hilton's speed takes them. I say 5-7, with an upside of 7-5 max.

Louisiana Ragin' Cajun- This program should thank the lord they have a good OL returning and a defense that should keep them competitive. Losing QB Michael Desormeaux, RB Tyrell Fenroy and WR Jason Cherry will be tough to replace. That may be the biggest collection of losses on offense for any one team because it's much tougher for a club in the Sun Belt to just replace three standouts. Brad McGuire looked decent when playing but he has a tough job with no real experienced RBs returning. The question is whether or not the strength of the receiving corps, relative to the rest of the offense, dictates a more down-the-field approach rather than ball-control and option. The defense is in good hands with a great set of LBs returning, a strong DL and only losing a SS in the secondary. The defense was a bit shaky at times, making them underachieve, but returning so many starters should help them make tremendous strides. Catching Kansas State in week 2 without Josh Freeman at QB for the Wildcats is a big break. The real problem will be going to FIU, Arkansas St. and Middle Tennessee for three consecutive weeks late in the season. Although the defense could carry them to a .500 season, the offense is on life support. I'll call for 3-9 or 4-8.

Middle Tennessee- Maybe it was dropping the state from the end of their name, but whatever it is, this program has not been the same since being a perennial power in Div I-AA before they stepped up divisions. While Dwight Dasher did not look good at QB in mop-up duty last year, he has looked impressive before in his college career and the rest of the offense returns intact. Phillip Tanner is an underrated RB and he has 5 good receivers coming back. While only one receiver had a good yards per catch average, the offense should be explosive as long as Dasher matures and regains his confidence. Their defense loses 3 good LBs, including one standout, which is never a good sign, but as seems to be the norm in this conference, they return a strong secondary. They have some good DL who can get to the QB and what they lack in superstars, they make up for in productivity. Despite a brutal non-conference schedule where they probably will come away with zero wins, they only need get by Troy and FAU on the road to have a good shot at the conference title. However, I see a bad start with their schedule that they won't be able to recover from until it's too late. I'll go 6-6 with an upside of 7-5 if they get by both FAU and Troy.

North Texas- This is the great unknown in the Sun Belt conference. I see far better days ahead for the Mean Green, especially with the coach's son, Riley Dodge, set to take over at QB. Dodge can run and perhaps this offense should be a lot more run-oriented. While they shouldn't be a pure option club, a nice mix, such as the one Rich Rodriguez had set up at Tulane with Shaun King would work perfectly. Cam Montgomery is maybe the best RB in the conference and Micah Mosley and Lance Dunbar are very good backups. The receivers are not very experienced but will put up good numbers in this offense. Losing Casey Fitzgerald is something they cannot recover from with one player, so the entire starting OL that returns will have to give Dodge time to hit his targets and develop a good rhythm. Starting at Ball St. and home against Ohio won't be too difficult with a game against Army late in the season winnable. The team does return 9 starters on defense, but as bad as the defense was last year, that's not a good thing. They allowed under 40 points only twice. TWICE!! The LBs are strong but the secondary is shaky at best. I don't see a huge upgrade in wins right away, but they will be much more competitive, so I'll go 4-8 with an upside of 6-6 if they go 2-2 in non-conference. However, that is being very optimistic to say the least.

Troy- This will be another strong squad led by Larry Blakeney and as long as the defense can patch up a few holes in the secondary, they will cruise to another conference title. The LBs are outstanding and the DL can rush the passer like no one else in the SBC. The offense has a strong leader in Levi Brown at QB and various threats at WR including Jerrel Jernigan, RB DuJuan Harris and OK transfer Josh Jarboe is expected to be a big contributor. The OL is good, but they don't have either of their tackles returning so if the protection falters and Brown has no time to throw, the Trojans may struggle. However, this is not very likely, and playing at Bowling Green and home against UAB provides a manageable non-conference schedule. They have to play at Arkansas St. early in the season and a loss could derail their title chances. Despite Troy's experience and pedigree, I see the ASU-Troy tilt as being the title decider and the Red Wolves coming out on top. I think Troy could still finish 7-5, maybe even 9-3, but that's with all the breaks going their way.

ULM- The Warhawks may lose a very good leader in QB Kinsmon Lancaster, but Trey Revell is a good dual-threat option who should fill in nicely. Frank Goodin is a fantastic runner and receiver out of the backfield and Darrell McNeal could be a stud at WR if they let him loose. Anthony McCall is another good receiver, but losing TE Zeek Zacharie will hurt their productivity somewhat. The OL returns 4 of 5 so they should protect Revell enough to find his plethora of weapons while still opening up holes for Goodin. The schedule is brutal going on the road to Texas, Arizona St. and Kentucky, plus they play SBC powers Troy and FAU away from home. The defense is not as solid as the offense, but DE Aaron Morgan can rush the passer and LB Cardia Jackson is a solid all-around player. The secondary is solid in every way possible, no real weaknesses, which will help immensely in this conference. I think 4-8 is realistic with a tough overall schedule, but the upside is 6-6 and that's about all.

Western Kentucky- Oh, where have you gone Willie Taggart. The former standout QB may have only thrown for 1,000 yards once, but he ran for nearly 4,000 during an illustrious career. This paved the way for a good recruiting class that produced a national title in 2002. This team will struggle immensely with no one of any experience at QB. They could win against Central Arkansas, but that's about it. They do get a star back at TB in Tyrell Hayden and two other contributors in Bobby Rainey and Marell Booker. Possibly the lone bright side for whoever starts at QB is they get an experienced group of receivers coming back. The depressing part is the defense where they return Blake Boyd and Darvis McBride, two very good LBs coming back, but little else. This will be a brutal season for Hilltoppers fans who may only experience one win, and not even from a Div I-A opponent. Bad times indeed.

Well, there's your first conference preview, check in down the road for the MAC.