WAC Preview

Well, this has been a one-horse league forever, and it's hard to see that changing anytime soon. Personally, I feel that two teams need to move to the Mountain West conference, preferably Nevada and Boise State and leave Fresno State and others to duel it out for the WAC title. Then, you promote Montana from Div I-AA and watch them become another Marshall as they flourish in a much lower-tier league. And if 11 teams is too much for the MWC without two divisions and a conference title game, then you move Fresno or relegate New Mexico or UNLV to the WAC. Too bad all of this will never happen. Anyways, let's get to the preview.

Boise St.- Uh oh, it looks like the alphabetical order setup dictates that we're shooting our wad early with the Broncos. This team should again dominate with a home game against Nevada and only one real road test, at Fresno St. standing in their way. Sophomore QB Kellen Moore may not improve much upon last year's stats with only good WR back, Austin Pettis back, but he does have a good TE in Kyle Efaw returning as well. Ian Johnson's dramatic drop-off in productivity last year was BSU's gain as Jeremy Avery proved to be a fabulous second banana. DJ Harper is another good back that will produce behind a good OL. The defense should still be good despite losing 6 starters and the strength is in the secondary with CBs Kyle Wilson and Brandyn Thompson and FS Jeron Johnson. Derrell Acrey is an ok LB, but Aaron Tevis was just as productive taking fewer snaps. They will need dramatic improvement at LB to remain a top-flight program. The DL can rush the passer, but they will need to stop the outstanding ground games of Nevada and Fresno State to win this conference again. I will call for 9 or 10 wins yet again for this program, but playing against the likes of Oregon and Tulsa will provide some tough tests.

Fresno St.- If the Bulldogs are smart they will rely on a good OL and the talented backfield trio of Lonyae Miller, Anthony Harding and Ryan Mathews to help the new QB, whoever it may be, ease into his new role. That backfield should make for one of the country's deepest units. Another bright spot for the new QB will be the return of Seyi Ajirotutu and Marlon Moore at WR, with Devon Wylie and Rashad Evans providing plenty of depth. The one thing that could derail the Bulldogs' season is the defense which was struggling during a four-game stretch against Toledo, UCLA, Idaho and Hawaii last season (149 points). Now, the offense was able to make up for that ineptness and win 3 of the 4 games, but they cannot rely on that again this season. They do return 8 starters, but the secondary is pitiful. Their leader in INTs had 2 and is projected to be a backup while the DL has potential at best, with only Chris Carter being able to rush the passer. The LBs also struggled to produce so without a ton of improvement I see a down season for this usually stable program. This may be pessimistic, but I call them for only 5 or 6 wins as the schedule is very tough and the WAC is improving each season, especially the teams at the bottom.

Hawaii- It's best to get the defense out of the way because the glaring weakness. It's not that Hawaii was bad defensively last season, they were actually not bad, but with 2 returning starters, expect a serious step backwards. The good news is they have DE John Fonoti who could be a rising star, but they will need Oregon State transfer Mana Silva and CBs Melvin Hopkins and Jeramy Bryant to find their way quickly as new starters. Hopefully, the Warriors' offense will be a lot more settled now that they have chosen Greg Alexander to be the starter at QB. He doesn't throw a lot of picks and is very accurate, so SB/WR Kealoha Pilares and WRs, Malcolm Lane, Greg Salas and Daniel Lofton could have monster seasons. Lofton could be a huge star as he has the pedigree of being James Lofton's son, a soon-to-be NFL Hall of Famer. I also like Leon Wright-Jackson at TB who could produce good numbers for a RB in this system. The OL needs to replace 2 OGs, so assuming they do that with even decent players, Alexander should have plenty of time to throw and approach 4,000 yards. This is an offense that should be just like Texas Tech's in how they keep producing effective passers. The schedule is rough with Boise State and Fresno State coming to the big island, games they would probably lose anyways, and road games at UNLV, Louisiana Tech, Nevada and San Jose St. How they handle those tests will determine if they get to my max prediction of 6-7 wins.

Idaho- The first thing to note here is that the Vandals really need to break a stretch of losing and gain just 4-5 wins to gain some momentum within the program. All this could be accomplished with winnable road games at New Mexico St. and Northern Illinois early in the season. San Diego St. will travel to the Kibble Dome and haven't been much of a threat in recent seasons so it remains to be seen what will happen there. RB Deonte' Jackson has major potential and should be used as more of a feature back with Princeton McCarty capable of spelling him when he needs a break. Nathan Enderle is a good QB and thankfully he has two good WRs returning because he loses all-world TE Eddie Williams. Idaho does lose 3 starters on the OL but they still have experience from their college careers, just not in 2008. Isaac Butts should be the leader on defense as he is a CB with a lot of potential and decent size at 6". Virdell Larkins should continue to provide range at FS, but JoJo Dickson and Robert Siavii need to produce at LB for this defense to be solid, especially with a lot of good running teams around the conference. There are no outstanding pass rushers coming back, so if they can't get to the passer, that will only hurt the secondary and could cost them a few games. This is a team that has little room for error and I will call for 4-5 wins at best, but if things start going wrong early, that might be optimistic.

Louisiana Tech- The key for the Bulldogs will be finding a viable backup to take the pressure off of all-conference RB Daniel Porter, especially with all 5 starters on the OL returning. If Myke Compton doesn't fit that bill, then it should be time to turn to incoming freshman Tyrone Duplessis who not only ran track in HS but was a highly-rated all-purpose back by Rivals.com. Ross Jenkins returns at QB and will only improve with experience, but RP Stuart and Cruz Williams needs to emerge as another threat at WR to compliment Phillip Livas. I think LT will be fine on defense despite losing two good starters at LB and having no returning CBs. I think Terry Carter will be fine at one corner and with Deon Young and Antonio Baker returning at the safety spots, the secondary might surprisingly be a strength. The DL is very good as they have productivity in numbers rather than just a single star. Losing a starting K always looks bad, but when that K only hit 50% of FGs, then it's a good thing and Livas is a stud returning kicks and punts. Assuming they win at Navy they should go .500 in non-conference and all their conference road games are winnable, but at Fresno and Nevada won't be easy. If they break even on those two, I see possibly 8 wins, although 6-7 looks more likely.

Nevada- This Wolf Pack team has a legitimate shot at breaking Boise St.'s stranglehold on the conference. Even though they have to travel to the blue turf, the defense is good enough to hold up this season. DEs Dontay Moch and Kevin Basped are two of the nations best at getting to the passer and despite an inexperienced LB corps, the secondary will help the defense stay strong. Mo Harvey and Jonathon Amaya are good safeties who make QBs pay for bad decisions and Isaiah Frey and Antoine Thompson are good cover corners. Assuming the defense keeps the plot and holds steady, Nevada will have an outstanding season. On offense, if Luke Lippincott can return to his 2007 form, then he, Vai Taua, and QB Colin Kaepernick may be the best three running threats on one team in the country. Taua and Kaepernick combined for over 2,600 yards, 32 TDs and both averaged over 6 yards per carry. They lose two starters on the OL but a JUCO transfer and new C Kenneth Ackerman, who has started at G before, will ease the transition. The question is, why would Nevada throw unless they have to? They do have a solid TE in Virgil Green and Chris Wellington is a viable deep threat, but the Wolf Pack need to just wear down teams on the DL and they should do fine. A road game at Notre Dame and Missouri at home seem like two key tests, but Missouri has upset potential written all over it as the Tigers have no QB with real experience. If Nevada can stay focused and not look ahead to Nov. 27th when they play at Boise St., then 10-11 wins is well within their grasp. The key will be the defense staying strong as the offense should continue to flourish.

New Mexico St.- The Aggies will have a rough season in 2009 as their head coach is relying on a lot of JUCO transfers to fill in the holes and while that can work well for a limited time, it's not good for the program's long-term goals. The other problem is, Jeff Fleming, one of those transfers expected to fill in at QB, has a daunting task of replacing Chase Holbrook, who was amazingly efficient for a QB on a bad team. The good news is Marquell Colston and Tonny Glynn could be decent RBs if they got more carries and Marcus Anderson is a solid #1 WR. Julius Fleming is the only WR with any real experience, so two JUCO players in William Bullock and Marcus Allen better learn the system right away or this will be a horrific offense. The OL is decent, but Jeff Fleming better not take too much time while he's in the pocket. The defense only has one plus, and that is return of 3 starting LBs, but when you consider this defense allowed 30+ points nine times, that's not necessarily a good thing. Davon House is a solid CB but unless Jonte Green can shutdown the other side, the defense will get eaten alive again. The first two games will be the key point in NMSU season as they play Idaho and Prairie View A&M at home, which could result in wins, but then things go downhill. New Mexico and San Diego St. may be winnable games if the Aggies got them in Las Cruces, but on the road are more than likely losses. I'll call 1-2 wins being optimistic unless they pull a shocking upset or two.

San Jose St.- The Spartans are a very confusing team because they have most of the pieces on defense to succeed, but the offense was just pitiful last year. Carl and Duke Ihenacho were two of the best defenders on any team in the country last year and should remain All-WAC candidates again this year. DT Adonis Davis and DE Mohamed Marah should increase their production this year, and assuming they do that, the new CBs will be helped out immensely. Brandon Driver should provide immediate help as a JUCO transfer and should get a lot of help from Duke Ihenacho who plays the same type of position Brian Uhrlacher did when he was at New Mexico (which means he will be everywhere). The offense, on the other hand, may have some problems getting started despite the return of Kyle Reed as a starter. Reed never developed much of a flow as a starter last year and needs to be more efficient than 6 yards a pass attempt. Having WR Terrance Williams and Kevin Jurovich back should help him achieve that goal, but not as much as having his entire OL back to protect him and RB Patrick Perry finally healthy. Perry should team up with another JUCO, Lamon Muldrow to make for an exciting running game. Muldrow doesn't have top-flight speed, but the ground game should be focused on wearing down opponents and setting up an efficient passing game. The non-conference is tough but a win at Stanford or at home to Utah will set them up nicely. All of their home games should be wins, except Nevada who will be a tough test while going 2-2 on the road in the conference should actually be a positive as none of the road tests are easy. I'll call for a break-even season, maybe 7 wins. This all depens on Reed though and how he progresses with his WRs.

Utah St.- This is truly the wildcard team of the WAC because they will only go as far as QB Diondre Borel takes them. He has a lot of help surrounding him at the WR spot with strength in numbers thanks to Nnamdi Gachem, Stanley Morrison, Omar Sawyer and TE Doug Barbour. The running game should be ok with newcomer Michael Smith, but I would prefer to see them stick with Robert Turbin or Curtis Marsh who weren't bad. The main threat on the ground could still be Borel, but he needs to limit how many hits he takes because if he's gone, so goes the Aggies season. The defense, much like a lot of other teams in the WAC will depend on the secondary and a new CB from the JUCO ranks; this time it's Rajric Coleman. He steps into an ok position where FS James Brindley is very consistent and he can learn from Kejon Murphy, a good cover man. The DL, much like the WR corps, has no stars but a lot of depth and will provide solid play. The LBs should be good thanks to Paul Igboeli and Bobby Wagner. The schedule looks a bit rough but if they can shock fellow Aggies Texas A&M (not out of the realm of possibility) they will start 2-2 before a rough WAC schedule. They get no favors hosting 4 of the top 5 teams in the WAC and going to Idaho and Hawaii, which will be crucial games. If they win at New Mexico State and split HI/ID, I'll call for maybe 6 wins, but 4 looks realistic. It's too bad because this team has a lot of potential too.

Well, tomorrow we break down C-USA, most likely the Eastern division which has a lot of talented teams looking to climb towards the top.