Big East Preview

This used to be a power conference back when Louisville, West Virginia and Rutgers, to a point, were consistently being ranked in the top 10 and winning BCS games. Most recently, the likes of UConn, South Florida and Cincinnati have become much better teams, consistently making bowls and presenting a real challenge to the conference's elite. Let's get to it.

Cincinnati- Ok, I've been subscribing and buying college football annuals since 1992 and never can I remember a defense returning just one starter like Cincinnati does this year. Safe to say, the defense will not be good, even though Aaron Webster is a fine SS and DL Curtis Young and John Hughes could be decent pass rushers. Andre Revels is also a fine LB, but with no experience in a 4-man LB set, things don't look good. On offense, this may have been the Big East's best if the NCAA had accepted Vidal Hazelton's request to play in 2009. However, the Bearcats will still be very good thanks to QB Tony Pike and a slew of talented receivers. Mardy Gilyard and Marcus Barnett should be great again this season and former QB, now TE, Ben Guidugli, will only get better with experience. John Goebel, Jacob Ramsey and Isaiah Pead should make a good three-headed combo at RB, but I don't expect big numbers from them as a whole. With the defense the way it is, I don't like Cincinnati's chances at Oregon St. or against Illinois and Fresno St. at home. They will be lucky to come away 4-1 or even 3-2 in non-conference. Facing West Virginia at home and road trips to USF, Rutgers and Pitt will be tough tests. I think 6-7 wins is the high-mater wark for this club, but 8 is not out of reach.

Connecticut- I still can't believe this team won 8 games last season because no one could figure out the four basic plays the offense ran all season; Donald Brown left, Donald Brown right, Donald Brown up the middle, and a horribly thrown play action pass by former QB Tyler Lorenzen. Now, without Brown, this is a mediocre team at best. Jordan Todman won't be able to carry half the load Brown did, while whoever steps in at QB will have an awful receiving corps, except for Michael Smith. DE Lindsey Witten was a nice pass rusher in limited action and DT Twyon Martin will be a nice contributor as well. The LBs are outstanding with Scott Lutrus, Greg Lloyd, and Lawrence Wilson leading the way. At the secondary positions the Huskies are all set with ball-hawking safeties Aaron Bagsby and Robert Vaughn completing fantastic cover corners Jasper Howard and Robert McClain. The defense is what ultimately carried the Huskies last year (as did Brown) and UConn must rely on that again in 2009. I see the schedule as being a problem with UNC and road games atBaylor and Notre dame. Even traveling to Ohio is tricky as the Bobcats upset Pitt a few years ago on national TV. I see a 2-3 non-conference outcome and then a brutal conference slate. I guess Syracuse is winnable, maybe Louisville. Four wins is my max give here, five if they catch EVERY break imaginable. This team will be awful offensively and I hope I don't have to watch them on TV this season a lot.

Louisville- Assuming transfer Justin Burke is the answer at QB, Louisville will be on the rise. Burke should be ok thanks to standout WR Doug Beaumont and his supporting cast of speedy Trent Guy, reliable Scott Long and huge (6'8) Josh Chichester. Not to mention having good receivers, Burke will inherit Victor Anderson, only a sophomore, who is a bulldozer and should be good for 250-300 carries and 1500 yards easy. It doesn't hurt to have three good starters back on the OL as well. On defense, Jon Dempsey and Antwon Canady were good, but not great at LB, and the DL is not going to fare well with just one returning starter. The DL was bad enough last year at rushing the passer, so any bit of regression will cost them a few wins. Johnny Patrick and Daniel Covington are good DBs, and if JUCO newcomer Preston Pace, who has blistering speed, is a quick learner, the secondary will be outstanding and help a very underwhelming defense overall. If the Cardinals can take two out of three going to Utah and Kentucky and at home against Southern Miss, then a bowl game should be within reach. It won't be easy however. Syracuse and Rutgers are manageable home games while going to UConn will decide who truly belongs in the lower-half. I'll say five wins, with six and a bowl game being realistic.

Pittsburgh- It will be tough for the Panthers to replace LaSean McCoy and his contributions at TB, but they have a host of options, including newcomers Dion Lewis and Ray Graham. They both have good speed and should be a nice 50/50 tandem. Whoever starts and however the carries are divided, the running game will benefit from having four starters back on the O-line. Coach Wannstedt better hope the running game comes together because the passing game is not very stable. Bill Stull is a reliable signal-caller, but throws too many INTs. Oderick Turner and Jonathan Baldwin are stable receiving threats, but nothing spectacular. Pitt should be solid again on defense, especially with DEs Greg Romeus and Jabaal Sheard returning, who could easily improve on the 13 combined sacks they had in 2008. Mick Williams is also fine at DT, but only LB Greg Williams is a standout and unless the other two starters come along, the LBs will be a glaring weakness. Aaron Berry is an outstanding CB and SS Dom DeCicco is an overachiever, which could make for a decent secondary. Pitt has a very interesting non-conference schedule because they play Navy, which is always a tough game, and a road tilt with NC State will be very difficult. A home game with Notre Dame will be another tough test, but one they could easily pass. In conference they get USF and Cincinnati at home, which will be quite beneficial, but a road game with rival West Virginia will make or break their chances at winning the Big East. I'll call for eight wins at least and could easily see them getting up to nine or ten.

Rutgers- The Scarlet Knights have a good stable of RBs, including Kordell Young and Jourdan Brooks, who will benefit quite nicely from 4 returning starters on the O-line. Tim Brown is a fine WR, but he will hurt by the loss of Tiquan Underwood and Kenny Brittt, two outstanding playmakers. Shamar Graves may help him out at TE, but I don't think the QB position will be very stable. Unless the Knights lean on the ground game or a new QB develops out of thin air, the offense will struggle mightily. On defense, Alex Silvestro and George Johnson are fine DEs, but really need to up their productivity. The LBs will be a strong group if Michigan transfer Marcus Witherspoon can contribute right away because Ryan D'Imperio is a solid player, as is Manny Abreu, who has loads of potential. The secondary will have to gel right away because although Devin McCourty is an ok cover corner, he will need help from David Rowe and returning safety Joe Lefeged. The non-conference schedule is pitiful as they will be playing two Div I-AA opponents in Howard and Texas Southern. They also get a sure win against FIU and trips to Maryland and Army which won't be too tough, but the Terps always have upset potential. I think every conference home game is 50/50 because WV and USF are among the elite, while Cincinnati and Pitt could be very good yet again. The only trick in-conference road game is Louisville. I'll call for somewhere between six and eight wins unless a new QB develops immediately. Seven wins sounds just about right.

South Florida- The Bulls success or failure on offense really depends on two important areas; first is whether or not Matt Grothe can improve on an 18-to-14 TD-to-INT ratio from 2008. Second, can Mike Ford finally become the feature back he was destined to be. Ford has all the size, speed and talent, but can never stay healthy enough to be relied upon full-time. I think Carlton Mitchell, Jessie Hester and AJ Love could make up the best receiving corps in the Big East if they play up to their potential. The OL will be a major weakness with just one returning starter so Grothe will have to scramble a lot again this season. Grothe could even become USF's all-time leading rusher as he just needs 647 yards (he had 591 in 2008). If DE George Selvie can become a dominant pass rusher again, the defense will benefit greatly. Terrell McClain is a fine DT and he, along with the rest of the defensive line, should put up good numbers next to Selvie who will be double-teamed a lot. Kion Wilson is a dependable LB, but this unit as a whole needs to produce on a more consistent basis. Jerome Murphy could be a stud at CB, but he needs Quenton Washington to step up his game, especially in a conference where a lot of teams have more than one talented WR. The safety position will be ok as I think Jerrell Young, who put up good numbers in limited action last season, will be a solid starter. USF could start 4-0 if they can beat Florida St. on the road and then the conference schedule starts off with a bang against Syracuse on the road, which could be tricky. Luckily, the Bulls get Cincinnati, Louisville and WV at home and a road game with Pitt is in late October, which means it won't be too cold and the Bulls have a decent shot at getting the road win. I still don't see the Bulls winning the Big East, but I certainly don't see why eight or nine wins is out of the question.

Syracuse- Hey, it's the owners of the stupidest move of the decade; Syracuse went from those beloved Orange helmets, which were as classic as Penn St. and Notre Dame and those hideous letters have caused them nothing but trouble since. They have gone 10-37 since the helmet change, need I say more? If Phil Steele is correct, I don't like the idea of replacing Cameron Dantley at QB, who despite his poor completion percentage had a good TD-to-INT ratio. I think Delone Carter will be a fantastic RB if he gets the same amount of carries as Curtis Brinkley got last season. Donte Davis and Lavar Lobdell aren't outstanding receivers, but Mike Williams is a budding superstar and should be fine after being suspended in 2008. Arthur Jones is a fantastic DT and can only get better, but the rest of the DL needs help as they have limited experience. The LBs are solid with Derrell Smith and Mike Mele, but they will have to improve if the Orange are going to get more than their 3 wins last year. The secondary is just as bad as the rest of the defense with Mike Holmes being a glimmer of hope. Facing Penn St. on the road and Minnesota, Northwestern and Akron is not a beneficial non-conference schedule. I think the Zips could even pull off an upset here, much like they almost did in 2008. The in-conference schedule is even more brutal as they get possibly the 3 best teams (WV, Cincy and USF) all at home. They better pull off a few upsets to get past the three wins I'm predicting (and that's being generous).

West Virginia- Everyone seems to be down on the Mountaineers because they lose Pat White, one of the best starting QBs in recent memory. However, many people seem to forget they have Jarrett Brown back, who has been more than a capable fill-in whenever White got hurt (which was frequently). Brown has decent speed, although not as fast as White, and is a very accurate passer. Noel Devine should be outstanding yet again as a feature back, while newcomer Tavis Austin could produce big things, much like the last superstar from Dunbar HS, Arrelious Benn who went to Illinois. Jock Sanders is a versatile slot receiver/running back who could go well over 1,500 yards all-purpose with the right amount of carries and balls thrown his way. Alric Arnett and Bradley Starks are very capable WRs, while Wes Lyons at 6'8" should be used much more effectively. The OL will be hurting with just one starter back, but with this offensive scheme, they should still be able to come together quickly. While not outstanding, I think DL Scooter Berry and Chris Neild could be big-time players with more experience. JT Thomas and Reed Williams are also solid LBs in the 3-3-5 scheme which has worked quite well for the Mountaineers over the last few seasons. Sidney Glover is also a fine safety and Brandon Hogan is a fabulous cover corner who should be effective again this year. Franchot Allen is asked to do multiple things from his DB spot and will be quite a standout with more playing time (starts). Back-to-back games with East Carolina at home and Auburn on the road will be pivotal tests for this team who hasn't played a lot of games together on both sides of the ball. I think they will get revenge in a big way against Colorado at home and Marshall is a sure-fire win. The only real tests in conference will be at Cincinnati and USF, while the "Backyard Brawl" with Pitt usually determines whether they win the Big East or not. While the non-conference schedule looks like it plays out nicely, this club always makes one or two mistakes in big games they should win. I'll call for 9 wins and a Big East title, with 10-11 being an outside chance, only if Brown is better than advertised (he has major DJ Shockley potential).