Wednesday, June 24, 2009

MWC Preview

Air Force- The Falcons really overachieved last year considering QB Tim Jefferson started as a freshman (plebe) for most of the season. While they do lose one good RB, TBs Asher Clark and Kyle Lumpkin, FB Jared Tew and WB Kyle Halderman all return as dangerous running threats. Halderman is also a good receiving threat , and if WR Josh Cousins can maintain his productivity, this will be a very dangerous offense. Jefferson should only improve as a passer, and with 3 OL returning, his numbers should only get better as he gains experience. On defense the Falcons return three outstanding starters in the secondary and Reggie Rembert and Anthony Wright could have big seasons against a conference that has many teams with question marks regarding their respective passing games. Ken Lamendola is a stud at LB, and Patrick Hennessey and Andre Morris could be productive, but the key will be how well the DL rushes the passer. Ben Garland and Andre Morris are fine DL, but there needs to be some urgency because a soft schedule could mean lots of wins. While Army and Navy are never easy wins for the Falcons, I think a road trip to Minnesota is the only thing stands in the way of a perfect 4-0 non-conference schedule. TCU is a winnable game at home, but road trips to BYU and Utah are going to be tough, but one for two seems realistic. I'll call for 7 wins at least, but 8 seems a possibility.

BYU- First off, the Cougars have a great QB but need a lot of help at WR and if they don't start Andrew George at one WR spot, then they deserve to struggle. Dennis Pitta is already an All-American caliber TE, so no need for George there. Also, with George's size, he's better than any of the three prospects ahead of him. Luke Ashworth and O'Neill Chambers are solid players, but McKay Jacobson will really have to prove himself. The bad news for BYU is they lose a ton of starters on the O-line, which could hurt Harvey Unga unless they gel right away. The Cougars return all of their starters on the DL, but unfortunately, only DE Jan Jorgensen is a standout player. Matt Bauman and Coleby Clawson are good LBs, but they will need some help from returning starter Shawn Doman who made a lot of tackles but no real big plays. Scott Johnson is a decent safety, but unless JUCO transfer Brian Logan or Brandon Howard plays well, the secondary will be a major weakness. An early trip to the Lone Star State will be a painful one for the Cougars against Oklahoma, but a home game with Florida St. is winnable and thus, a 3-1 non-conference record is plausible. A road game to UNLV won't be easy, but home games against the other elite teams in the conference, TCU, Utah and Air Force give the Cougars a good shot at winning the conference. A 9 or 10 win season is not out of reach.

Colorado St.- This is going to be an interesting season for the Rams; on the one hand, they have a great OL with no experienced RBs to benefit and two outstanding WRs with no dependable QB to get them the ball. Go figure. Rashaun Greer and Dion Morton are great at going deep or being posession receivers, while Klay Kubiak should be the starting QB because of his familiarity with the offense, but it looks like Grant Stucker will win the job. Stucker apparently has the inside track on the job because of his dual-threat ability, but for the long-term goal, Kubiak should get the go-ahead. However, a senior-laden offense has potential, but that's with a capital "p," no guarantees. The defense might be ok thanks to CBs Nick Oppenneer and Gerard Thomas, but after that, there is very little to work with. Mychal Sisson is an outstanding LB but he loses Ricky Brewer to help him out and the DL is awful. There is no pass-rushing threat and its stunning that this defense got them to a bowl and a win. Even though I am down on rival Colorado, it is always a winnable game, as is Idaho and Weber St., but after that, only three conference games look winnable. Five or six wins seems like an outside shot, and with the down-trodden teams getting better, I'll call for 4 wins, 5 if they get lucky. There's no Gartrell Johnson to bail this team out, unless a star QB emerges out of nowhere.

New Mexico- Well, the Lobos have potential if QB Donovan Porterie can finally put everything together. However, his success depends on the OC (Mike Locksley) allowing him to throw the ball downfield, which he should, especially with Chris Hernandez and Bryant Williams being talented receivers. Rodney Ferguson is a huge loss at TB, but James Wright has the size to fill in nicely. However, he will be pushed by newcomer Desmond Dennis and speedster Terence Brown. The Lobos defense will be fine if the DL can come together with their fine amount of depth. Clint McPeek is a great LB, capable of plugging the hole and chasing down tacklers on the edge, while also being a pass coverage nuisance. If Carmen Messina can produce as a starter like he did in spot action in 2008, this unit will be a strength. The secondary will be a weakness with the loss of both CBs, but Frankie Solomon and Ian Clark are good safeties who should help out enough to keep them from getting burned deep too often. The Lobos should be able to take care of rival New Mexico St., but they better find another win in their non-conference schedule to have any shot at a bowl. I think Texas A&M is a solid candidate for that win, but isn't very likely. I think with road games at San Diego St. and Wyoming, their two most winnable conference games, this looks like a three or four win team if they catch a few breaks.

San Diego St.- It's funny how the Aztecs used to be the most powerful team in the old WAC conference with BYU and others, but now they are struggling to get to their first bowl since 1998. The Aztecs decline wasn't because of any drop in talent in CA, but inept coaching. However, I think 2009 could be the year they turn things around thanks to the talents of do-it-all TB Attiyah Henderson and precocious sophomore QB Ryan Lindley. Lindley has plenty of WRs to throw to, including standout Vicente Brown, but one of the four main targets he has returning needs to become a viable deep threat. The OL returns plenty of experience and I think if Henderson gets enough carries, 2,000 all-purpose yards is well within his reach (1,500 rushing, 500 receiving). On defense, DEs Jonathan Soto and BJ Williams are solid foundations to begin building around, as is the LB corps where the strength is in numbers, not necessarily individual stars. I hope senior Aaron Moore is up to the task of leading the secondary because if he's not, this will be a glaring weakness. Assuming the Aztecs can go to Idaho and win and beat New Mexico St., a 3-1 non-conference record is a good start to the first month of the season. New Mexico and Wyoming aren't the toughest of tests at home and they travel to Colorado St. and UNLV, where a split there and a clean sweep of NM and WY could provide them the opportunity to go bowling. I'm calling for a realistic shot at a bowl bid and 6 wins.

TCU- Well, the Horned Frogs are set on offense despite having a depleted OL. Andy Dalton is a fine QB who can run when necessary and he has a very explosive receiver in Jimmy Young. Assuming versatile Ryan Christian (TB) and WR Bart Johnson can continue to be dependable receiving threats, Dalton's numbers will only improve. Joseph Turner is an outstanding returning TB while Jeremy Kerley is a player who can do lots of things on offense, much like Christian. On defense, TCU had an amazing 2008, but with the return of just 4 starters, those numbers will be hard to duplicate. DE Jerry Hughes is a phenomenal talent, certainly an All-American candidate, but with not a lot of depth returning on the DL, he will have to carry the load. Rafael Priest and Nick Sanders are very capable CBs, along with FS Tejay Johnson, but the strength of the unit will depend on former QB Marcus Jackson's conversion to strong safety. Road trips to Virginia and Clemson will be tough and if the Horned Frogs play well enough, they could go 2-0, but at the same time, going o-for is just as likely. A rivalry game with SMU is no gimme either, while road trips to Air Force and BYU will be tough to overcome if they want to win the conference. I will call for 7-8 wins with 9 being optimistic.

UNLV- The Rebels will go only as far as QB Omar Clayton can take them, which may not be very far. While Clayton doesn't make many mistakes or throw a lot of INTs, he has looked horrible on the road, not counting the win against Arizona St. last season, but the Sun Devils were far overrated anyways. Ryan Wolfe will be Clayton's main target, but his supporting cast, most notably Phillip Payne and Rodelin Anthony, could put up huge numbers with more emphasis put on the passing game. That emphasis may be necessary with the loss of Frank Summers. Summers was a tank who made the big plays and hopefully for UNLV his replacement, CJ Cox, will evolve into that type of player. Cox's evolution will be necessary since incoming freshman Bradley Randle may not have the speed to be an everyday back. The Rebels do have seven returning starters on defense, but considering they allowed over 40 points six times, that may not be a good thing. The DL is experienced, but will have to improve behind the likes of DE Isaako Aaitui and DT Malo Taumua. Jason Beauchamp and Ronnie Paulo are outstanding LBs that will have to play beyond their potential to compensate for the lack of talent in the secondary. The Rebels better hope for a split against Oregon St. and Hawaii at home because a road trip to rival Nevada is an almost certain loss. The conference schedule won't be easy with Utah and BYU coming to town, while a trip to Wyoming and a home game with San Diego St will be make-it-or-break it encounters. I'll call for three wins, four at best.

Utah- Hopefully the Utes enjoyed last season's undefeated season and incredible run to a BCS bid because 2009 will be a rude awakening. Unless Corbin Louks or Terrance Cain assumes the starting role and doesn't split time with the other, this offense will find it hard to click. Louks is a great runner who's never gotten the chance to prove what he can do throwing the ball, so it's really a toss-up for now. Cain should have the edge with his good speed for a QB and coming from a proven JUCO powerhouse, Blinn, in TX. Whoever gets the job will need to get the ball to WRs David Reed and Jerome Brooks who have plenty of potential. The TE position has often been an integral part of the Utes' offense, so Chris Joppru better emerge as a weapon right away. Matt Asiata will be a fine TB, but he needs someone to help him carry the load because they have an experienced OL and could be just as productive on the ground this year as in 2008. Koa Misi is a good DE who better hope his teammates on the DL can produce because if not, he will have too much of a burden to carry. All of the LBs, including Rover Stevenson Sylvester are good at playing both the run and pass and should help a defense that loses both DTs and CBs get throug the rough patches. Whichever players start at CB will be thankful they have Joe Dale and Robert Johnson playing at the safety spots where they were outstanding last season. While the Utes could go 3-1 in their non-conference schedule, home games with Utah St. and Louisville and a road trip to San Jose St. will not be easy. Home games with Air Force and San Diego St. will be the only standing in the Utes way of an upper-division finish because road trips to TCU and BYU are definite losses. I'm calling for seven or eight wins, with an outside shot at nine if they can survive the non-conference slate with just one loss.

Wyoming- If the Cowboys want a proven signal-caller, then Karsten Sween is the way to go, despite a horrific season last year. However, if they want to gamble and find a QB who can run new head coach Dave Christensen's spread offense that was used at Missouri, then Robert Benjamin should start right away. There's no danger in starting the athletic QB against Weber St. and they could pull an upset at Colorado if he has grasped the offense in time. Sadly, the QB position is quite stable compared to the RB position where Darius Terry seems to have won the job by default. Terry does have good speed, but he needs another back to help him out if they are to match the Moore/Seldon combo from last season. The good news for the starting QB, whoever it may be, is that WRs Greg Bolling, David Leonard and Brandon Stewart all have plenty of talent and size while TE Jesson Salyards only adds to the depth of receivers to throw to. On defense, John Fletcher is a good DE and has DT/NG Fred Givens back starting which should help the pass rush (all 3 starters return on the DL as well). Gabe Knapton and Weston Johnson are productive LBs who will have to have outstanding seasons for the Cowboys to have a shot at a bowl game. Tashaun and Marcell Gipson are good CBs and with Chris Prosinski a ball-hawking FS, the secondary could be a relative strength. The defense should put up good numbers, much like it did last season. Winning at Colorado and Florida Atlantic will be important if the Cowboys want to make a bowl push. The same can be said for road games at Colorado St. and San Diego St., which are also winnable. New Mexico and UNLV could be wins at home, but it all depends on the QB. I want to call for 6-7 wins and a bowl game, which is possible, but 4 or 5 is more realistic.

Ok, the Big East is next. I'm off to watch my Yankees and Texas try and win the College World Series against LSU. Take care peeps.

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