C-USA Western Division

Well, this division had more offensive firepower than anyone except for the Big 12 South. Rice, Tulsa, Houston and even the lowly SMU Mustangs had a multitude of offensive stars who made every week an adventure. The question is, who will rise to the top this year since the Owls lose Dillard and Clement, Tulsa loses three offensive weapons and Houston has heavy losses on defense. Tulane is another wildcard that just can't seem to escape the basement, despite having good players in recent years. Let's get to the analysis

Houston- The Cougars have all the tools on offense with Case Keenum at QB, who threw for more than 5000 yards and 44 TDs while being productive on the ground as well. With six experienced and talented receivers, including superstars Patrick Edwards and Tyrone Carrier, Keenum's productivity should stay at 4,500-5,000 yards. TB Bryce Beall should also be a star, but he may have to run between the tackles this year since the OL loses both starting tackles. The defense is not as strong because they only return four starters. Despite returning two solid LBs in CJ Cavness and Marcus McGraw the DL will struggle a lot, and in return the secondary may get hit pretty hard. Brandon Brinkley is a very good cover corner, but considering this wasn't the best defense last year, things will go downhill fast. Hopefully for them the Cougars will go 2-2 in non-conference, but road games with Mississippi St. and Oklahoma St. and a home game with Texas Tech could easily produce just one win (against Northwestern St). Houston could get to six or wins if the defense produces even a little bit, but road tilts in conference with UTEP and Tulsa could cause them to fall below the even mark. I'll say six wins, seven max.

Rice- Very few teams in the country were hit harder by the NFL draft and players leaving early than Rice. QB Chase Clement, WR Jarrett Dillard and TE/HB James Casey were outstanding last season and provide huge voids to fill. I know Nick Fanuzzi is the front-runner at QB, being an Alabama transfer and all, but if Rice wants to return to a bowl game, they will go with John Thomas Shepherd. No matter who starts, the person will have some weapons in WR Toren Dixon and Corbin Smiter, with Patrick Randolph an up-and-comer. The RB situation is highly unsettled since CJ Ugokwe decided not to return, but TB Shane Turner with his 4.4 speed could be a nice addition if given the chance. However, I think Turner should alternate carries with the veteran Marcus Knox who has never really gotten a chance to show his potential. The OL will need to gel quickly after losing three starters if the offense is to be productive. The defense was never on track last year, but with nine starters back, including productive DEs Scott Solomon and Cheta Ozougwu, who could have big-time seasons. The LB corps returns intact, but only Terrance Garmon was of note last season, so they will have to step it up this fall for the D to be successful. Despite losing a decent CB, the secondary should do fine thanks to Andrew Sendejo, one of the conference's best free safeties and CB Chris Jammer, who will only get better since he is just a sophomore. A win against Vanderbilt in week 4 will be important to Rice if they either want to get to 2-2, or capture their first win of the season since they start off on the road three times. The conference schedule is manageable with Tulsa and UTEP winnable but tough games at home. However, as much as I want to say they get to .500, 4-5 wins is more realistic.

SMU- There is a lot of confusion over who should start at TB for the Mustangs, but once that is settled, the offense will be spectacular. QB Bo Levi Mitchell is a great young QB who should improve his TD-to-INT ratio with experience. Mitchell should count his lucky stars he has potential All-Americans in Aldrick Robinson and Emmanuel Sanders returning at WR, while Cole Beasley and Terrance Wilkerson should be contributors as well. I think Shawnbrey McNeal should start at RB since he was a former track champ and has good speed, but Chris Butler could easily win the job. I may be wrong in every possible way, but I think the secondary was only as bad as it was because they had to defend the passing attacks of UTEP, Rice, Texas Tech, Tulsa and Houston over the course of the season. With another year playing together, CBs Bryan McCann and Derrius Bell should show significant improvement. The LBs are extremely good and underrated with Youri Yenga and Pete Fleps returning. If Texas A&M transfer Chase Kennemer is a solid LB, then this could be a real strength. While the DL is not a fearsome foursome, the non-conference provides a chance at 3-1 going to Wazzou and facing Navy at home. While a road game at TCU is daunting, never underestimate the upset potential of a rivalry game. I see as many as seven or eight wins if they can win at Washington St. and hold course against Rice and UTEP at home in conference. I'll call for seven on the safe side.

Tulane- If early projections are right and the Green Wave are reportedly moving Joe Kemp to starting QB, then this season could be a disaster. Kevin Moore may have had a horrible TD-to-INT ratio but he needed more time and better weapons to deliver. Having RB Andre Anderson back and healthy could only help matters as he's a 1,500 yard rusher easy, but he will need a backup to emerge since he can't carry the offensive load by himself. Whoever starts at QB may not have any superstars to throw to, but freshman DJ Banks has good speed and a nice vertical and should make waves. Alan Mitchell and Jeremy Williams are also good WRs and TE Cody Banks is a good weapon to have at 6-4 in the redzone (now if he can only produce TDs). The defense will need at least one playmaker to establish himself if Tulane is to finish out of last place in the west. The DL returns three starters but no one has any standout potential or statistics to point to a big 2009 season. The LB corps is depleted, but Travis Burks showed promise last season. FS Corey Sonnier and CB Charles Harris have potential as coverage guys and if they can continue to develop, the secondary may not be so bad. The non-conference schedule produces two sure losses (BYU and LSU), but McNeese St. and at Army are highly-winnable. The conference schedule is brutal as road games with Rice and UCF may be there best bet for wins, but a home game against Marshall is there for the taking too. However, as much as I think this team could improve, they may see 2 wins yet again, 3 at most.

Tulsa- We will know for sure by mid-season if Tulsa's success last year was predicated on the OL dominating almost every opponent, or if the scheme was near perfection. Tulsa only gets 2 O-lineman back, but if QB Jacob Bower is as good as advertised, then the offense will keep on rolling. RB Jamad Williams has breakout potential and with WRs AJ Whitmore and Demaris Johnson also able to produce on the ground, the running game should flourish once more. At WR there is a ton of talent, including Johnson, Whitmore, Trae Johnson and Slick Shelley, who all could improve upon last year's numbers. Charles Clay, at FB, is another threat both running and receiving, so it will be hard to stop this offense. The defense was as good as it had to be last season and should be even better with eight starters returning. In the secondary CBs John Destin and Kenny Sims were outstanding against some great passing offenses while safeties Charles Davis and incumbent starter DeAundre Brown (2 INTs) were very productive. The LBs are among the best in C-USA and once again should do well, especially with all the weapons the rest of the division lest on offense. The D-line produced at times last season, but a better pass rush would help them win the division. The Golden Hurricane may have to hope for a 2-2 non-conference record since they play at Oklahoma and against Boise St. Facing UTEP and Southern Miss on the road in conference could be what costs them the division title as a Nov. 7th date with Houston looms large. I see as many as eight wins, but seven looks to be the right amount.

UTEP- As with many teams in the west, a good running game needs to be established for the Miners to have an explosive offense. Daniel Palmer seems to be the RB of the future, but Vernon Frazier had the best numbers last season while Donald Buckram isn't giving up the starting spot so easily. Assuming one or two good runners can emerge and produce, QB Trevor Vittatoe will have an outstanding season. With outstanding receivers Jeff Moturi and Kris Adams returning and capable backups, the passing game will flourish. Vittatoe should also have good productivity with four starters back on the O-line and QB/WR James Thomas II should be a nice wild-card player who can shake things up at any time. The Miners are just like Tulsa in the fact they have plenty of experience back on the D-line but no real pass rush to speak of. That will have to change immediately. The secondary could be a real strength with Melvin Stephenson, Cornelius Brown and Clarence Ward all good cover corners who can make the big plays at any moment. Hopefully freshman safety DeShawn Grayson can step up and if he does, it will come down to Braxton Amy coming back from injury to make this an outstanding unit. The LBs are inexperienced, but I think can produce if given the chance, especially with Da'Mon Cromartie-Smith as a vocal leader. Losing Jose Martinez will be a big blow at K, but apparently he has a strong leg with a 72 yd FG in the spring according to Phil Steele. The schedule should provide a 2-2 start out of conference, unless the Miners pull an upset against Kansas in El Paso. Beating Houston and Tulsa at home will be crucial to taking the division title, as will a road tilt with SMU, who I consider the biggest dark-horse in the conference. Anyways, I'll call for 8-9 wins, with 10 being an outside shot if everything goes well.

Well, I'll try and get to the MWC tomorrow and maybe even the independents later this evening. Both sets are very intriguing with Navy and Army both running the option now, which should increase wins for the lackluster Cadets. I like the depth of the MWC, even the supposed bottom-feeders. The league was so top-heavy last year with BYU, TCU and Utah that everyone just assumed the rest of the conference wasn't worth anything. However, as you'll see soon, that wasn't the case.