Sunday, June 28, 2009

Top 50 Fantasy RBs

Well, this list will be a lot more difficult to compile than the top QBs for many reasons. For one, good starting QBs will never get benched, no matter how much they struggle unless the coach is fearing for his job. If a RB has 50 yards over 3 games, coaches have no qualms about sitting a supposed "star." Second, very rarely does a QB come out of nowhere to start for a productive team, unless your Kevin McDougal at Notre Dame in 1993, but even he lucked out as super freshman Ron Powlus got injured and didn't play. A fifth or sixth string running back can surprise the coaches and get the call to be great, ala Warrick Dunn for Florida State in that same year, 1993. Third, RBs will often split carries unless they are a Donald Brown at UConn last year, so if there are two good backs, like Jeremiah Johnson and LeGarrette Blount at Oregon, who knows which one will get the bulk of the carries for that week. And lastly, WRs are taking more rushing yards out of the equation thanks to Jim Grobe of Wake Forest and Urban Meyer at Florida who have tinkered with new ways of getting the hands into their speedy wideouts by way of quick hand-offs while the WR goes in motion. Anyways, enough foreplay, let's get to the list.

1. Jahvid Best, Cal- He has a good QB and WRs to keep the pressure off him. He's also a great receiver and the only tests will be USC, who loses a ton of starters, and at Oregon, both early in the season. Tons of speed, a real talent.
2. Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma St.- Georgia may be a tough game, but at least OSU gets them at home. Also, Houston, Rice, Grambling St., Iowa St. and Texas Tech should be big games for him. He also has a great QB, good backup RBs and a star WR to help a loaded offense.
3. Vai Taua, Nevada- Unless former star Luke Lippincott regains his job, Taua and QB Colin Kaepernick will rush for a ton of yards. Missouri and Notre Dame may not be easy tests, but UNLV, Idaho, New Mexico St. and Hawaii should get him plenty of yards.
4. Jonathan Dwyer, GA Tech- He averaged a ton of yards per carry last season and had plenty of long runs. With the flexbone offense he's in, he'll see plenty of opportunities for big gainers again. His division is weak, as is Jacksonville St. and at Mississippi St.
5. Eugene Jarvis, Kent St.- This is a confidence pick more than a can't miss one. With Julius Edelman running all over the place last season, Jarvis lost a ton of yards and TDs. He gets Buffalo, Eastern and Western Michigan and Coastal Carolina, all potential big games. He will also be the feature back for a new QB who won't be allowed to throw too much.
6. Damion Fletcher, Southern Miss- East Carolina and Kansas, possibly Louisville, are the only real tough defenses he should face all season. He also get his entire OL and plenty of weapons to take the pressure off of him. There's also no second RB to threaten his carries.
7. Evan Royster, Penn St.- This may be a risky pick because QB Daryll Clark has no viable WRs to throw to and his numbers can only go down from last year. The non-conference is especially pitiful, however, and Joe Paterno usually sticks to one dominant RB for a whole season.
8. Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon St.- Once again, here's another RB who has no competition for the bulk of the carries on offense and a good QB to share the burden on offense. Portland St., UNLV and Cincinnati should be big games, as is the rest of the Pac-10, an especially weak conference.
9. Darren Evans, VA Tech- Alabama and Nebraska may be tough defensive tests, but generally when a VA Tech offense gets rolling, the TB puts up big numbers. He may not have but 2 explosive games, but he'll get enough carries to be worth a high pick.
10. Bryce Beall, Houston- Despite games with Oklahoma St., Texas Tech and Southern Miss, Beall will have fantastic numbers. He's in possibly the most high-powered offense in the country and his division is very weak. With Keenum throwing all over the place, he'll grind out a lot of extra yards clinching games late.
11. LeGarrette Blount, Oregon- I love this kid; he has tons of home-run potential and was quite underrated last year. With Jeremiah Masoli and Andre Crenshaw potential running threats as well, this offense will be just as explosive. Schedule is kind of rough, but manageable.
12. Harvey Unga, BYU- With plenty of QB Max Hall's receiving threats gone, I think the Cougars will lean on the ground game a lot more at times. He's also a good receiver. Tulane and Utah St. will be big non-conference games and the rest of the MWC is not too rough.
13. Charles Scott, LSU- Despite stiff competition from Keiland Williams and Richard Murphy, Scott is a dynamic back who can carry the rushing load by himself and score tons of TDs near the goalline. Only Alabama and Florida will be the only outstanding defenses he faces.
14. CJ Spiller, Clemson- This ranking is for potential. TCU and South Carolina won't be easy defenses to face, but the rest of the ACC and non-conference is not that hard. Now, he may not have as many receptions being the go-to back and CBS sports doesn't count KR/PRs.
15. Toby Gerhart, Stanford- This player's output will likely depend on who starts at QB and how well they pass downfield and not allow teams to stack the line. San Jose St., Wake Forest and Notre Dame will be tough defenses, but the Pac-10 isn't that challenging.
16. Craig Cooper, Miami (FL)- Cooper will be an outstanding back if he can wrestle the bulk of the carries away from TB Javarris James. An experienced OL also returns to help him out. Be wary of games with South Florida and Oklahoma, while the rest are pretty basic.
17. Noel Devine, West Virginia- Devine is another big-play hitter and assuming new QB Jarrett Brown and slot WR Jock Sanders don't steal a lot of carries, his numbers should improve. He should also get more TDs without Pat White. Some non-conference games will be tricky, same for USF, but the rest of the schedule isn't too daunting.
18. MiQuale Lewis, Ball St.- Without QB Nate Davis, this will be a rough season for Lewis, who has a rough act to follow from '08. He can take the bulk of the carries, but his TD production will almost have to drop. The non-conference schedule is light, however, besides Auburn, so there is potential.
19. Andre Anderson, Tulane- Luckily, this back plays in the weak division of C-USA, while Army and McNeese St. have the potential for huge outputs. The QB position is unsettled, but they have good weapons on the flanks to help out.
20. Cyrus Gray, Texas A&M- With Mike Goodson now gone, Gray will be the feature back and has loads of potential. He's also got good weapons to support him. The non-conference schedule is very easy, but Oklahoma and Texas will be tough games.
21. Derrick Washington, Missouri- Their offense won't be nearly as successful as last year, but he should be the man yet again and have plenty of chances to score TDs, whoever's QBing the team. Bowling Green, Furman and Nevada will be opportunities for huge numbers.
22. Daniel Porter, LA Tech- LSU and Auburn will be rough non-conference opponents, but the WAC is pretty easy, including the toughest opponent, Boise St. at home. I like Porter because LT is run-oriented and he's a great receiver who may not have huge games, but be consistent.
23. Curtis Steele, Memphis-Assuming the Tigers' offense improves, Steele should have similar yardage numbers and more TDs. He also has a great passing game to support him. His three toughest games come in four weeks vs. Southern Miss, East Carolina, and Tennessee.
24. DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma- He, along with Brown, should put up similar numbers to 2008 because QB Sam Bradford loses most of his big-play WRs. Even if they split carries, both backs will shine in blowouts and near the goalline. The schedule is nice and easy as well.
25. Chris Brown, Oklahoma- (SEE DeMarco Murray)
26. James Starks, Buffalo- There's no great QB to take the pressure off, but the WRs should pose enough of a threat to keep defenses honest. He's also a great receiver and used to handling a lot of carries. The non-conference isn't very tough, nor is most of the MAC.
27. Victor Anderson, Louisville- He has some rough games at Utah, home vs. Southern Miss and possibly Kentucky, but the rest isn't too hard. However, he doesn't have a great QB to help out and may have a sophomore slump. With a good OL to help, he should be ok.
28. Roy Helu, Nebraska- Assuming Quentin Castille doesn't take away too many carries, and a QB develops soon, Helu should have a great season. The non-conference is quite easy, aside from VA Tech, and Oklahoma will be a tough defense in-conference.
29. Jaycen Taylor, Purdue- If he can come back from a tough injury, despite losing his QB, Taylor will be bad news for opposing Big 10 defenses. He's got good speed and is a good receiver. He also gets lucky by avoiding Penn St. and only Notre Dame and Oregon are tough non-conference foes.
30. Michael Smith, Arkansas- Troy may be a rough non-conference foe, as will LSU, Florida and Alabama from the SEC, but if Ryan Mallett is the talent at QB people expect him to be, Smith will have lots of running lanes to go through in this explosive offense.
31. Nic Grigsby, Arizona- The non-conference games are a joke and with a ton of great WRs to help out new QB Matt Scott, Grigsby will be explosive. Even if Keola Antolin takes away a few carries, the offense will score enough to make the split-time not matter very much.
32. Jake Sharp, Kansas- Almost all of the skill position players return on offense for the Jayhawks, which means Sharp should have loads of opportunities near the goalline and a lot of help all-around. Southern Miss, Oklahoma and Texas will be brutal, but everything else is easy.
33. Da'Rel Scott, Maryland- This Terps' offense hasn't been that explosive for around a decade or more and this is a risky pick. Assuming Scott gets the same amount of carries as last season, and Devin Meggett doesn't get a larger role, Scott will be good for another 1200 yards and 10-12 TDs. Easy schedule until the end of the season with VA Tech, Florida St. and BC.
34. Reggie Arnold, Arkansas St.- The non-conference will be tough with Nebraska, Iowa and Louisville all coming on the road, but the division is pretty weak aside from usual powehouse Troy. Also, Arnold benefits from outstanding QB Corey Leonard back to threaten opposing defenses and he could see increased receiving numbers.
35. Armando Allen, Notre Dame- VERY risky pick, huge potential, but also huge bust risk in a pass-heavy offense. He might share carries with Robert Hughes also, so he's only considered a good backup fantasy pick, Michigan, USC and BC will be the only challenging defenses.
36. Brandon Minor, Michigan- The Wolverines have to improve offensively in Rich Rodriguez's system and I believe Minor will be a big part of that resurgence. He gets Western and Eastern Michigan along with Delaware St. to help pad the stats.
37. Brandon West, Western Michigan- West will only be a big fantasy pick when Hiller doesn't get the go-ahead to throw 40+ times. He can catch a lot of passes, but didn't always get TD opportunities in the red zone. Michigan and Michigan St. will be tough matchups defensively.
38. DuJuan Harris, Troy- He's a mighty mouse back who plays in the right offense. With a dynamic passing game and an offense that believes in running it 30+ times to establish dominance, he should always have decent numbers. Florida will be tough, but no other team stands out as a total defensive mismatch, even Arkansas.
39. John Clay, Wisconsin-Even with Zach Brown lurking around, he should establish himself as the clear-cut #1 back and in Wisconsin's offense, that means plenty of carries and big numbers. Ohio St. and Michigan will be challenges, but the rest are mediocre defenses.
40. Caleb King, Georgia- Much like at Wisconsin, UGa generally finds a #1 back and gives him the ball a lot (Garrison Hearst, Herschel Walker, Knowshon Moreno). King should be a star and he has a good set of WRs and a strong returning OL to help him. Breaking in a new QB will get him lots of carries. Florida, LSU and South Carolina will be a challenge, along with GA Tech.
41. Josh Adams, Wake Forest- Very risky pick because WF's offense is quite erratic and hasn't established a standout RB for awhile, but he has great potential. Semi-tough ACC division, but Stanford, Elon and Navy will be opportunities for huge numbers.
42. Cam Montgomery, North Texas- Cam was the lone bright spot for NT last season besides do-it-all WR Casey Fitzgerald, and assuming Riley Dodge steps in at QB, he will be relied on to eat clock. He has all-world potential. He will do well in the Sun Belt and should do fine against Ohio or Ball St. and possibly Army too. Minor risk, but huge reward potential.
43. Jeremy Avery, Boise St.- Ian Johnson never separated himself from Avery last year and now all by himself, Avery has 1,500-2,000 yard rushing/receiving combined potential. He plays in a high-powered offense, so he will have a ton of opportunities. Oregon is tough, but everything else is a cakewalk.
44. Darius Marshall, Marshall- Good pick mostly for his consistency and ability to establish himself as the primary ball-carrier. Only if his QB improves will he get more TDs and receptions. VA Tech, WV, Southern Miss and East Carolina will be tough games, but the rest are shaky.
45. Ryan Matthews (or Anthony Harding), Fresno St.-Whoever gets the job will get a lot of yards, but in years past, Fresno has split carries when they have a talented backfield (ala Ron Rivers, Lorenzo Neal and Anthony Daigle in 1991-92). That means the TDs and yards will be split, so whoever wins the job should be just a supporting cast player.
46. Mark Ingram, Alabama- VA Tech and LSU will be difficult games, but the rest are horrific, including North Texas, Florida International and Chattanooga. I think he's ready to be the main man and contribute 1,000 yards and 10 TDs. Lost some good O-lineman, which may hurt.
47. Dan Herron, Ohio St.- Another school where the main RB gets the bulk of the carries and with his hype, big things are expected of Herron this year. He could lose the job to Brandon Saine, but whoever wins the job will lose some TDs to QB Terrelle Pryor near the redzone. USC, Penn St. and Michigan will be tests, but the rest of the schedule, nah.
48. Ben Tate or Mario Fannin, Auburn- Whichever one wins the starting job should be quite productive. I like both of these players, Fannin for his all-around abilities and speed, Tate for his power and durability. LSU, Alabama and WV will provide some resistance on the ground, but the Tigers will get their yards like they do every season, especially against the weaklings.
49. Mikell Simpson, Virginia- Huge sleeper pick. His numbers should definitely be up without Peerman and QB Jameel Sewell being reinstated at QB. I think he's quite versatile and could catch a lot of passes, especially without any proven WRs around. TCU, Southern Miss, BC, and GA Tech will be difficult to get past, but luckily, VA Tech comes after the fantasy season, so that won't hurt you if you draft him.
50. Deonte Jackson, Idaho- The Vandals' offense may be lacking quite a bit, but when you're the only real star or threat, you can have great numbers, which I expect Jackson to have this season. NIU, Washington and Colorado St. aren't the scariest of non-conference defenses and I believe Jackson will get a lot of carries for 1,000 yards easy. The key is getting more TDs.

Honorable Mentions: Darius Willis, Indiana, Stephen Simmons, Northwestern, Cordera Eason, Ole Miss, Bryce Brown, Tennessee, Jewel Hampton, Iowa, Anthony Dixon, Mississippi St., Joseph Turner, TCU, Atiyyah Henderson, San Diego St., Jamad Williams, Tulsa, whoever the FB is at Army, Terrence Blevins, EMU, Frank Goodin, ULM

Enjoy the season, good luck on your picks, unless you're in my league.

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