Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Top 65 Fantasy WRs

College football wide receivers sure have evolved over the years. Some smaller schools back in the day, such as Tulsa and San Diego St., had a much more modern passing game and thus put up huge scoring numbers. While at least half the country went to the Wishbone offense that was developed by Emory Bellard and others, these teams threw the ball all over the place. Quarterbacks such as Mark Herrmann of Purdue, Jim McMahon and Ty Detmer of BYU, Doug Flutie of BC and Alex Van Pelt of Pitt all turned out huge passing yardage numbers thanks to high-octane offenses. However, the greatest of success may have developed in the Southwest, where Andre Ware of Houston put up such spectacular passing numbers of 1989 that he won the Heisman despite not playing once on national TV. Then, the Klingler boys, David and Jimmy, had good numbers at Houston, while SMU revitalized it's program with Mike Romo passing the ball to SB Jason Wolf, who holds the SWC record for receptions with 235. Maybe even more impressive, during Ware's Heisman campaign, his favorite target, Manny Hazard, had 142 receptions in 11 games!! That's almost 13 receptions a game. Anyways, thanks to the run 'n' shoot, which eventually evolved into the modern spread offense and quick passing games employed at Texas Tech, Purdue and Missouri. Even Rice got caught up in the passing frenzy after flexbone head coach Ken Hatfield left the program a few years ago and developed superstar WR Jarrett Dillard. Well, now there are more good WRs than ever, and with Michael Crabtree leaving early for the NFL draft, it's up for grabs as to who is #1. Let's get to the list.

1. Dezmon Briscoe, Kansas- I think this is the safest pick in the WR section, even with competition from teammate Kerry Meier for catches. Todd Reesing will throw plenty of yards and TDs and Briscoe will benefit. The Big 12 North is pretty weak and Duke, Northern Colorado and UTEP won't provide much resistance either.
2. Dez Bryant, Oklahoma St.- Thanks to QB Zac Robinson's preference for finding him all over the field, Bryant will have gigantic numbers. No other WR will take away opportunities. Houston, Rice, Grambling St., Iowa State and Texas Tech should see him soar to big numbers.
3. Mardy Gilyard, Cincinnati- If Marcus Barnett does move primarily to DB, then Gilyard will be the go-to guy. If Barnett stays, then they will form probably the best receiving combo east of Dallas. SE Missouri St., Miami (OH) and Fresno St. make for easy target dates.
4. Aldrick Robinson, SMU- Whether you get Robinson or Sanders, you'll be happy. Bo Levi Mitchell should only improve this season and these two will both benefit. I think only TCU and East Carolina will provide challenges for these two game-breakers. I expect even better numbers from these two and they combined for 126 rec., 2005 yds and 20 TDs last season.
5. Emmanuel Sanders, SMU- See Robinson.
6. Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma- He has an All-American TE challenging him for catches and two dynamic RBs to take away yards, but you know with Bradford's ability he'll get plenty of opportunities for big plays. Texas and Miami (FL) are the only tough defenses on tap.
7. Detron Lewis, Texas Tech- Taylor Potts should do just fine at QB and with Michael Crabtree leaving early, someone has to pick up the slack and he'll be the man. Good combination of possession receiver and deep threat. OU and Texas are the only scares defensively in 2009.
8. DeAndre Brown, Southern Miss- Assuming he returns with no ill effects from that horrific injury in the bowl game, he is the premier deep threat in the country. Also, he has size to score in the red zone. Maybe Kansas, Louisville and East Carolina will challenge him, but not a whole lot.
9. Tyrone Carrier, Houston- He's small, but he can do it all. Patrick Edwards and LJ Castille might take away some yards, but when your QB throws for 4,500-5,000 yards, who cares, you'll still get yours. No real tough defenses on the schedule besides Southern Miss.
10. Ryan Wolfe, UNLV- This would be a risky pick if it weren't for the fact that the Rebels have no running game and QB Omar Clayton loves to look for Wolfe on every play. Utah and TCU might be tough opposition, but the Utes lose a lot of talent, so he could put up big numbers.
11. Golden Tate, Notre Dame- Coach Charlie Weis loves to throw the ball and should really unleash QB Jimmy Clausen, which means who knows how many yards Tate and counterpart Michael Floyd could put up. Michigan, USC and BC will be rough, but he should still contribute.
12. Greg Salas, Hawaii- Well, the Warriors haven't gone far away from the offense June Jones installed when he was coach. The passing game may not be as prolific, but with a starting QB finally settled upon, Salas should do well. Boise St. is the only good defense on the schedule.
13. Antonio Brown, Central Michigan- I think QB Dan LeFevour will be healthier in this his senior season, so that can only mean good things for Brown. Even with Bryan Anderson around, he'll produce big-time. Only Michigan St. and BC will be a major challenge.
14. Jordan Shipley, Texas- I think with Quan Cosby gone, Shipley will be even more of a factor in the red zone and all over the field. QB Colt McCoy may not do as well as he did in 2008, but Shipley will be great as always. Only Oklahoma is a proven factor defensively.
15. Naaman Roosevelt, Buffalo- There's no proven QB to get him the ball, but with only Pittsburgh and Temple being even average defensively, Roosevelt should get 1,000 yards easily. Hopefully for fantasy owners he will come close to the 1,400 yards and 13 TDs of '08.
16. Kris Adams, UTEP- This player is high because of all the TDs he caught last season and with no great RB around, QB Trevor Vittatoe may have to throw even more this season. Even if Jeff Moturi is on the other side, he will be quite productive. Only Kansas and Texas stands in the way of a great season statistically.
17. Jacory Stone, Eastern Michigan-
18. Kerry Meier, Kansas-For some reason, the Eagles just don't throw the ball that much. On the other hand, why would they with Stone at WR and Andy Schmitt under center? Michigan seems to be the only top-notch defense he faces, however, EMU has lots of road games, so beware.
19. Eric Decker, Minnesota- Decker does have to face Penn St. and Ohio St. on the road, but every other team is quite vulnerable. Adam Weber is a stud at QB and newcomer Hayo Carpenter should take the pressure off of Decker, who has already had a nice career.
20. Edward Britton, Texas Tech-Counterpart Tramain Swindall could fit in this spot just as easily, but Britton has more experience. It's important to note that even the 2nd best WR on Texas Tech will produce more than 90% of other team's #1 WR.
21. Cortez Gent, Florida Atlantic- Rusty Smith will get him the ball early and often and without much of a running game, 1,000 yards is a given. Jason Harmon is back at TE, so that will help too. Nebraska and South Carolina will be tough to start with, but then things get much easier.
22. Juan Nunez, Western Michigan- With Jamarko Simmons and others gone, Nunez should be the man and develop a quick relationship with QB Tim Hiller. If the running game continues to be effective, he'll put up big numbers. Only Michigan and Michigan St. will pose a threat.
23. Marcus Anderson, New Mexico St.- The Aggies will need to have a new QB develop quickly if Anderson is to fulfill his All-American potential. No other receivers pose a threat to take away receptions and the only good defense he will face is Boise St.
24. Carlos Singleton, Memphis- With Arkelon Hall back at QB and no standout WR to challenge him, Singleton should be a dangerous weapon, especially in the red zone. I predict a fantastic season despite Tennessee, Southern Miss and East Carolina on the schedule.
25. Toren Dixon (or Corbin Smiter), Rice- There are two good WRs left at this program, but without an accurate QB, their numbers could suffer a lot. However, with the way the offense is programmed, they should produce near 1,000 yards. The two challenges will be when they face Vanderbilt and East Carolina, two strong defenses.
26. James Rodgers, Oregon St.- Not only could he catch a ton of passes, but he will get good yardage on flanker sweeps. He's a dangerous weapon with a good supporting cast and with only USC on the schedule, he will be even more productive this season.
27. Jacoby Ford, Clemson- The Tigers should have a competent enough QB to get Ford the ball and he should produce plenty of yards and TDs. With James Davis gone, he will get more touches. With BC, TCU, Florida St. and GA Tech around the schedule won't be easy, but it's not too bad.
28. Damaris Johnson, Tulsa- Jacob Bower will fit nicely at QB, and with this dynamic offense, Johnson will get his yardage no matter what. Playing at Oklahoma and Southern Miss will be tough road tests, and home dates with Boise St. and East Carolina aren't particularly easy either.
29. Terrell Turner, Arizona-This is a risky pick only if Matt Scott doesn't develop as an accurate passer. Even with two good RBs, another good WR and Rob Gronkowski at TE, Turner will put up good numbers. Only Iowa and USC will be particularly strong opposition.
30. Brandon Banks, Kansas St.- Only road dates with Oklahoma and UCLA should derail him from having a great season. Breaking in a new QB won't help him much either, but he should have a season, especially with Deon Murphy gone.
31. Kendall Wright, Baylor- If Griffin keeps progressing as a smart and accurate QB, then Wright should improve in every area; receptions, yards and TDs. Texas and OU will be tough, as will Wake Forest, but the Demon Deacons do lose Alphonso Smith, so they may not be as challenging.
32. Jeff Moturi, UTEP- With Trevor Vittatoe being an outstanding QB, there's room for both Adams and Moturi in this draft. Moturi still had plenty of TDs last season and his yardage should be better with more experience playing in the system.
33. TY Hilton, Florida International- It will be nearly impossible for Hilton to match last year's yards per catch average, but he will be a star yet again. His value is hurt because CBS sports doesn't count KR/PR. Going to Alabama and Florida won't help his stats, but he'll do fine.
34. Tim Brown, Rutgers- The new QB won't be half as good as Mike Teel, but with the two other standout WRs gone, Brown will be who the new QB leans on most of the season, which could mean big things. USF, WV and Maryland will be minor competition.
35. Mike Williams, Syracuse- If the Orange are smart enough to keep Cameron Dantley at QB, then Williams should have a tremendous season. They have a pretty easy schedule, aside from a trip to Penn St. and home dates with USF and West Virginia early in the season.
36. Jerrel Jernigan, Troy- Jernigan would have had even better stats last season if he didn't get injured. Levi Brown will help him put up great numbers and with Florida being the only tough defense he faces, who knows how great he will be.
37. Deryn Bowser, Akron- I think Jacquemain is an underrated QB and he's good because he has Bowser and Andre Jones, two WRs who overachieve immensely. Only the opener at Penn St, will cause him to have an off day. Northern Illinois may also be a tricky one on the road.
38. Austin Pettis, Boise St.- Pettis will thrive as Kellen Moore's only returning WR with any experience. The only thing that could derail a superb season is if Moore has a sophomore slump. Oregon will be a challenge, but Boise gets them at home so, he should be free and clear for '09.
39. Michael Floyd, Notre Dame- As I said with Golden Tate, Clausen could get the go-ahead to throw even more this season, which means their stats will go up if they play up to potential.
40. Jeremy Williams, Tulane- If Joe Kemp starts as Phil Steele predicts, then Bob Toledo, generally regarded as a smart coach, needs to be fired. Kevin Moore is far better and could help Williams put up good stats. Consecutive road trips to Southern Miss and LSU will halt his productivity, but otherwise, he'll do bad things to opposing defenses.
41. Patrick Edwards, Houston- If he hadn't suffered a horrible leg injury last season, he would have surpassed 1,000 yards easily and should so this season. Keenum is a fantastic QB and will do enough to keep him and Carrier happy.
42. Rashaun Greer, Colorado St.- This is tricky because Greer had a lot of yards last season, but counterpart Dion Morton had all the TDs (10 to 3). This is a tricky pick since the Rams will have a new QB, but thankfully the MWC won't be as good as 2008. However, TCU will be a challenge.
43. Damian Williams, USC- I don't know who will be the Trojans new QB, but in their productive, pro-style offense, Williams should get good yardage and probably 10+ TDs. A road trip to Ohio St. will be interesting, but the rest isn't so bad, including Notre Dame and UCLA.
44. Brandon LaFell, LSU- Jordan Jefferson will only improve as a QB with more reps and LaFell should have another great season, much like he did last year with no real competent QB to get him the ball. Alabama and Florida will be stern tests, but he will do well against everyone else.
45. Keith Smith, Purdue- He could be a steal if you get him this late in the draft. That is, provided new QB Joey Elliott steps up and has decent numbers. Almost everyone else who contributed in '08 is gone, so look for a huge jump. Ohio St. will not be easy at home and neither will be road games at Oregon or Michigan.
46. Jimmy Young, TCU- Andy Dalton is another underrated, but highly productive QB and he's only as good as he is because Young is a stud at WR. Going to UVa and Clemson might hurt his numbers, but dates with New Mexico, Texas St. and SMU will more than make up for it.
47. Arrelious Benn, Illinois- Only if he gets more TDs will Benn be a good draft pick. He may get plenty of yards, but again, CBS doesn't count KR/PRs, so that hurts him. Home games with Penn St. and Michigan will not help his cause, nor will a road date with Ohio St. on Sep. 26.
48. Shay Hodge, Ole Miss- This is a good pick because what he lacked in overall yards last season he made up for with 8 TDs. Those numbers should improve with Jevan Snead becoming a star at QB. Alabama, Vandy and LSU will be minor roadblocks to a terrific season.
49. Andrew Brewer (or Jeremy Ebert), Northwestern- Brewer has the size and speed to be the star of this receiving corps and Mike Kafka won't disappoint as the new QB. The Wildcats don't have to play Michigan or Ohio St., so that is quite beneficial for fantasy owners.
50. Owen Spencer, N.C. State- With Wake Forest, Florida St., BC and VA Tech all on the road, this may be a dangerous pick. Still, I think Russell Wilson continue to mature as a QB, which means Spencer's numbers could skyrocket. Wilson did spread the ball around a lot last season, but he will learn to use his go-to guy more often.
51. Ronald Johnson, USC- With Patrick Turner gone, that means more room for Mitch Mustain or Aaron Corp, whoever starts at QB, to spread the ball around to both him and Williams.
52. Dexter McCluster, Ole Miss- As long as Houston Nutt continues to employ the "Wild Rebel" formation, McCluster should go well over a 1,000 yards rushing/receiving combined again in 2009. Semi-tough schedule, but the high-powered offense will make up for it.
53. Chris McGaha, Arizona St.- The Sun Devils were awful offensively last season and if a QB doesn't develop quickly, things could be just as bad in '09. He has potential, but who knows if it will be able to shine through. Weak schedule, aside from USC and a road trip to Georgia.
54. Jock Sanders, West Virginia- If he's eligible. He should have good receiving numbers, especially in terms of TDs, and his running numbers are surprisingly good. East Carolina may be a tough trip, as will road dates with USF and Auburn. However, it's not too daunting a task.
55. Jessie Hester, USF- QB Matt Grothe should again put up good numbers, especially with three easy non-conference games to start the year. Florida St., Miami (FL) and WV could be tough, but with his experience, he'll find a way to be productive.
56. Doug Beaumont, Louisville- The new QB will have to develop quickly if Beaumont is going to top 750 yards again, especially with a deep and talented receiving corps behind him. The numerous road games may hurt the new QB, but it will be interesting to monitor all season.
57. Nyan Boateng, Cal- Kevin Riley will finally be the man at QB, which could be promising for Boateng, a speedster with decent size. Maryland will be challenging, but it's the opener so that's not as bad. The Pac-10 is so weak I see no real opposition aside from USC, who was decimated on defense by the draft.
58. Vincent Brown, San Diego St.- Ryan Lindley should only get better as a sophomore, which I think means Brown will approach 1,000 yards. If his TD total improves too, he could be a steal. UCLA is a tough non-conference game, as is TCU in conference, but the rest is pretty easy.
59. Slick Shelley, Tulsa- He had a lot of promise at Tennessee and is fulfilling that potential at Tulsa, even with a ton of other talented players around him to whom he has to share the ball.
60. Chris Wellington, Nevada- It may surprise some people that the Wolf Pack had a 1,000 yard receiver last season, especially when you consider how great their running game was. I think Wellington slides into that star receiver spot and has a great season. He will get his every week.
61. Seyi Ajirotutu, Fresno St.- Provided the stable of RBs don't get all the TDs, this man will be a threat from all over the field; he has enough speed to burn people deep and the size near the goalline to make big plays. I see him having trouble with Wisconsin and Boise St., but other than those two, and despite having a new QB, he should come close to a 1,000 yards, if not surpass it.
62. Malcolm Lane, Hawaii- This position could go to Lane or Daniel Lofton, but whoever the #2 WR is on the big island, he will have a lot of yards and TDs. This pick may hinge on how successful Greg Alexander is as the full-time QB. Only Boise St. poses a threat on the schedule.
63. Stephen Williams, Toledo- Even with two good RBs chewing up yards, QB Aaron Opelt will find Williams a lot this season. Beware because his numbers dropped last season compared to '07. Playing Ohio St. and Purdue won't help his cause much either.
64. Darrell McNeal, Louisiana-Monroe- He does lose a very accurate QB in Kinsmon Lancaster, but he also has been the man at WR for two seasons now, putting up impressive stats for a balanced offense. He plays at Texas and at Kentucky, which will be tough for a new QB, but the rest is slim pickens, enough with plenty of road games.
65. Phillip Livas, Louisiana Tech- Here's another player who won't wow you with receiving numbers right away, but his rushing/receiving potential maThey play at LSU and Auburn, and of course home to Boise St., but that won't be as overmatched as one might think.

Honorable mention: Riley Cooper, Florida, Montez Billings, Auburn, Jarred Fayson, Illinois, Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Iowa, Mark Dell, Michigan St., David Gilreath, Wisconsin, Jeff Fuller, Texas A&M, Aldarius Johnson, Miami (FL), Greg Little, UNC, David Reed, Utah, Greg Bolling, Wyoming, Frantrell Forrest, UAB, Taylor Price, Ohio, Briggs Orsbon, Ball St.

A quick note; I didn't put a Missouri or BYU receiver on this list because I don't know who will be the stars yet. Danario Alexander has potential at Mizzou, while BYU has plenty of options. Keep an eye on these teams, I'm sure someone will develop eventually.

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