Tuesday, June 16, 2009

MAC (Western Division)

Ok, so we're back for the second half of the MAC preview. This is where the teams with the most potential reside, but it remains to be seen if the big boys can put the talent together and make a run at the top 25. I don't think any team in the entire conference should be really dominant and there will be more parody and uncertainty than this conference has seen in a long time. Let's start with last year's darlings...

Ball St.- The Cardinals have the misfortune of losing Nate Davis at QB, but they may be the luckiest team in America because they have 3 non-conference games that are very winnable. North Texas, New Hampshire and at Army isn't exactly a litmus test for determining if a team is great, but we will see how well they fare without Davis at least. The good news is whoever starts will have fabulous TB MiQuale Lewis back to run all over the place and take up most of the workload on offense. The bad news is the OL is very inexperienced, so Lewis could have a major drop in production. Briggs Orsbon and Daniel Ifft may be outstanding receivers, but if the QB doesn't have time to throw or Lewis is ineffective, the offense could go downhill fast. On defense, the Cardinals get a ton of experience back at the DL and some quality LBs (despite losing 2 starters), but have no CBs returning. That is bad news for a division with three outstanding passers. I see only three truly winnable conference games and a tricky non-conference schedule with two unknowns in Army and North Texas. I'll call for 4-5 wins, 6 if they get lucky.

Central Michigan- The Chippewas could be the one team in the MAC that catches all the breaks scheduling-wise. Road games at Arizona, Michigan St. and BC may not be the easiest schedule, but they all lose starting QBs and have upset potential when CMU comes calling. QB Dan LeFevour is a do-it-all QB who can win a lot of games on his own, but hasn't come through in the big games as of late. His only big win recently was at Indiana, but that's because the Hoosiers had fallen apart completely. With no experienced RB, CMU could suffer, but receivers Bryan Anderson and Antonio Brown could top 1,000 yards each this season. CMU is strong defensively with 10 returning starters, but the secondary was not very impressive last season. DEs Frank Zombo and Sam Williams are great at rushing the passer and could cause havoc against the good QBs in the MAC, but that remains to be seen if it will enough. Assuming the defense comes together and the offense stays on course, CMU should get 7 wins easily, but the upside is 9 or 10 with a non-conference upset or two.

Eastern Michigan- Much like North Texas in the Sun Belt, EMU is the great unknown in the MAC because they are a bad team that could rise up and have a surprising season. QB Andy Schmitt improves every season, and with a 63% completion rate, 2-1 TD-to-INT ratio and outstanding receivers in Jacory Stone, Marvin Sanders, Dontayo Gage and DeAnthony White, this offensive could be explosive. Even the TE, Josh LeDuc is a dangerous target. If all that wasn't enough, they get 4 OL back and two solid RBs in Terrence Blevins and Dwayne Priest. I feel Blevins could be a 1,000 yard rusher if he got enough carries, but the offense is much more balanced and that probably won't happen. The defense has a good pass rusher in DE Brad Ohrman, but with 8 returning starters the defense will be more of a team effort than individual stars. CB Arrington Hicks could grow into a good cover corner, but with all the explosive receivers in the MAC West, the secondary will need to step up if they have any chance at finishing .500. Luckily for EMU, road games at Northern Illinois and Toledo are winnable, and so is Ball St. at home, but they need to win 2-of-3 against Kent St., Temple and Western Michigan to finish 7-5, which is their max potential. Army and Northwestern are also winnable non-conference games, but it remains to be seen if this team can get out of their losing tradition. I'll say 4 or 5 wins, but I'm rooting for a .500 season in Schmitt's final season.

Northern Illinois- The Huskies are a confusing team because they have two talented RBs in Me'co Brown and Justin Anderson, but never turned either loose to be a dominate runner. Instead, Chandler Harnish I feel hurt the team more than helped it last year by often times keeping the ball and running it himself. Nathan Palmer is a good returning receiver, but I have little faith in this offense because they were too conservative. The excuse could be that Chandler was just a freshman last year, but really, when I saw him play, he looked only good enough to be obviously weaker foes and got overwhelmed by truly good teams. The good news is they get DE Brandon Bice back to rush the passer, but the bad news is far worse; they lose both CBs and only have 4 starters back overall. Therefore, the defense which helped them get to a bowl game will not be nearly as strong. I just don't like NI's chances against a MAC conference that has plenty of high-powered offenses. Unless NIU can run the ball and limit posessions, it will be a long season. Only Western Illinois and Idaho seem to be gimmes, but Eastern Michigan and at Miami (OH) are winnable, but beyond that, it all depends on how the defense comes together. I'll call for 4 wins because they are usually well-coached and a .500 record would be a huge success.

Toledo- The Rockets have so many returning starters that it seems inevitable that they will top last year's 3 win total, which they will, but the early season could be rough. Purdue is winnable on the road, but not a gimme by any stretch and home against Colorado could also be a close game, but Ohio State is a definite loss. Therefore, if the Rockets start 0-3, things could collapse on their first-year coach Tim Beckman. Anyways, QB Aaron Opelt has superstar receiver Stephen Williams back, and if they can find another weapon or two on the flanks, the offense will be quite dangerous. RBs Morgan Williams and DaJuane Collins may provide the best 1-2 punch of any backfield in the MAC and with the entire OL returning, Toledo will outscore a few teams when they have to. The Rockets have a lot of returning starters on defense, especially at LB and will need a lot of leadership from Archie Donald, Daris Quinn and Barry Church. The secondary may end up ok, but the pass rush will need to produce more than 2 sacks for their individual leader. If the defense can't get to all the talented QBs, I see a 5-7 record. Temple, Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan are not easy games by any stretch so any loss of confidence will hurt.

Western Michigan- It will be a heavy task for Tim Hiller to replicate his 3700 yards and 36 TDs from last year without three of his favorite receivers returning. However, he does have outstanding TB Brandon West returning, along with his capable backup Aaron Winchester, and the reliable Juan Nunez at WR. However, even with all the losses at wideout, they do have a strong OL returning. But, the main problems will be on defense. First, the positives are they get DE Justin Braska who will disrupt any good offense with his speed and agility while LB Austin Pritchard should be an easy All-MAC selection. The problems will be in the secondary where only FS Mario Armstrong has any real experience. The good news with the scheduling is they could cruise to 4-1 or even 5-0 at home, but the road is killer going to Eastern Michigan, NIU and Toledo. All three games could end up in losses, even though WM is probably better than all of them. I have no reason to say with any conviction they will win more than 7 games. It could be a bad season for a program that has been very consistent the last 4 years. And by bad I mean 5 wins, which is not too tragic.

Ok, tune in tomorrow where hopefully I will get through the entire WAC conference, which has two real contenders and a bunch of other squads just praying to achieve bowl eligibility.

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