Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Week 2 Preview

There are 5 things you need to watch out for and be aware of this weekend in college football. So, let's break them down scientifically and then predict the 3 big games for the weekend.

1. Bounce back games: 5 programs who will have it very rough this weekend. Eastern Illinois for starters, who has to travel to Champaign and get whooped by an Illinois squad who will be sure to focus on their spread offense passing game and get Dufrene and Ford plenty of reps on the ground. Texas State, who has to play at SMU and June Jones' offense will be fine tuned and ready to roll with their true freshman QB. The Citadel, who pulled off a great effort on the road in Madison last year against a highly-ranked Wisconsin squad. Can they do that again against Clemson, probably not. Cullen Harper, Aaron Kelly and the dynamic duo of Davis and Spiller who should put up 60 points or more. Tennessee Tech has to play at Louisville, and after the Cardinals got embarrassed on national TV against an arch-rival, they should fire the ball all over the field and scoring at will. Lastly, SE Louisiana, who could stay competitive at Mississippi State if the rains come pouring down like the weatherman predicts. However, even though Sylvester Croom's offense isn't designed for 50+ points a game, this should still be a blowout.

2. Revenge Games Georgia Tech vs. BC The Yellow Jackets were off to a hot start last year but ran into the unlikely ACC buzzsaw known as Matt Ryan and the BC Eagles who destroyed them, 24-10 (much worse than the score indicates). Now, with the new triple-option offense, I think Dwyer and the Ramblin' Wreck could get it done, but we shall see.
Northwestern vs. Duke The Blue Devils snapped a 22-game skid last year in Evanston against the Wildcats and you know superstar TB Tyrell Sutton of NU didn't take that very well, not with his seat on the bench thanks to an injury. Duke is looking to rebuild in a horrible ACC while Northwestern has a soft early schedule and a chance to sneak in the backdoor. I take the Wildcats for the win, although it will be close.
Connecticut at Temple This is the one game last year that proved 100% that replay doesn't always work. Bruce Francis easily had a TD catch in the end zone overruled and it would've capped a colossal upset over the eventual Big East co-champions. The stats were dead even last year, so let's not just assume UConn will rule. I think this game would be huge for a Temple program that is on the rise in the MAC under Al Golden.

3. If You're So Good, Prove It BYU can take a major step forward by crushing Tyrone Willingham and his Washington Huskies in Seattle. The weather will be gorgeous and the Cougars have a dynamic offense which they can put on display against a respectable BCS team (hey, it's not like UW is Syracuse). Both Ole Miss and Wake Forest have something to prove this weekend playing against each other. The Demon Deacons may be the class of the ACC, which isn't saying much, and Texas transfer Jevan Snead wants to prove he belongs with Tebow and Stafford among the best QBs in the SEC. Penn State needs to prove themselves against a top-flight foe, and they have just the opponent in Oregon State this weekend, who is getting overlooked because of a bad loss to a hard-to-predict Stanford squad. The Beavers will be just fine in the long run with all those weapons on offense and now the Nittany Lions can showcase that highly-touted defense on national TV (ABC 3:30 ET). Do I get paid for that plug? Anyways, onto Texas Tech at Nevada, which should be a feeeee-nomenal game. Colin Kaepernick, Luke Lippincott, Marko Mitchell, Graham Harrell, Crabtree, Lewis and Morris at WR for TT!!! Do you know how many teams had double-digit INTs from their defense last year? How about 100. And out of those 100, Nevada wasn't one of them, Phil Steele had their pass defense ranked #79 thanks to his complicated formula which factors in yards per play, TD passes, INTs, and how many yards per game the opposing offense averaged all season. I set the over/under at 84, and trust me, take the over.

4. Underrated Games you should be paying attention to: San Jose St. at Nebraska Don't blame Cal transfer Kyle Reed for his genius head coach Dick Tomey not inserting his best QB into the game until the 2nd half. Also, Reed had no running game to help him, he was the leading rusher. The Spartans have a ton of good WRs and Nebraska can fling it all over the field, should be high-scoring and entertaining.
Rice at Memphis You should watch any game where Jarrett Dillard is playing and his #1 QB, Chase Clement is healthy because they will move the ball downfield and scare the hell out of opposing defenses. It's on CSTV, and Dillard is the most underrated player in all of college football. Just watch, trust me.
Eastern Michigan at Michigan State Since the Big Ten Network needs to show about 5 games from noon (ET) to 3:30, there is always bound to be one game where the severely overmatched MAC, or lower-conference team keeps the game close, and this is it. Andy Schmitt is an underrated QB (14-to-6 TD to INT ratio last year) and has good weapons at WR, with all 4 returning starters in the secondary. I'm not saying the Eagles will win, they will just keep it close for awhile.
San Diego State at Notre Dame Just so you can see how bad these two offenses really are and laugh maniacally at all the money NBC has wasted on its TV contract with the Golden Domers. That's what the Irish get for being racist (see current UW head coach).
Navy at Ball State If this lives up to the hype, both defenses won't show up and Nate Davis will go insane. Also, Shun White had a great game against Towson (the overlooked performance of the week) and the contrast in offenses will be interesting.

5. Upsets Sure to go Wrong: I'm picking these games more because I'd like to see the upset happen, and all of these teams do have a chance.
South Carolina at Vanderbilt The Commodores aren't as bad as everyone thinks, and the Gamecocks only have a good WR (McKinley) and a workhorse, but not great RB, Mike Davis. Vandy meanwhile needs to run more of an Illinois type spread offense, especially with Jeff Jennings at TB and Chris Nickson a versatile weapon at QB when he's on. If DJ Moore can lock up on McKinley and contain him, the 'Dores have an upset in their midst.
New Hampshire at Army I don't need to know much more than what I saw against Temple last week. The Cadets are that bad, and last year's game against Rhode Island is proof of their offensive ineptitude. By changing to a more run-based, option offense, Army didn't do their offenses any favor.
Buffalo at Pittsburgh Naaman Roosevelt is a very good WR who torched UTEP last year and James Starks is one of those, gets a lot of press from the experts, but is still "underrated" to the masses. Also, Drew Willy's maturation has come along quite nicely, so the Bulls could easily take this game, even though it's at Pitt and they will be on alert after losing to Bowling Green last week.
Arkansas at Louisiana-Monroe The Warhawks had only one really bad offensive game last year and that was against Tulsa, but even then RB Calvin Dawson had 150 yards. Dawson is a good dual-purpose tailback and Kinsmon Lancaster has plenty of weapons to throw to, so the Razorbacks should be on their best behavior, especially after the near loss to Western Illinois last week, so much like Pitt they will be aware of a potential upset.

Now it's time for our four major matchups and how each game should play out.
West Virginia vs. East Carolina The marquee game, which ESPN should be thankful for, considering ECU's win over Virginia Tech garnered a lot more press than it deserved. I mean, let's be honest, Glennon isn't really a great QB, he had no weapons, and the defense had what, 4 returning starters? If it wasn't for good coaching by Beamer, the Hokies would have gotten demolished. Noel Devine, Pat White and Jock Sanders will run wild on the Pirates. Sure, ECU will get some points themselves, but after a close-fought first half, WV will roll. West Virginia 37 East Carolina 28
Central Michigan at Georgia Stafford, Moreno and Mohamed Massaquoi will be clicking on offense all year for the Bulldogs, and that's just the start of their offensive firepower. The defense is a little overrated and won't hold up all year, not under their schedule at least. The main point here is, do the Bulldogs step on the gas and make a statement for being dropped from #1 in the polls and roll over the Chippewas, or can Dan LeFevour (the MAC's version of Tim Tebow) keep his team competitive? I think CMU is in the ECU role here, they keep it close, but lose out in the end thanks to superior talent on the opposite side of the field. Georgia 48 CMU 30
Miami (FL) vs. Florida Good returning players on defense, great depth at RB, a stud WR in Sam Shields, but no proven QB. What does this all add up to for the Hurricanes? How about a massive butt-kicking in the Swamp. I wish I could give the 'Canes more credit, seeing as how I hate Florida, but Harvin or not, FL is still way too talented. This is easy. Florida 40 Miami (FL) 13

Ok wow, I'm tapped out, that was long. I guess I will see you all next week for the helmet stickers and game balls for outstanding performances, not to mention kick myself for a few horrible picks. Enjoy the games everybody.

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