Week 4 Preview

At first glance I thought this weekend might be horrible. No Illinois, no Duke (Cinderella?), Oklahoma, USC. So many good teams are off I initially thought there wouldn't be enough high-profile matchups. However, how wrong I was. As usual, a few ramblings and observations before the weekend.

Louisville vs. Kansas State should be extremely high scoring at first glance, but who knows. The Cardinals were dreadful against Kentucky and I still don't trust their offense. Who the heck can predict this game? K-State loves to start strong and then be a letdown, so we'll continue monitoring them.

Northwestern RB Tyrell Sutton's stock should have never dropped after an ok season last year. This is one of the best dual-purpose backs in the country. He may only be 5'9 but he's on his way to easily surpass 4,000 yards rushing for his career. With decent WRs and a QB in Bacher who can limit mistakes when he's focused, Northwestern is a dark horse in the Big 10. They could finish in the top half easily.

Who hooked Chris Nickson of Vandy up to the "juvenation machine?" His career has been reborn after fighting with Mackenzi Adams and Richard Kovalcheck the last few years for the starting QB role. Is he throwing for big yards? No, but he's limiting his mistakes and has no INTs so far, just what his team needs if they are to survive a brutal SEC schedule.

Find your favorite friend, or someone you barely know, doesn't matter, and make sure they have the Big 10 Network because you won't want to miss Indiana vs. Ball State at 6:00 PM (CST). These two QBs, Kellen Lewis of IU, and Nate Davis of Ball State, should put up huge numbers and it could be a very close game until the end. One, Lewis loves to run and throw, while Davis just needs to fine tune his delivery and he could be a very high draft pick. And they're both juniors, so we should get to enjoy them for one more season after this.

The battle for #8- Idaho at Utah State. This won't be a great game, but luckily, whoever wins could be the team that escapes the cellar in the WAC (and finishes 8th). I expect the Vandals to pull off the road win thanks to Deonte' Jackson, their highly-talented TB, but really, this is a crapshoot. Is there anything harder to do than pick between bad teams who's going to win? I'd argue that takes more luck than skill.

Cupcake Central- I know this isn't an unreasonably high number, but 11 Div I-AA schools are traveling to face the big boys. Watch out Syracuse, who hosts Northeastern, and Washington State, who plays Portland State, this may be your only chance to win a game all season, so make the most of it. Watch out for Wofford against South Carolina, will be interesting to see how that Wishbone offense of the Terriers does against Spurrier's boys. The Terriers actually beat 3-time National Champ Appalachian State last year, and gave the Gamecocks a run for their money in 2006.

The game I can't pick due to a conflict of interest, Florida at Tennessee. If I pick Florida, I know I'll be right, but I don't want to get credit for picking against my Vols, and picking UT would hurt my W-L pick 'em record. Let me go on record however by saying right now that the Jonathan Crompton era will not work. He was horrible against UCLA. It's time to give Nick Stephens the reigns and let him learn on the job, or hand over the keys to true freshman, and VHT Casey Kelly. Its better to groom along a QB who could be great and take your lumps for one season and reap the awards in the future. Case in points; Nebraska did this with Tommie Frazier in 1992 when they realized Mike Grant wouldn't work and eventually played in 3 national championship bowl games at QB. I believe Frazier is the only player ever to do that, but someone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. Same scenario with Chris Leak and Florida in 2003, and they won a national title. Oklahoma did it with Jamelle Holieway in 1985 when it was obvious Troy Aikman wasn't a Wishbone QB (and they went 33-3 over 3 years with Holieway and a national championship). Houston turned around their entire program in 2003 thanks to Kevin Kolb, so did Illinois with Juice Williams in 2006. Missouri even did it with Corby Jones in 1995 and had back-to-back winning seasons in '97 and '98, the first time since '82-83. Which brings me to my next point...

Schools that should abandon ship and hand the keys to young QBs or freshman for the good of the program; Texas A&M, it's time for the Jerrod Johnson era. Arkansas better do this with Ryan Mallett next year when he's eligible because they have no other options. Virginia Tech and Tyrod Taylor because the only way he'll learn to be a better passer is through experience. Ohio State and Terrelle Pryor for reasons obvious to anyone who saw the game at USC last week. Rutgers and DC Jefferson because Mike Teel is absolutely horrific. What is this, the Mike McMahon era all over again? Seriously, is McMahon the worst 4-year starter in NCAA history? I'm including all divisions here. He didn't complete 50% of his passes for his career, could barely beat Richmond and Villanova, and was 1-3 against Temple (f'ing Temple!!!). You know, Temple, the school that was so bad they got kicked out of the Big East, not good times.

Ok, so we're almost done, now let's get onto the picks for all the major games this week. Since the "Schwam" can do it on ESPN during his two-minute drill predictions, so can I. The tally so far, 6-1. We're not picking against the spread here people, just out and out winners.
Boise St. at #17 Oregon- There isn't a big game to be had until mid-afternoon when the Broncos travel to the ever-dangerous Autzen Field. I originally thought this game was in Boise, which had me convinced they would win. Now that I realize its in Eugene, go Ducks! How could I not support LeGarrette Blount and Jeremiah Johnson at TB for Oregon? Johnson has quickness and some power, while Blount is a burner who can decimate any defense. Sure, OU has no QB, but that won't stop this team because well, the Broncos don't have a decent QB either. Oregon 30 Boise St. 21

Notre Dame at Michigan St.- Since I downright refuse to pick Tennessee-Florida, I'll give you this game as an added bonus. The Irish are coming off two not-so-impressive wins, while the Spartans are just about ready for their mid-season downfall. The Spartans the last 3 years; 2005, start 4-0, end up 5-6, 2006, start 3-0, end up 4-8, last year, start 4-0, end up 7-6. Who do they think they are, Virginia in the early 90s? Anyways, Javon Ringer may just be a ringer, are we sure he's eligible at the college level because this guy has been blowing up opposing defenses. Couple that with WR Mark Dell and you have one of the nation's best combos. I am not impressed with Notre Dame stopping two horrific offenses thus far, and expect a high-scoring blowout. Michigan St. 44 Notre Dame 28

#18 Wake Forest at #24 Florida St.- What does it take to get ranked if you're the Seminoles, why just beat two non Div I-A schools and you're in. Very impressive. The 'Noles defense looked very good in its first two games, but look who they were playing against. The Demon Deacons looked shaky against Ole Miss two weeks ago, but Jevan Snead has been on a tear for the Rebels so they get a pass. I like Riley Skinner this year, I think he just suffered from the same thing Colt McCoy did, a sophomore jinx (is Herschel Walker the only player ever to avoid that?). As I said earlier this year, DJ Boldin is a stud at WR for WF, but they need to establish more of a running game. Can they do that in Tallahassee? The 'Noles do have a new QB running the show this year, so its debatable how much one can trust that offense. A lot of the evidence suggests the hometown 'Noles would pull out a victory, especially with WF's lack of a running game, but I like the minor upset. Wake Forest 20 Florida St. 17

#3 Georgia at Arizona St.- This game seems like a gimme for the Bulldogs considering their lackluster performance against South Carolina and they will be out to prove something against a good opponent on the road. However, if the Sun Devils have any semblance of a heart, they will play UGa tough. Knowshon Moreno will do what he does best, and that is shred the Sun Devils front 7 and take it to another level, possibly getting 200 yards or more. I also like ASU QB Rudy Carpenter to have a great day passing, but I'm predicting, the same as what happened to the Gamecocks last week, a last-second INT by the Bulldogs to seal the deal. Georgia 35 Arizona State 28

#6 LSU at #10 Auburn- This is by far the toughest game of the weekend to pick, hence why I saved it for last. Let's look at matchups. Auburn should do what LSU loved to do last year and that is just run the football all day and night. They have the horses with Ben Tate, Brad Lester, Tristan Davis and Mario Fannin. LSU can counter that with the likes of Trindon Holliday, Charlie Scott, Richard Murphy and Keiland Williams. While Auburn has a slight edge at QB due to more experience, the Bayou Bengals have a slightly better receiving corps with Demetrius Byrd and Brandon LaFell. This game has been too predictable in recent memory with the home team owning the series. I would love to pick the War Eagles because of their great defense, but something in my gut says LSU will win. I don't think these defending national champs are ready to give up their crown just yet. A big special teams play will decide this one, such as a Holliday KR/PR or a late FG for Auburn. LSU 24 Auburn 23